Unlikely? Definitely. But not impossible.
The Broncos could theoretically trade Wilson, who has a no-trade clause, and both sides would have to work together to find a solution. Either way, a new team likely wouldn't pay more than the league minimum for a new contract for Wilson because of the different language.
As the season comes to a close, the Broncos will have to make a decision that has always been looming, but now takes on a whole new look after this week's events. Payton made a football decision to bench Wilson this Sunday against the Chargers and put Jarrett Stidham in the starting lineup, a move that also includes an important financial component. After the season, Payton will have to do something similar.
Do they cut Wilson or keep him?
If they cut him, that will result in a cap hit of $89 million plus $39 million in guaranteed money for 2024, although they can split the cap with an appointment after June 1. If they keep him, the cap hit will be more than $90 million over two seasons, plus the $37 million due in 2025.
In other words, keeping it or cutting it is similar in the short term. Regardless, the Wilson contract significantly impacts Denver and its ability to build. If Stidham impresses today, everything will be easier. He could be the Broncos' QB, they could cut Wilson and go from there.
But there was so much more that went into the move last week. An overview:
- Payton was suspicious of Wilson during his interview with the Broncos before they hired him last offseason, sources say. While he talked in the interview about turning him into a championship quarterback and how to fix him, he secretly wasn't so sure it was possible. By taking the job, he committed to trying. It did not work.
- When players watched film the week of final games, they saw an endless line of open players that Wilson couldn't find in time. Sure there were the big plays in the fourth quarter, but finding the open player in rhythm was a problem. According to sources, players saw it and spoke about it among themselves privately. Some have wondered in recent weeks whether Stidham, whom Payton signed early in free agency, would be better.
- According to sources, Payton wasn't happy with how his offense was going. He saw it at a high level with Drew Brees, and that wasn't it. They had to keep simplifying and reducing it, struggled to make plays, and rarely executed it at the speed he wanted. Wilson made unscheduled plays in the fourth quarter. But Payton was regularly annoyed by the lack of efficiency. In recent weeks he has been weighing a decision. This week, it appears Stidham has handled the offense well in practice, and optimism is rising.
- Last summer and again in October during the team's bye week, Broncos general manager George Paton discussed with the QB's longtime agent Mark Rodgers about potentially modifying Wilson's contract and pushing back the early expiration date of his injury guarantees to 2025. As things stand now The injury guarantee of $37 million in 2025 would become fully guaranteed in March 2024. Paton believes moving the date to the start of the league year in 2025 would improve Wilson's viability in both the short and long term, as it would eliminate the need for the Broncos to make a two-year decision within the next few months meeting him, which would drastically increase the chances of him becoming a Bronco in 2024. Wilson viewed being benched as a threat, as he said this week. Ultimately, he wasn't benched until seven weeks later as the Broncos were ranked 25th in offense and their playoff hopes were shattered after a 42-17 loss to the Lions, followed by a 26-23 home loss to the weak Patriots , which aired on national television on Christmas Eve, dwindled.
- Like many agents during negotiations, Rodgers took the Broncos' proposal to the NFLPA, which often consults with agents about contracts involving big-money players. The union didn't view the “threat” of a bench transfer as a real threat, and Wilson rejected the Broncos' offer, which is his right. No complaint has been filed and it is unlikely that one will be filed. One source called such negotiations “commonplace.”
- Wilson, for his part, plans to play in 2024. And if the Broncos cut him, he'll be available to a team in need of a bridge starter at probably the lowest possible minimum price.