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North Korea fired around 200 shells into the Yellow Sea on Friday towards the South Korean islands of Yeonpyeong and Baengnyeong.
Published on May 1, 2024 1:04 p.m
Reading time: 3 minutes
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during the 2024 New Year celebrations along with his daughter and wife in Pyongyang, December 31, 2023. (STR / KCNA VIA KNS)
“This type of incident is always very serious,” analyzed Dorian Malovic on franceinfo on Friday, January 5, after North Korea fired around 200 shells into the Yellow Sea, forcing South Korea to provide protection for its residents on the islands of Yeonpyeong and Baengnyeong civilians to apply. According to the permanent correspondent of the newspaper La Croix in Tokyo and author of books on North Korea, these actions mark “North Korea's desire to show that today it no longer wants to negotiate and no longer come closer.”
franceinfo: Are we in a serious incident? And why is North Korea interfering in this today?
Dorian Malovic: Incidents of this type are always very serious. We sometimes tend to underestimate North Korea by saying: “It fires a few shells, it wants to show that it is there.” But the context is still very different today than it was a few years ago. Yeonpyeong has 2,000 residents, but you have 5,000 soldiers on this island, you can see the North Korean coast right in front of you. All residents are still traumatized by the events of 2010. Everyone knows that despite the apparent calm in a heavenly environment, this place remains very dangerous. And in recent months we have seen tensions between the two Koreas continue to rise. You have a new South Korean president who is much more “warmongering” than the previous one. President Moon Jae-in was more focused on negotiation, unification and dialogue. Now it's over. And we still have to remember that Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, feels he is growing as his alliance with Moscow strengthens and China's continued support for Pyongyang. So the North Korean leader says to himself, “Okay, now I want to speak up, I'll continue with my technological improvements in missiles and nuclear weapons and I'll get my way.”
Can we talk about a maritime front line in relation to these islands that you know? Are they strategic?
They are of strategic importance as they are very close to the maritime demarcation line to the north. It's still 100 km from Seoul and they're relatively easy destinations. These are actions that nevertheless show North Korea's desire to no longer negotiate and no longer want to come closer together. And what's more, Kim Jong-un said clearly on New Year's Day at the end of December that the unification of the two Koreas was no longer possible, that they were two completely autonomous and separate states and that each had to follow its own path. And it is true that this implies tensions between two nations that, at least on Pyongyang's side, no longer seek reunification.
We find ourselves more than ever in a logic of confrontation.
More than ever before. Presidential elections will take place in Taiwan in ten days, which will also shape all tensions in the Far East region. And next November there will be elections in the USA, which are also eagerly awaited in the region. Because if Trump comes back to power, we know that all the cards will be redistributed. North Korea is seizing the opportunity to position itself, knowing full well that the North Korean side is now more than ever the last priority for American diplomacy, especially vis-à-vis Ukraine, Israel and Hamas.
China calls for calm. Does she have the means to enforce it?
Not at all, there is not much influence from China on North Korea to ask them to stop, because China needs this buffer state between South Korea and its own borders. It is not China that will be able to stop North Korea's technological and nuclear development overnight.