2024 will be a breathtaking year: American democracy will face monumental challenges, the Middle East will face historic upheaval, and Russia will face a stubbornness that will cause it to lose as much dignity as years of economic growth.
I've always been suspicious of year-end predictions, but have had trouble controlling my curiosity. In international affairs, problems are so often the result of protracted conflicts, sometimes unclear forces and suddenly inspired (or stubborn) individuals that it is naive to believe in any hypothesis.
Despite all this, I offer you predictions that I have been juggling for some time. Do I have full confidence in what I'm saying? Absolutely not! Are we likely to be in the same place in a year? I doubt it even more.
THE MIDDLE EAST, NEVER THE SAME AGAIN
Israel's determination and the relentlessness that comes with it will backfire. Public opinion in the democracies most outraged by Hamas's barbaric attack will express overwhelming sympathy for the Palestinian people.
Consequence: Israel will succeed in destroying the Hamas threat in the Gaza Strip, but it will face pressures that cannot be resolved in favor of greater or even complete political and territorial autonomy for the Palestinians.
THE POOR UKRAINIANS
Russia will fight against Ukraine as long as Kiev does not comply with its demands: renunciation of its territories in the east, commitment not to join NATO, change of leadership. The Russian people will sacrifice their standard of living to the pyre of Vladimir Putin's vanities.
Worse, Moscow will abandon its remaining democratic illusions to further cement its alliances with the world's least friendly dictatorships, from Iran to North Korea to China.
THE AMERICANS, HARDLY BETTER
If Donald Trump manages to overcome the legal pitfalls that await him – that is, if he wins his cases or manages to postpone them until after the presidential election – and if the Democrats continue to pit him against Joe Biden, the former president returns to the White House.
He will have to thank the zeal of his supporters as well as the dissatisfaction of a particularly large portion of Democratic voters – uninspired by the old president – to shift the result to the other camp; the kind of disillusionment Hillary Clinton suffered in 2016.
TRUMP HAS NOTHING TO LOSE
If Trump is stopped by the law, his tax escapades, or his authoritarian excesses, his supporters will be convinced that he has been cornered by the Justice Department, the state apparatus (that famous “swamp”), and all the tools at the service of the presidency To be available. One in two Americans will call the president's victory (in this case Democratic) illegitimate and the country will descend into a political, even constitutional, crisis.
In this case, I would like to tell you that I will be wrong, that the loser will welcome the victory of the winner, and that the United States will move peacefully toward full employment and 2% inflation. I'm afraid that would mislead you.
I promise you that no matter what happens, I will be with you throughout the next year, trying to understand where our world is going… and to see if I was right, even just a little bit. Happy New Year everyone!
FIVE MAJOR FOREIGN POLICY FORECASTS FOR 2024
(according to foreign policy experts)
1. United States – Presidential election
“After a grueling rematch between Biden and Trump, Joe Biden narrowly wins a second term in another election cycle marked by misinformation.”
2. Ukraine – The dead end
“The year 2024 will closely resemble the bloody but static clashes of World War I in 1915 and 1916, with deadlier battles yielding few territorial gains.”
3. North Korea – nuclear power
“North Korea conducted six nuclear tests between 2006 and 2017; 2024 will be the year it occurs for the seventh time and triggers another major diplomatic crisis on the Korean Peninsula.”
4. China – Tensions in the South China Sea
“China has spent a decade building artificial islands and real airfields, instilling fear in the region's residents. The Pentagon expects this trend to continue in 2024 and denounces the increasing recklessness of Chinese ships and aircraft throughout the theater of operations.
5. Malaria – The Great Mobilization
Finally, an encouraging note…
“Thanks to the scientific breakthroughs that led to the development of vaccines against malaria (which caused an estimated 619,000 deaths in Africa in 2021, many of them children), the global health community should see real, tangible and verifiable progress towards the goal in 2024 “The WHO’s goal is to eradicate malaria by 2030.”