The Yemeni movement is using the raids to underline its solidarity with the Palestinians. Facing repeated attacks, the White House has three needs: ensure security on a strategic trade route; avoid escalation; He resisted pressure from a wing of Congress that accuses Joe Biden of being too cautious
The Red Sea challenge is a dangerous balancing act in which the protagonists flex their muscles, strike, but at the same time try to avoid all-out conflict. Even though day by day we are approaching the point of no return and the information is not always verifiable.
On Sunday, U.S. waterway protection forces responded to another act of piracy by the pro-Iranian Houthis by destroying three small boats that had attempted to attack a cargo ship with helicopters. On Monday evening there were reports – later denied – of another firefight between a US ship and Yemeni lookouts. Tehran, meanwhile, moved one of its frigates, the Alborz, to the area, while the Shiite faction reiterated that it would continue attacks on maritime transport as long as Israel remained in the Gaza Strip. Chained crises with far-reaching effects.
Facing repeated attacks, the White House has three needs: ensure security on a strategic trade route; avoid escalation; He resisted pressure from a wing of Congress that accuses Joe Biden of being too cautious. According to the media, the Pentagon is considering plans to increase the strength of the retaliation and sink the boats as a first test of a limited but direct confrontation. There are those who do not rule out cruise missile attacks, as happened in 2016, operations against bases used to launch drones and anti-ship missile batteries.
The Americans could try to establish rules of conduct similar to those with the Iranian-backed militias in Syria and Iraq: any armed provocation will be met with an appropriate response. An attempt to enforce a principle of deterrence without triggering another war. Scenario feared by Washington, but also by local allies such as Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, as well as Western allies. France and Italy are in favor of protecting shipping, but have withdrawn from the coalition formed by the US. Interventionist Britain: Ready to trade with its fighters, according to the Times newspaper. The central point remains: Will any military steps end the militia threat? The solution depends not only on the United States, but obviously depends on the decisions of the Houthis and to a large extent on the influence of the Iranian sponsor.
The Yemeni movement is using the incursions to underline its solidarity with the Palestinians, to demonstrate its ability to influence the situation through relatively cheap (but effective) means, to elevate its own status and to cooperate with Tehran Interested in maneuvers without payment is price. According to analysts, the Houthis and the Iranians are pursuing a binary strategy: they fire slowly (here are the selected attacks) and hope to avoid irreversible moves.
Iran follows a habitual path in which its leaders use strong words but then leave the facts to friendly militias, which are often deployed to counter Israel's strikes. A formal attempt to separate responsibilities. Jerusalem, in turn, is doing everything it can to expose the operational, ideological and military connections between the ayatollahs and the movements. Washington's approach is mixed. To contain tensions, the Americans initially viewed Tehran's involvement in the numerous conspiracies, including the Houthi attacks, as minor. And they said it publicly. A position that was then changed due to the worsening of the dangers to shipping. US intelligence accuses the Iranians of specifically supporting Yemeni fighters in their operations around the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. A rethink that could foreshadow a US retaliation full of unknowns. Regardless of developments, a serious lesson emerged from this story. The system is fragile and all it takes is one small actor – if he is well organized – to shake it up.
Corriere della Sera also on WhatsApp. Just click here to subscribe to the channel and stay up to date.
January 1, 2024 (changed January 1, 2024 | 11:05 p.m.)
© ALL RIGHTS RESERVED