Guido Crosetto no longer knows how to say it in government meetings, at European summits, at NATO summits, at diplomatic meetings: “It's a fairy tale to imagine the West as a kind of Hulk directed against the seven dwarves. ” It is not so. That's no longer the case.” The Italian Defense Minister feels like he's screaming in the desert when he brings up the topic. Some time ago he confided that “only Americans listen to me.” But successive crises attest that “the comparison between the world of democracies and the world of autocracies promises to be harsh, difficult and challenging.” And with an unexpected outcome. If, after almost two years, the war in Ukraine is relegated to short news articles, it is because it is becoming a dangerous obstacle: because of the fatigue of Western public opinion, because of the political difficulties of the nations defending Kiev, and because of the critical soldiers , tormenting those who oppose Vladimir Putin's plan.
A few weeks ago, Crosetto described the situation when he spoke about it at the conference of Italian ambassadors to the world. He used a closed session to show the weakness of the “Hulk” and the power of the “seven dwarves”: “The supply strength of all NATO countries combined – he said – is significantly lower than that of Russia.” Moscow is thanks to its industry and the Aid from China, Iran and North Korea is able to replenish its arsenals at a pace that the West cannot keep up with.” In short, there is no consensus. And the defense minister concluded the speech with a sombre sentence aimed at diplomats: “I invite you to think about this issue.”
A consideration that was also requested by the government when it presented the eighth aid package for Ukraine. And he also passed this on to the representatives of the Parliamentary Committee for the Security of the Republic when he reported on the weapons destined for Kiev. According to rough calculations, Italy has so far spent more than one and a half billion to support the resistance. But that is not the point, because – as Crosetto emphasized in a recent interview with Il Foglio – “we cannot think of defending the economy by forgetting what it means to defend democratic principles.” That is why we will “Continue to send the necessary weapons to those who need to defend themselves in 2024.”
The supply difficulties for Kiev are also the result of short-sighted decisions by the West and especially the EU. In Corriere, Federico Fubini highlighted that the European defense industry continues to transfer half of its production to countries with which it has already signed contracts. Therefore, Volodymyr Zelensky does not have the necessary artillery pieces to effectively counter Putin's rocket attacks, which, as the services had predicted, were aimed at Ukrainian infrastructure “to make the winter in Kiev even harsher.”
But for Crosetto this aspect is also “only part of the problem”. Sure, there were mistakes on the field. Of course, “the Ukrainian counteroffensive – to use the Defense Minister’s words – encountered great difficulties, as many of us had suspected.” And certainly “this does not mean that our support for Ukraine will weaken,” according to the decisions of the last Supreme Defense Council. But as the West waits for a “just and lasting” peace for Kiev in the future, it needs to untie a knot that goes beyond the Russian-Ukrainian conflict: strategic decisions in this sector. It is not just a question of money, although in Italy – despite the international situation and the expansion of activities – the defense budget has remained unchanged.
The “Hulk” problem was discussed at the last NATO summit. “And we could imagine investing any amount,” said Crosetto in his speech: “But then there is a bottleneck.” What are the long-term goals of the pact? Let me give you an example: NATO countries produce a million engineers every year. In China alone, four million people graduated during the same period. Well, if we don’t focus on these issues, we will probably lose the challenge.”
Also because the “seven dwarves” have no problems with the consensus or rules of the population. Watching his Swedish counterpart at the Atlantic Pact summit, the Italian minister said: “We had to wait a year and a half before letting Sweden join.” It took Putin an hour to invade Ukraine. And everyone thought about Xi Jinping and Taiwan. End of the “fairy tale”.