For those who traveled to China from abroad in 2022, the repeat in 2023 raises specters; It seems inconceivable that after getting off the plane (where there is no requirement to wear a mask), all you have to do is go through immigration, pick up your suitcase and take a taxi, without showing the results of several PCR tests or various QR codes and without weeks of quarantine in a hotel room. The changes that the Asian giant has experienced a year after the abolition of the very strict “zero Covid” policy are noticeable from the moment of its arrival. The greeting is not carried out by staff in protective suits (PPE) and activities that were suspended due to the mass restrictions have returned to normal. Although the population's enthusiasm to make up for lost time is evident, the oppressive anti-Covid measures that dominated the lives of 1.4 billion people for almost three years have left a wound that has not yet healed for many, and the second economy on the planet continues to carry the burden of these excesses and does not fully recover.
“This year was much better than 2022,” admits a 24-year-old Chinese man who identifies himself as Ansel. “But a lot has changed compared to before the pandemic,” he asserts. “Many shops, bars and restaurants have closed and have not reopened. Places that used to be busy are now pretty boring,” he says. This Beijing resident says the optimism with which he and his friends greeted the year has waned as the months have passed. In his opinion, there is a general feeling of “paranoia” and “loss of trust” due to the “great uncertainty”.
Their one-child policy generation is the most educated in China, but there is little work and salaries are lower than expected. In June, urban youth unemployment (aged 16 to 24) reached a record 21.3%, double the pre-pandemic level. In August the government decided to stop publishing statistics by age. This coincided with the release of July data that was expected to be even worse in tracking the likely job searches of the new class of college graduates, the largest in history. in the country. In November, the urban unemployment rate was 5%, unchanged from October. Ansel, who graduated in 2021, considers himself lucky to have a job related to his engineering studies, although he assures that it is “impossible for him to save”. The situation worries him and he changes certain habits – “Now I cook more” – but adds: “I won't stop doing things that I can do now and that make me happy.”
To be precise, in November 2022, hundreds of young Chinese took to the streets and, chanting “We don’t want PCR, we want our lives back!”, demanded the end of a strategy that had become untenable given the rising number of infections. through the Omicron variant. “We couldn’t continue like this,” an editor at the nationalist Global Times newspaper, who preferred to remain anonymous, told this newspaper. “Several friends were at the demonstration. [convocada] on the Liangma River. I wanted to join in too,” he admits. The spontaneous uprising of the blank pages – symbolizing the lack of freedom of expression – became the biggest expression of public discontent in Xi Jinping's decade in power and was the final spark after a month in which various anti-lockdown protests had emerged in different countries parts of the nation. A week later, the government decided to put its draconian policies against the coronavirus on hold.
Demonstrators hold blank papers and chant slogans at a protest in Beijing against anti-Covid measures on November 27, 2022. Ng Han Guan (AP)
A year later, many remember the pandemic as part of a distant past; others, like 33-year-old Wu, do not forget that the end of the measures was announced without sufficient preparation. The Chongqing native lost her grandmother during the infection tsunami after the opening: “In 2020, they managed to keep the virus at bay, but the population was not prepared for what was to come.” The abrupt change of direction in the fight against Covid-19 19 came when the country was experiencing its largest infection outbreak in the middle of winter and there was not a high rate of vaccinated elderly people. “We were afraid of the coronavirus for years and were infected from one day to the next. “We had no means to deal with something like that,” he criticizes over the phone.
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For Alicia García Herrero, chief Asia economist at Natixis, “the consequences of the zero-Covid policy were very great.” The Spanish expert had not set foot in China for three years and returned in early December, invited to participate in various forums. In a conversation with EL PAÍS, he says he has the impression that the Asian giant has taken steps backwards in terms of its knowledge of English, its relationship with foreigners and its attitude towards the world, which he defines as “much more inward-looking”.
China closed its borders on March 28, 2020 and only suspended the quarantine requirement for travelers from abroad in January this year and resumed normal issuance of visas to enter the country in March. In order to revive tourism, the economy and people-to-people contacts that have not yet begun after the end of anti-pandemic restrictions, China will allow Spanish, French and German citizens, as well as traveling Dutch, Italians and Malaysians, from December 1 Visa-free entry for tourist, business or family visits for stays of up to 15 days.
García Herrero also observed that people are “very worried about their future” and “especially about their future income,” a recurring theme in the conversations he had during his stay. “It wasn't like that before. It was a straight line [la idea de que] Everything would get better and better. “That has changed radically,” he claims.
According to the People's Bank of China (central bank), household savings increased by 17.8 trillion yuan (2.27 trillion euros) in 2022, while bank deposits increased by around 26.3 billion yuan (3.3 billion euros). . Although economists believe it's a hopeful sign that consumers have savings, the big question is when they will use them.
In November, the consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.5% year-on-year, the sharpest decline in three years, despite Beijing's goal of keeping it at around 3% in 2023. Commodities also contracted 3% in November, remaining consistent with last year in the negative range. For this reason, comparisons with neighboring Japan, which entered a period of deflation and stagnant growth after the bursting of the real estate bubble and the loss of assets in the early 1990s, are very popular.
Travelers arrive at a train station in Beijing on October 7, 2023, after the Golden Week holiday. MARK R. CRISTINO (EFE)
Economist Wang Tao, author of Making Sense of China's Economy (2023), warns against the temptation to predict the “collapse of China,” as many have done before. But he acknowledges that this post-pandemic year, people have been “disappointed by the lack of a strong recovery,” particularly in consumption, as he said in a recent online chat with correspondents. Wang sees one of the main reasons as being that the real estate sector in China is currently experiencing the “deepest recession in history”. And this is a direct blow to household confidence: 60% of their wealth is invested in real estate. When this sector weakens, the rest of the economy suffers. But she also believes that the government has already taken shock measures and that more are on the way that will help “stabilize” the situation in the coming months, adds the also chief economist for China and head of economic studies for Asia at the UBS added. in Hong Kong.
Confidence in the real estate sector has been in free fall since February (investment fell 9.4% year-on-year between January and November) and property sales by area fell 8% year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2023 According to the National Statistics Office, the number has fallen by more than 32% compared to 2019, before the pandemic and the housing market crisis.
Liu, 34, sees the future as quite bleak. The young man, who emigrated to Beijing 15 years ago, divides his time between writing novels and screenplays and working in a bar where he serves an often creative crowd – on one of the walls there is a kind of altar for the Chilean writer Roberto Bolaño. —. In his opinion, the three years in prison caused chaos. “When the blockade ended a year ago, I felt that the trauma was really there, and I could see the feeling of post-traumatic stress in many people,” he said on Wechat (the Chinese WhatsApp) one day this week. In your generation, the idea has formed that the “carefree days” of the past are over; and he says a feeling of “urgency” comes over him. “Everyone knows that things are going to get worse, so you can’t ignore it [el futuro] more time. And you have to plan. Decide whether you want to go abroad or at least save money.” The bar he runs is doing worse than in 2022, he assures. And writing isn't going so well either: given the economic situation, there aren't many opportunities in the cultural media. He wants to get this year over with as quickly as possible, he adds with a pessimistic expression.
Although millions of Chinese people had to buckle up in 2023, there is more movement everywhere during the holiday season. In summer, during the peak tourist season, the long queues in front of the country's attractions were back. And this winter, the ski slopes – a sport that became popular in China after the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing – look completely different than last year.
Thaiwoo station, an hour by high-speed train from the capital, was almost a ghost village between mountains a year ago. This year the season is busy. When traveling by train there are hardly any free seats, the queues at the chair lifts are long and the hotels are full. In this place, a few weeks ago, 49-year-old businessman Wu You Wen opened a Spanish restaurant called Puerta 20 at the foot of the slope, where he serves everything: croquettes, Iberian ham, paellas. “Last year there was no one here, now new restaurants and bars have opened and people are coming from all over the country,” Wu said this week as he sat at a table in the eatery, speaking perfect Spanish. At the entrance there was a large stove on which rice could be prepared for an event organized by a luxury car brand. “Now we can travel freely without showing QR codes and without taking PCR tests. People can also leave China and there is no need to quarantine between cities or countries,” he said. Regarding the economic recovery, Wu replied that it was progressing “step by step”.
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