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With these two high-profile cases now out of the way, many cryptocurrency executives see this as an opportunity to move forward and put a stop to the poor behavior of two industry figureheads.
As enthusiasm returns to crypto markets, industry executives are calling the start of a new bull run based primarily on two things: the Bitcoin “halving” and the possible approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the US
The halving, which occurs every four years, is an event written in the Bitcoin code. The rewards that so-called miners receive for Bitcoin mining will be halved. This limits the supply of Bitcoins, of which there will only ever be 21 million. In previous price cycles, halvings preceded a rise in the price of Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, excitement is growing that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will approve the first Bitcoin ETF after years of resistance. This would mean investors could purchase a product that tracks the price of Bitcoin without having to go to an exchange and hold the digital currency directly. The industry hopes this will attract a broader range of investors, particularly large institutional investors.
With all this excitement comes some pretty bold predictions about the price of Bitcoin. Here you will find a selection of some of them.
In 2022, Mark Mobius correctly predicted that Bitcoin would fall to $20,000 when it was trading above $28,000. He then predicted a price of $10,000, which he stuck to in 2023. However, this did not materialize as Bitcoin rallied.
For 2024, Mobius told CNBC that Bitcoin could reach $60,000 by the end of the year.
“No justification for this prediction,” Mobius said, other than that a Bitcoin ETF seems likely and “interest in the cryptocurrency has increased.”
Youwei Yang, chief economist at crypto mining firm Bit Mining, believes Bitcoin could reach a peak of $75,000 by 2024.
Yang attributes the expected price increase to the approval of a Bitcoin ETF, which will lead to higher institutional investment in Bitcoin, as well as the Bitcoin halving in May 2024, which would lead to a restriction in Bitcoin supply.
“I expect Bitcoin to be between $25,000 and $75,000 in 2024 and between $45,000 and $130,000 in 2025,” Yang said in an email.
“Although high prices are possible, not all investors will benefit due to market volatility and human tendencies toward fear and greed.”
See grafic…
The price development of Bitcoin over the last year.
Yang said ETF approval remains the biggest story for Bitcoin in 2024 – although given the scars left by the collapse of major crypto firms like Luna and FTX, and with it being an election year where the issue… become a political issue.
“Timing the market is difficult, but a gradual approach – accumulating in bear markets and taking profits in bull markets – could be a more effective strategy for those who lack early accumulation.”
James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, said the landscape for digital assets will “change significantly” in 2024, driven by the possible approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the US
“This long-awaited development is intended to expand the investor base for cryptocurrencies and integrate them more closely into traditional financial markets,” Butterfill told CNBC via email.
“It is estimated that a 20% investment increase in current assets under management (around $3 billion) could potentially push the Bitcoin price to $80,000.”
Meanwhile, the scenario of central banks cutting interest rates could also play “a crucial role” in driving Bitcoin higher, Butterfill added.
The market will also look for factors beyond the halving – which it believes is already priced into Bitcoin – that could further influence the digital coin's price.
“Although the halving is a well-known event, other elements, particularly the potential for interest rate cuts, are likely to significantly influence the price of Bitcoin in the future,” Butterfill said.
Antoni Trenchev, a well-known Bitcoin bull and co-founder of Nexo, a cryptocurrency exchange, believes that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 in 2024.
In 2022, he called for Bitcoin to reach $100,000, but that didn't happen. Instead, the price of Bitcoin collapsed this year. He refrained from making any further price forecasts.
But in a note in December, Trenchev resumed his $100,000 request for 2024, citing the halving and possible approval of multiple Bitcoin ETFs.
“For 2024, I expect the double-turbo boost from the Bitcoin halving and spot ETF approval to drive Bitcoin to $100,000, with the prospect of further highs in 2025,” Trenchev said in a note . “The path to $100,000 will be littered with unexpected potholes and double-digit declines in Bitcoin.”
Trenchev added that the biggest gains will come from digital tokens and projects “that aren’t even on the radar yet.”
In November, Standard Chartered doubled its $100,000 Bitcoin bid in April. The bank said this would be driven by the approval of numerous ETFs.
The halving will also support Bitcoin, the bank said.
In 2022, Carol Alexander, Professor of Finance at the University of Sussex, had a pretty successful streak predicting the future price of Bitcoin.
She predicted that Bitcoin would fall to $10,000 in 2022. This year, Bitcoin fell to around $15,480, according to data from CoinDesk. For 2023, Alexander said Bitcoin will rise to $50,000. Bitcoin reached an annual high of around $44,700 in early December.
Alexander told CNBC that Bitcoin trading will be between $40,000 and $55,000 in the first quarter of 2024 as “professional traders add volatility.”
The next phase will depend on when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission settles charges against Coinbase and Binance, which could be necessary before approving a Bitcoin ETF, Alexander said, echoing other commentators. The SEC sued both Coinbase and Binance in 2023.
Alexander said settlement of those charges is likely in the second or third quarter. After that, ETFs would be approved and the Bitcoin price would rise to $70,000, a new all-time high.
The price thereafter depends on the ability of ETF providers such as Blackrock and Fidelity to “equip their market makers not only to create the ETFs, but also to fend off price manipulation on exchanges” that leads to “excessive volatility.”
“Before the end of 2024, the price could exceed $100,000, but only if Blackrock and Fidelity’s market-making algorithms are able to reduce volatility,” Alexander concluded.
Matrixport, which describes itself as a crypto financial services company, published a note in November predicting that Bitcoin would reach $63,140 by April 2024 and $125,000 by the end of next year.
“Based on our inflation model, the macroeconomic environment is expected to continue to provide strong tailwinds for the cryptocurrency. Inflation is expected to decline further, which will likely prompt the Federal Reserve to initiate interest rate cuts,” Matrixport said in its report.
“Combined with geopolitical crosscurrents, this healthy dose of monetary support should propel Bitcoin to new highs in 2024.”
Many commentators see the easing of monetary policy as support for Bitcoin, which is considered a risky asset. Meanwhile, some view Bitcoin as a kind of “safe haven” in which to invest money during times of geopolitical unrest, although many disagree with this theory.
Venture capitalist CoinFund has one of the highest price calls for Bitcoin in 2024.
“Bitcoin has a strong inverse correlation with the dollar and real yields, and both are now falling,” Seth Ginns, managing partner at CoinFund, told CNBC via email. “We also expect follow-on inflows following the launch of the BTC spot ETF, as well as growing excitement over the likely approval of ETH (Ether) spot ETFs later in 2024, to be significant.”
Ginns added that he believes the industry is in the process of “regulatory normalization.”
Ginns said Bitcoin could reach $1 million per coin “in this next cycle,” but said a “more reasonable expectation” for 2024 would see Bitcoin between $250,000 and $500,000.