Leading up to the November 5, 2024 election, the United States will experience moments worthy of a suspense thriller with developments in the courts, Congress, and primary contests in each of the 50 states. President Joe Biden is responding to an impeachment inquiry motivated by his son Hunter Biden's shady dealings with Russia and China. Experts say the chances of the Democrat being removed from office are virtually impossible. Republican tycoon and former President Donald Trump will stand trial after being formally accused of multiple crimes, including meddling in the 2020 election, illegally removing and possessing classified materials from the White House, and paying bribes to a former porn actress in exchange for silence about an alleged extramarital affair. Recent polls suggest Trump has a strong chance of returning to the world's most powerful post.
Political historian James Naylor Green, a professor at Brown University (in Rhode Island), said post One of Trump's first actions is certain if he wins reelection and rules out the possibility that the Republican will not win the party's nomination. “Neither Ron DeSantis (Governor of Florida) nor Nikki Haley (former US Ambassador to the United Nations) has a chance of blocking Trump’s nomination. Both are betting on the possibility that the allegations against him will cause him to drop out of the race.” “But the former president must be reelected to clear himself on at least one of the three major federal crimes cases he is responding to to pardon: in Washington, New York or Florida,” he estimated. “Even though a president has never pardoned himself, Trump will do so on his first day in office if he wins the election.”
James Green sees no serious candidate who could threaten Biden. “Theoretically, that could change if Biden decides not to run again, as Lyndon Baines Johnson did in 1968, but I think that’s unlikely. The race will be between Biden and Trump,” he guarantees. The Republicans will open the intraparty competition with the faction in the state of Iowa on January 15th. Eight days later, primaries for both parties will take place in New Hampshire. All eyes will be on the socalled Super Tuesday on March 5, when 17 states go to the polls to elect delegates who will be crucial to electing candidates Democrats and Republicans on November 5. Trump's participation in the Colorado primary is unclear; On December 19, the Colorado court removed him from the case because it deemed his actions related to the 2021 attack on the Capitol made him ineligible.
By the end of March, 50% of the delegates will be elected. If all predictions are confirmed, Trump's name will be officially announced on July 18 during the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Biden is expected to be inaugurated at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on August 22.
David A. Bateman, a professor in the Department of Government at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York, told the reporter that he sees good chances for Trump's election, but does not rule out a heated dispute between Republicans. “The parties are so divided and the country is so polarized that whoever gets the nomination can win. Various voters are repulsed and sympathetic to Trump, but I think there is a larger rejection. Trump hasn't changed much since 2016, and so on. “If you're attracted to that, you have no reason to change,” he said.
conviction
Bateman sees a real possibility that the tycoon will be convicted in one of the trials, jeopardizing the election. “If he were found guilty before the election, his chances of winning in November would be significantly reduced. If this were to happen after his election, we would have a constitutional crisis,” he warned. For the first time, a sitting president would be charged with a federal crime. According to the scientist, if he is acquitted before November, Donald Trump would be in a very good position to return to the White House.
The Cornell University professor doesn't hurt Biden's chances of remaining tenant of the White House. “He probably has a slight preference. Sitting presidents usually have a significant advantage in the election campaign,” recalls Bateman. In recent election cycles, Democrats have turned out in droves, which could be a positive factor for Biden. “However, he is performing poorly in public opinion polls and shows no signs of improvement. I think the election is close to a 55 bet, with a slight edge for Biden,” he added.
David Bateman is betting that Haley or DeSantis are the two most likely alternatives to Trump. “That could change, but we haven't seen any evidence yet that there's much interest in anyone else in the Republican Party. Trump's only significant rival in the Democratic Party is Biden. He will get the nomination unless he dies,” he assured . The fact that he is 81 years old also speaks against Biden at the end of his term in office he would be 85. When he was elected in 2020, he was already the oldest of all sitting US presidents.
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