The labor market in the United States again proved significantly more stable than expected in December, making the possibility of a soft landing for the US economy even more credible as inflation gradually moves towards the Fed's target.
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In the final month of the year, 216,000 jobs were created, compared with 173,000 in November, the data for which was revised downwards, according to figures released by the Labor Department on Friday.
The December figure is well above analysts' expectations of 162,000 jobs created, according to the briefing.com consensus.
However, this increase hides signs of easing in the labor market, as part-time employment is increasing and the labor force participation rate, although still high, is slightly down compared to the previous month.
These slight fluctuations within the market explain in particular that the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 3.7%, the lowest level since July.
This means that the American economy begins the year 2024, which will be marked by the presidential election, with a still historically low unemployment rate.
“We are seeing a more balanced labor market, where labor demand and supply are now more in line and the upward pressure on wages is not excessive,” the chef emphasized to AFP. EY economist Gregogy Daco.
Labor Department figures confirm the previous day's trend in private sector job creation, estimated at 164,000 in December, according to the monthly ADP/Stanford Lab survey.
ADP chief economist Nela Richardson, quoted in the press release, emphasized that “the labor market is returning to levels very close to pre-pandemic levels.”
It is also a sign that the labor shortage that has been affecting the American labor market for more than two years appears to be finally over, that wage increases are more moderate and that there is no “danger of fueling the price-price spiral. salaries,” Ms. Richardson said.
The latter still rose 0.4% compared to November, up 4.1% in a year, according to Labor Department data.
“The unemployment rate remains at historically low levels,” HFE chief economist Rubeela Farooqi confirmed in a note, “the economy continues to create jobs at a robust pace.”
Nevertheless, the labor market continues its soft landing; In 2023, the American economy added an average of 225,000 jobs per month, a far cry from the unprecedented average of 399,000 per month in 2022.
For the full year, 2.7 million additional jobs were created, compared to 4.8 million in 2022.
“We continue to see a gradual rebalancing of the labor market, with a decline in hiring and strategic layoffs, but no clear shift in the labor market,” explained Mr. Daco.
But the strength of the labor market could lead the Federal Reserve (Fed) to wait a little longer before considering easing monetary policy.
The American economy has actually held up well, despite the historically rapid rise in interest rates since March 2022, now between 5.25% and 5.50%.
Certainly, the Fed's favored rise in the PCE inflation index has come very close to the 2% target with 2.6% over a year in November, but inflation, especially in the services sector, still remains high, which calls for caution in the American Central Bank.
“For Fed officials, this data supports the idea that it is necessary to maintain restrictive policies for a while longer. But we expect the next move to probably be lower by mid-year,” Ms Farooqi said.