The Yankees were linked to a free agent yesterday Blake Snell but it seems they are also exploring the trading market. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Yankees and Orioles have “genuine” interest Dylan Stop it. The O's were previously linked to Cease and MASNsports.com's Roch Kubatko reported earlier this week that they “remain engaged” to the White Sox. Rosenthal adds that the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox, who have already been reported to be interested in Cease, may still be in the mix, with other clubs potentially involved as well. The Braves and Reds, who once had interest in Cease, appear to have moved on to other targets, trading Atlanta for it Chris Sale and the Reds sign Frankie Montas And Nick Martinez.
Rumors about Cease have been circulating all winter, but he's staying with the White Sox for now. About a month ago, it was reported that the White Sox were “withdrawing” from truce negotiations. This wasn't meant to take him off the market, but rather the Sox wanted to wait Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed to see if clubs that had missed him would switch to Cease as a replacement.
Given the Yankees' interest, that appears to be exactly the case. They were one of the clubs closely linked to Yamamoto before he signed with the Dodgers, so the Yanks looked elsewhere. They considered both Snell and a free agent Jordan Montgomery But I'll also get in touch with Cease.
For the Americans they have it Gerrit Cole have settled into the top spot of their rotation, but after that everything becomes more unclear. Carlos Rodon And Nestor Cortes have the potential to be excellent contributors, but both struggled greatly in 2023, both with injuries and poor performance. Clarke Smith will likely be in play at the back of the rotation, but the club has lost depth as a result Juan Soto Trade, like Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito And Randy Vasquez are now all Padres. The addition of another starting pitcher and the possibility of Rodón and Cortes getting some rest would give the club a very strong front four, with Schmidt likely at the fifth position and pitchers similar Clayton Beeter, Yoendrys Gomez, Luis Gil And Will Warren provides depth.
Cease would improve any rotation in the league, despite a relatively poor year in 2023. He had a 2.20 earned run average in 2022, but that rose to 4.58 last year, despite his underlying numbers paint a less drastic picture. His success in 2022 isn't likely to last anyway, given his .260 batting average on balls in play and his 82.3% strand rate, both of which are on the fortunate side. Those numbers increased to .330 and 69.4% in 2023, resulting in a few additional runs. His strikeout and swinging-strike rates declined slightly, but both were still well above average. His FIP of 3.10 in 2022 jumped to 3.72 in 2023, indicating a far less worrisome change, while his SIERA rose from 3.48 to 4.10.
Looking at the last three years as a whole balances out some of that happiness and color, creating an incredibly flattering portrait. He has made 97 starts since the start of 2021 with a 3.54 ERA and a 29.8% strikeout rate. While the 10.1% walk rate is high, FanGraphs' 12.6 wins above replacement during that time ranks him eighth among all MLB pitchers.
His appeal extends beyond his abilities, as his earning potential is still limited by the arbitration system. MLBTR's Matt Swartz expects Cease to make $8.8 million in salary this year and is due a raise in 2025 before reaching free agency.
According to Roster Resource, the Yankees currently have a competitive balance sheet of $290 million. They are expected to pay the tax for the third time in a row in 2024, which will subject them to increasing penalties. They are already above the third level of $277 million and are approaching the fourth and final level of $297 million. This means they face a 95% tax rate on current spending until they pass the final limit, and then a 110% tax rate on spending from that point onwards.
Signing a player like Snell or Montgomery would likely require the Yanks to pay a salary of around $25 million or more, with taxes virtually doubling that salary. Given that Cease will earn about a third of that salary, that would obviously make him more attractive.
But the flip side of that equation is that Cease also has to send something to the White Sox in return, likely a very significant package of talented young players. The Yanks just sent away a large amount of young pitchers as part of the Soto deal and may not be willing to significantly weaken their talent pipeline again. As for the Sox' expectations, Rosenthal says they're “remaining open-minded” and “not necessarily inclined to favor a team that might have top-notch pitching.”
Since the O's also have “genuine” interest, they could have an advantage over the Yankees when it comes to the talent to make a deal. Despite an increasing number of young players making it to the major leagues in recent years, they are still considered by many evaluators to be the best farm system in the league. Jackson Holiday is almost certainly untouchable, but the club also has people like him Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, Jordan Westburg, Samuel Basallo, Heston Kjerstad And Joey Ortiz without enough vacancies for everyone.
The club has also shown a bias against making bold moves, both on the trade market and in free agency, which is why it has a busy farm system and almost no money on the books. If they decide now is the time to strike, Cease would fit well in a rotation with plenty of talent but limited experience. Kyle Bradish And Grayson Rodríguez are at the top of the rotation for now after both showed encouraging signs in 2023, but Bradish has less than two full years in the big leagues and Rodriguez has less than one. And then there's John meanswho hasn't pitched much in the last two years due to Tommy John surgery, and guys like him Dean Kremer And Cole Irvin Backend options.
As mentioned, clubs like the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Red Sox may still be involved, and that may not even be the extent of the market. But with Yamamoto no longer in charge, the pitching market in general appears to be heating up and a ceasefire trade could happen at any time.