The double explosion that killed 84 people in southern Iran on Wednesday is the deadliest attack in the country in more than four decades. Described by authorities as a “terrorist” act, it is fueling fears of a regional conflagration linked to the war between Israel and Hamas.
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Here's what we know about this attack, which the government has opened an investigation into:
The course
The attack targeted a crowd that had gathered during a memorial ceremony near the Saheb al-Zaman mosque, which houses the tomb of General Soleimani, the former architect of Iranian military operations in the Middle East, who died in January 2020 was killed in an American attack in Iraq.
According to the official Irna agency, citing “an informed source,” the first explosion was caused by a suicide bomber, a man whose body was blown to pieces. Secondly, the investigation is continuing, but according to Irna it was most likely a suicide bomber.
The first explosion occurred around 2:45 p.m. local time, about 700 meters from the Iranian general's grave, and the second 15 minutes later.
Authors
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, promised a “tough response” to the “evil and criminal enemies of the Iranian nation” who were responsible for the attack.
For his part, the head of the Quds Force – the external operations branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – General Esmaïl Qaani suggested that the perpetrators were “provided by the United States and the Zionist regime.”
The State Department in Washington dismissed as “absurd” any suggestion of involvement by the United States or Israel, whose governments had not commented on the attack.
Ali Vaez, an Iran-focused researcher at the International Crisis Group think tank, believes the attack did not have “the hallmarks of previous Israeli covert operations in Iran,” pointing to the assassinations of nuclear officials attributed to Israel.
“However, this corresponds to the approach of the terrorist militia Islamic State” (IS), he stated on X.
If the attack came from Israel, Mr. Vaez believes, “it would be part of a campaign of maximum provocation,” especially after the recent Israeli attack against Hamas No. 2 in Beirut and the elimination of a top Revolutionary Guard commander near Damascus.
Thursday's attack was the deadliest in Iran since 1978, when an arson attack at a cinema in Abadan killed at least 377 people, according to AFP archives.
For the former head of the parliamentary National Security Commission, Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, the attacks may have involved Sunni extremist groups, but they “would not have been possible without” American and Israeli intelligence services. In particular, he cites the possible involvement of members of IS and Jaish al-Adl, a Sunni extremist group founded in 2012.
The results
The attack could be “a signal to force Iran to negotiate and ask it to cooperate in dealing with regional tensions,” says the former lawmaker.
The United States has accused Iran of “actively facilitating” attacks on American military bases in the Middle East and being “deeply involved” in attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on merchant ships in the Red Sea.
The Lebanese Islamist movement Hezbollah, an ally of Iran, has carried out almost daily shootings in northern Israel since the war between Israel and Hamas began on October 7.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raïssi said Iran considers it “its duty to support the groups in the war against Israel,” but stressed that they are “independent in (…) their decision and actions.”
Iran is engaged in a shadow war with Israel and is also fighting various jihadist and militant groups, particularly in the south and southeast of the country, which have suffered multiple attacks in recent years.
If Iran “blames Israel, it will probably try to respond in the same way by targeting high value targets or soft targets somewhere,” Mr. Vaez said: “If it blames ISIS or separatist groups, we have to go with it Expect arrests or executions, even rocket attacks on their bases in the region.”