As the 2023 NFL regular season comes to a close, half of the league will turn its attention to the playoffs, while the other half will focus on who to draft and which players will be available in free agency. No games are played from March to August, but seasons can be lost or won during this period.
Last offseason was pretty wild: Tom Brady left for the second time, Aaron Rodgers was traded to the New York Jets, the New Orleans Saints traded Sean Payton to the Denver Broncos, and the Carolina Panthers made a trade for the No. 1 overall pick Deselect. What will happen this year?
Below we'll break down 10 crazy predictions for the 2024 offseason. Let's start with the backup quarterback market.
10. The backup QB market is exploding
In total, there are 61 different quarterbacks starting this season, which is seventh all-time. Some teams – like the Cleveland Browns – have been able to recover from the loss of their starter at the most important position. But there are other teams that have completely fallen apart, like the Jets. This No. 2 quarterback is clearly important. Just look at the Indianapolis Colts, who lost their starter for the year in Week 5, but free agent pick Gardner Minshew has them in playoff contention.
The managing directors take note of this and plan for it in the budget. This time around, the backup quarterback market will be hot in free agency. Last year, the Washington Commanders' Jacoby Brissett was the highest-paid backup at $8 million, despite being in a position battle with Sam Howell. Perhaps it's fair to say that the highest-paid backup was Taylor Heinicke, a former Commander who signed a two-year, $14 million deal in free agency with the Atlanta Falcons ($7 million AAV).
This offseason, several backup quarterbacks are being paid more than $10 million as their services are wanted by multiple teams. Some quarterbacks who could be attractive options as free agents include Ryan Tannehill, Brissett again, Tyrod Taylor, Sam Darnold, Jameis Winston, Drew Lock, Minshew and Mason Rudolph.
9. In the Chiefs-Bengals rivalry, another player switches sides
Last offseason, we saw Patrick Mahomes' blindside blocker Orlando Brown Jr. switch sides and take his talents to rival Cincinnati. This offseason we will see the opposite. A Bengali apostate.
The Chiefs' 2023 campaign put Mahomes' weapons in the spotlight. Travis Kelce hasn't been as explosive, while Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore are all averaging less than 20 yards per game. Rashee Rice was a nice addition in the draft, but he can't carry the passing game on his own. One of the best wide receivers in this free agency class is currently playing in Cincinnati, and that is Tee Higgins.
With the contracts the Bengals have given to Joe Burrow and are likely willing to give to Ja'Marr Chase, it feels like Higgins will be playing somewhere else in 2024. He's worth good money that Cincinnati may not be willing to pay. I predict the Chiefs will step up and sign the soon-to-be 25-year-old receiver to pair with Mahomes.
Higgins caught 67 passes for 908 yards and six touchdowns in his rookie season in 2020 and has 1,000 receiving yards in each of the last two seasons. Injuries caused him to miss time in 2023, but that shouldn't drastically affect his market.
8. Ben Johnson turns down the Panthers and is hired by the Chargers
Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson decided last offseason to postpone his search for a head coaching job to return to Detroit. He was a candidate considered by a handful of teams, including the Panthers. Last January, he was scheduled to interview with Carolina, but canceled the week and decided to stay put. Johnson is expected to be a hot candidate in the head coaching market this offseason.
The 37-year-old was born in Charleston, South Carolina, attended high school in Asheville and attended college in Chapel Hill. Many will be hoping to bring back the “Carolina Kid” to bring the Panthers back to life, but that isn’t happening. Johnson takes one look at the state of the Panthers franchise, says “no thanks” and accepts another chance on the West Coast with Justin Herbert and the Chargers.
7. A real RB revolt begins as some consider position changes
One of the major storylines of last offseason revolved around the running back position and how the league views it in the current era. Six players received the franchise tag last year: a quarterback, a tight end, a defensive tackle and three running backs. The three running backs were the only players who did not agree to long-term contracts before the July 17 deadline. Running backs weren't paid despite impressive campaigns. Colts running back Jonathan Taylor broke through with a three-year, $42 million extension that included $26.5 million guaranteed, but Zack Moss was just as good.
If you think last year was dramatic with the running back position, just wait until this year. Here are some of the players who will be looking for new lucrative deals in free agency: Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, Saquon Barkley, Austin Ekeler, JK Dobbins, AJ Dillon and the aforementioned Moss. Will any team step up and pay the money some of these stars want? My guess is no.
This offseason, the running backs will take the next step and attempt to form their own union after failing to find legitimate interest on the open market. Some, like Barkley and Pollard, will even consider moving to receiver. I'd like to see Derrick Henry as a pass rusher, but maybe that's a bit of a stretch.
6. NFL makes big kickoff change
In 2022, the NFL introduced a new fair catch rule for kickoffs, in which returners could claim a fair catch behind their own 25-yard line and the ball would be placed at the 25-yard line. This offseason, the league will make a completely different change, adopting the XFL's kickoff format.
In the XFL, teams start from their own 30-yard line. The kicking team's players, minus the kicker, line up at the receiving team's 35-yard line. On the receiving team, every player except the returner lines up five yards away at their own 30. Only the kicker and returner are allowed to move before the ball is on the field, and the ball must be kicked beyond the 20.
This format not only encourages kick returns, but also prevents violent collisions that occur on kickoffs – or at least before.
Speaking of the NFL borrowing from the XFL…
5. NFL ties in with the UFL
Just last month, the USFL and XFL announced they were merging to form the United Football League. Maybe this will give both former leagues a better chance of survival, but what would really help is if the NFL joins the UFL and takes it over as a sort of “farm league.” This would guarantee the survival of the “Spring League,” but it is more than that.
This potential marriage only makes sense if it makes dollars and cents. At least that's probably how the NFL sees it. But they are convinced by the UFL's stance, which includes the inevitability of an NFL “minor league” that gives NFL decision-makers a big say in how the league is run, and then the simple fact that the UFL could serve as a playground to try out different ideas about the game of football, be it possible rule changes or the way the game is broadcast overall.
4. Michael Penix will be drafted in the top five
Washington's quarterback has been one of college football's best players over the past two seasons. The Indiana transfer was one of the 2022 AP Comeback Players of the Year after throwing for 4,641 yards, 31 touchdowns and eight interceptions and has 4,648 yards, 35 touchdowns, nine interceptions and one appearance in college last season Football Playoffs somehow went one better. In the semifinal against Texas, Penix threw for 430 yards and two touchdowns. Now the 23-year-old has the chance to become national champion.
Penix became the first quarterback since Mahomes to throw for 4,500 yards in back-to-back seasons. As for his calling card as a prospect, everyone will say it's “poor talent.” What is “poor talent”? It's about being able to throw the football virtually anywhere on the field, even off the platform. I say it's the kind of arm talent that can make a good quarterback great.
After two dominant seasons and a college football championship, Penix stock is going crazy.
3. Bill's interim OC gets a head coaching job
When the Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey after an embarrassing loss to the Broncos, many viewed him as a sacrificial lamb for larger problems in Buffalo. Considering how the Bills have fared since then, that narrative has lost its power. If you want a good example of a sacrificial lamb, look again at how the Panthers handled Dorsey's eventual successor, Joe Brady, a few years ago.
In 2021, the Panthers fired offensive coordinator Joe Brady after a 5-7 start. It did nothing to cheer up the Matt Rhule-led Panthers, who didn't win another game this season. With Brady, people forget everything that happened before Rhule got rid of him.
As a 30-year-old first-year offensive coordinator in the NFL, Brady helped produce two 1,000-yard receivers while the Panthers struggled with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. Carolina didn't have a good offense by any means, but everyone knew who “Brady the Broyles Award Winner” was considering he was part of the greatest offense in college football history at LSU the year before. I'm talking, of course, about the magical 2019 season in which the Tigers went undefeated and Burrow won the Heisman. After his first NFL season, young Brady received interview requests from several teams interested in hiring him as a lead man. A head coach!
There is no doubt that Brady has helped the Bills' offense since his promotion. Entering Week 17, the Bills had averaged 158.4 rushing yards per game since he took over in Week 11, tied for second-most in the NFL. Buffalo also ranks seventh in the NFL, averaging 28.2 points per game since Week 11. My crazy prediction is that the Falcons firing Arthur Smith take Brady away as head coach at 34 years old.
2. Bill Belichick will be traded to Washington
I am not the originator of this theory as this is the first time this possible move has been mentioned publicly Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk. But I've been thinking about it for months.
Many expect the New England Patriots to part ways with legendary head coach Bill Belichick this offseason, but it's hard to imagine him being fired, and it doesn't seem like he'll be retiring either consider how close he is to Don Shula's record. That means he's being traded! NFL Media reported a few months ago that Robert Kraft wanted some sort of compensation for Belichick, which makes sense.
No, a 71-year-old Belichick isn't going to land a first-round pick on the market. I don't know what either team will accomplish in terms of a Day 2 or 3 pick, but new Commanders owner Josh Harris will want to make a big move after parting ways with Ron Rivera. That would certainly be lively.
1. Tom Brady and Patriots are in a neck-and-neck race for Jim Harbaugh
Jim Harbaugh has led Michigan to three straight college football playoff appearances and is ranked No. 1 this year. His potential return to the NFL has been rumored for years, and this offseason will be no different. You never know what Harbaugh will do, but I expect he will allow some “wooing.”
Enter the Las Vegas Raiders and the Patriots. Did Antonio Pierce do enough to earn the full-time job in Vegas? Yes. Will the Raiders give it to him right away? Probably not. As for the Patriots, Belichick is expected to be out one way or another, and I've already sent him to Washington above.
Brady's status as a minority owner of the Raiders has not yet been finalized, but it may not come into effect until this offseason. The Michigan graduate will go to work recruiting Harbaugh, but so will Robert Kraft. Brady and the Patriots will face off for the first time off the field in a dramatic recruiting battle that will ultimately be in vain as Harbaugh remains at Michigan.