Less than a month ago, Javier Milei walked onto the steps of Congress to deliver his inaugural speech as Argentine president. He spoke with his face to the supporters waiting for him under the scorching sun and his back to Parliament. It was a gesture, and then came the measures. In the government's first 20 days, the far-right issued a decree amending or striking more than 300 laws without debate, implemented a protocol of action against protests and sent a bill to Congress to expand the powers of the executive branch. This authoritarian tendency and the radicalism of the measures are gradually taking their toll on the president: the social climate is heated – the unions announced a strike at the end of January – and Milei's negative image has increased by five percentage points to 55% since he arrived at Casa Rosada is, said a consultant.
Milei's La Libertad Avanza party has no majorities in Congress – it has only 38 of 257 representatives and seven of 72 senators – and lacks its own governors with the ability to influence parliament. However, he retains the broad support that the polls have given him. Milei received 30% of the vote in the first round and won 56% in the second round against the Peronist Sergio Massa. Today, right-wing extremists live the idyll that follows election victory. His current ally, former conservative President Mauricio Macri, recommended from his own experience to move forward “with shock and without gradualism.”
To the mega-decree with more than 300 reforms to initiate the dismantling of the state, the draft law with more than 600 articles that gives a radical turn to the Argentine political, economic and social system, and the protocol banning road closures, Milei added a decalogue to economic measures, which foresee a strong adjustment, the dismissal by decree of more than 5,000 public servants hired last year and the suspension of the payment of a similar number of social assistance benefits due to “incompatibilities”, the government announced on Friday. Every day the Milei government is overwhelmed with new announcements. On the last working day of this year, presidential adviser Federico Rumpfenegger, author of the first package sent to Congress, announced that they would announce another initiative that would eliminate 160 regulations. Milei puts it succinctly: “Argentina urgently needs a change of course to prevent a catastrophe.”
“Milei is trying to dismantle the country that has been built since 1916, since secret and compulsory male suffrage was implemented. At the beginning of the 21st century there was also a regime change in Argentina that oriented the state and society towards the center-left. “What is being produced now is very strong and very fast,” says Sergio Morresi, doctor of political science and co-author of the book “It is among us.” Where does the far right come from that we didn't see coming, and how far can it go? In order to achieve this, according to the political scientist, the president is relying on a “contempt for institutions” that “has been developing for a long time” in Argentina. “Argentina continues to be a place where democracy is valued. But what does Milei mean by democracy? Do what people want as he interprets it. “That means doing what his voters, not the group, allow him to do,” explains Morresi.
Protest by social organizations and trade unions against the government of Javier Milei in Buenos Aires. Amanda Cotrim
When Milei was asked during the election campaign whether he believed in the democratic system, he did not answer the journalist's question, who demanded a clear definition. “I believe that democracy has many flaws,” the then-candidate said simply. Some have resorted to adjectives such as “Napoleonic” – as Rodrigo De Loredo, a center-right politician, has pointed out – or “messianic” – as former left-wing Uruguayan President José Mujica put it – to describe the president according to the former official acts of his government. . Also “revolutionary”, as the historian and analyst Carlos Pagni, columnist for EL PAÍS, wrote in the newspaper La Nación: “Revolutions negotiate little, they are not deliberative.” It is an idea of how society should be designed that is transferred to reality as if it were a blank piece of paper.”
The Milei government's institutional weakness in carrying out the “reconstruction” of a crisis country is offset by the support it receives from at least two actors, Morresi believes. “Milei has just won clearly and enjoys social support. In addition, in these few weeks it has received the strong and resolute support of the country's main economic groups,” shows the analyst. The political scientist adds that the far right also has the support of Together for Change, the center-right coalition he faced in the elections, and part of Peronism, which will be key to ensuring that Megadecree and the omnibus bill did not reject Congress.
The legislative chambers are one of the obstacles that the far-right measures must overcome – another is the judiciary and the third is social mobilization. Milei has maintained his challenge to the Legislature since he walked down the steps of Congress on Dec. 10 and turned his back on them. “Explain to me why Congress is against something that is good for people. Because people understood it well, right?” he said in a television interview. If Congress does not agree to his measures, he suggested that evening, he would call a referendum – which must be non-binding. He later accused “some” lawmakers of corruption: “Those who like the discussion so much are looking for bribes.” [sobornos]“.
“This form of government that he proposes has to do with his way of understanding power and recognizing the keys to his position,” believes political scientist Yanina Welp. The scientist, a specialist in democracy research, disagrees with those who argue that Milei rules unilaterally because the lack of majorities in Congress leaves him no other choice: “In democracy there are always alternatives,” he emphasizes. For example, expanding the governing coalition or negotiating each law separately are some of the options proposed on social networks. It is a “risky alternative” that could “delegitimize a necessary political agenda”. Furthermore, others warn that the polarization caused by such radical measures could further harm Argentina's fragmented society.
The more than 300 reforms imposed in the mega-decree came into force this Friday and still need to be approved by Parliament. The 664 articles of the omnibus bill are discussed by Congress in special sessions. Two scenarios open up for Welp. “If the law is passed, we would be faced with a situation very similar to that of Fujimori's Peru,” explains the political scientist. According to various analysts, Milei is trying to stir up a legitimacy conflict with parliament, as the former Peruvian president did in the early 1990s. Alberto Fuijimori came to the presidency with enormous popular support and used it to attack Congress, where he had no majorities. The frightened and delegitimized Peruvian MPs gave him special powers. The Shining Path's heavy hand against terrorism made Fujimori even more popular, and after months of attacking Congress, he ended it with a self-coup in 1992.
Social and political organizations at a demonstration in Buenos Aires on December 20th. Tiago Ramirez Baquero
“I have doubts it will happen. If this doesn’t happen, the uncertainty is greater,” warns Welp. “In the second scenario, we would be faced with a situation in which Milei would be forced to back down and govern differently,” explains Welp, who warns that “a majority views the content and approach of the reforms with a negative eye.” In recent days, the courts have received unconstitutional applications against the grand decree, considered justified by constitutional lawyers, and hundreds of thousands of people have taken to the streets to reject not only the unilateral way in which the measures are proposed, but also the content of them among other things, the privatization of public companies, the opening of businesses in dollars, the punishment of protests and the flexibilization of the labor market and the health system.
A study published this Friday by the consulting firm Zuban Córdoba y Asociados shows that his negative image has worsened by five points since Milei took office, falling from 50% to 55%. The analysis shows that since the president took office, the country has taken the “wrong” direction for more than half of the population surveyed. “Both the deregulatory DNU and the omnibus bill presented in Congress are met with significant opposition. “A majority even seems to be forming that is prepared to vote against all measures in a possible referendum,” the study says. 56% of respondents affirm that the mega-decree is “unconstitutional” and more than half affirm that they “strongly disagree” with the sending of the bill to Congress.
According to this study, the positive image is still 44%. Carla Yumatle, political philosopher and professor at the University of Torcuato Di Tella, explains that the social support that Milei still enjoys allows her to understand “the social mood” of “discontent, anger, frustration” on the part of citizens . “He has this support because he promised pain and sacrifice. “Citizens see the status quo as more costly than all the suffering Milei demands of them,” Yumatle explains. “The idea that the state hinders freedom, rather than guaranteeing it, but rather taking it away, is an unprecedented fact in Argentine political culture,” adds the theorist.
“Milei has positioned herself against the status quo. He considers the existing order to be a trap and does not believe that it is possible to get out of this trap using the mechanisms proposed by this social order. How can we bring about decisive social change? I think it creates a certain anarchy so that no one really knows where they stand. It’s a way to start a new business, a tabula rasa,” says Yumatle. However, the philosopher warns that “starting up is not the same as governing”: “What is effective at the beginning is not necessarily effective to continue later, and the fact that it starts that way does not necessarily mean that it continues that way. ” ” So”. For the analyst, it remains to be seen whether Milei will recognize this difference: “Whether he will see it or whether Congress and the citizens will force him to recognize it.”
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