If we were betting on a new war in the Middle East, Israel would have increased its chances by attacking several Hamas leaders in Beirut on Tuesday. Israel's army, the IDF, still does not want to officially comment on the drone attack on the office of Saleh al-Aruri, Hamas' number two. However, it is a fact that Israel is responsible for the killing – that is, for the fact that the likelihood of the war in Gaza turning into a two-front war is currently increasing again.
Since the Hamas attack on October 7, the Israeli army and government have been talking about a second war of independence. The formulation reveals what has been at stake ever since from the perspective of the Jewish State: the existence of Israel. This is what you need to know to understand why Israel is willing to up its stakes even further. The attack on Saleh al-Aruri could have unpredictable regional and geopolitical consequences for everyone involved.