The Detroit Lions aren't tied to the three seeds, but they're going to need a lot of help to get out of there. Here's an updated look at the NFC playoff picture.
No matter how controversial — or outright wrong — the officiating was at the end of the Detroit Lions' Saturday night matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, the result is the result. The Lions lost the game and fell to 11-5 on the season.
With the loss, the Lions' chances of finishing first in the standings are pretty great, and even finishing second seems extremely unlikely. Let's go over it all again by looking at the updated NFC playoff picture following Saturday's results.
NFC playoff picture
Head of department:
Wildcard races (top three advance):
5. Cowboys: 11-5
6. Rams: 8-7
7. Seahawks: 8-7
8. Vikings: 7-8
9. Falcons: 7-8
10. Packers: 7-8
11. Saints: 7-8
Technically, each of the top three seeds is still eligible to play for the Lions. All that matters are the final results of three teams: the 49ers, Eagles and Cowboys. As a reminder, here are the remaining games for each of these teams.
49ers:
- @Commanders (4-11)
- vs. Rams (8-7)
Eagle:
- vs. Cardinals (3-12)
- @Giants (5-10)
Cowboys:
The problem for Detroit is that they are currently in a situation where they don't have a decisive lead over any of these three teams.
Tiebreakers:
- vs. 49ers: San Francisco has a better conference record and is uncatchable (9-1 vs. 7-4)
- vs. Cowboys: Dallas is in a direct tiebreak and cannot be caught
The Eagles' tiebreaker is a little more complicated. At the moment they are ahead in the conference record (7-4 vs. 7-3), but of course that could change. The next relevant tiebreaker is the regular games, which also currently favor Philly (4-2 vs. 3-2) but could change. These common games are Vikings, Buccaneers, Cowboys, Chiefs and Seahawks. The Lions can tie this tiebreaker with a win over the Vikings.
The problem is that even if the Lions do that, the Eagles currently have the closest tiebreaker, which is strength of victory (the winning percentage of opponents each team defeats). The Eagles' winning percentage is .482, while the Lions' winning percentage is .436. In theory, this tiebreaker could change if a number of teams that beat the Lions in the last two weeks (but not the Eagles) win, but that's not very likely.
So with no tiebreaker, the Lions are in a pretty perilous position to get out of the three seeds. Let's look at what needs to happen for the Lions to get all the remaining seeds.
This is how you get number 1 in the overall ranking
Simply put, the Lions will have to finish with a better record than all three teams unless they can somehow overturn the Eagles' tiebreaker. So here's what needs to happen:
- The Lions beat the Vikings
- 49ers lose to Commanders AND Rams
- Cowboys lose to Commanders
- Eagles lose to Cardinals or Giants… probably have to lose both
This is how you get number 2 in the overall ranking
There are several ways this can be done. The “easiest” thing is that the NFC East teams lose:
- The Lions beat the Vikings
- Cowboys lose to Commanders
- Eagles lose to Cardinals AND Giants
If that's the case, both the Eagles and Cowboys will finish at 11-6 and the Lions will finish at 12-5.
However, the Lions could also jump to second place if the 49ers only had one faceplant at the end of the season.
- The Lions beat the Vikings
- 49ers lose to Commanders and Rams
In this situation, the 49ers fall to 11-6 and the Lions overtake them at 12-5. It doesn't matter what the Eagles or Cowboys do, because in the worst case scenario, the Lions would be the No. 2 seed.
If the 49ers and Eagles win this Sunday, the only way the Lions can get out of the three seeds is if both the Eagles and Cowboys lose next week and Detroit somehow comes out on top against Philly.
In short, you are now a Commanders fan.
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