Nine stops in one week. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Istanbul this Friday on the first leg of his new marathon tour of the Middle East. It's the fourth in three months and the most complicated yet. In addition to the goals of previous visits – to pressure Israel to moderate its tactics in Gaza and to outline Gaza's future after the war – this visit is particularly aimed at preventing the growing tensions in the region from escalating to a great extent major conflict escalating and having unforeseeable consequences, just as the US election campaign begins.
Preventing the crisis from spreading beyond Gaza has been the United States' major goal since the beginning of the conflict following the Hamas attacks on October 7 and the launch of the Israeli offensive in Gaza in response. For weeks, Washington increased its military presence in the region and the risk appeared relatively limited. But now the attacks by the Yemeni Houthi militias in the Red Sea, the drone attack on Hamas number two, Saleh al Aruri, in Beirut and the harassment of US positions in Iraq and Syria are sparks that threaten to trigger an uncontrollable fire in Syria the region, which would inevitably drag Washington into the election campaign. The prospects are catastrophic for Joe Biden, especially when it comes to his re-election in the elections next November. The president, who began his first term by announcing the withdrawal from Afghanistan, is ending it with open conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East.
“The risk is real and the concerns are great. It was always real and the concern was always high. “That is why the pace of this administration’s activities to reduce the risk of escalating conflict since the beginning of the crisis has been great,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said in announcing Blinken’s trip.
Washington's anger at Israel
The escalation of tensions also comes at a delicate time in relations between Washington and Israel. The United States reiterates its support for its ally, both in statements and in the supply of weapons: just a week ago, the Biden administration once again bypassed Congress for $147.5 million (135 million euros) in ammunition and equipment to approve for your partner. But his irritation with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government is becoming increasingly clear. This week, the State Department condemned in particularly angry language the statements of two Israeli ministers, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, who called for Gaza to be cleared of its Palestinian residents.
Concerned by the turn of events, the White House has launched a full-scale diplomatic offensive. Blinken's trip was preceded by a visit to Israel this week by presidential adviser Amos Hochstein, while Middle East envoy Brett McGurk met with Lebanon's foreign minister in Washington on Wednesday.
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“I am returning to the region to conduct additional diplomacy on the situation in Gaza. “I will continue to push to protect the lives of civilians and work intensively with our partners to ensure the release of the hostages and the sustained delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza,” Blinken wrote on X, the old Twitter for Turkey, immediately before the trip.
I am returning to the region to conduct additional diplomacy on the situation in Gaza. I will continue to push for the protection of civilian life and work intensively with partners to secure the release of hostages and ensure a sustained delivery of humanitarian assistance in Gaza. https://t.co/zylFYbs5uw
—Secretary Antony Blinken (@SecBlinken) January 4, 2024
According to the State Department, its mission goes beyond that. “It will address urgent mechanisms to stop violence, calm rhetoric and reduce regional tensions, including deterring Houthi attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea and preventing escalation in Lebanon,” he noted at the Announcement of the trip.
In addition to Turkey and the Greek island of Crete, the head of American diplomacy will also visit the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Israel, the West Bank and Egypt. “We don’t expect every conversation on this tour to be easy. “Clearly the region faces complicated issues and difficult decisions as we move forward,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller admitted.
In Israel, Blinken plans to “highlight the need to do more to ease tensions in the West Bank,” calls for “immediate action to significantly increase humanitarian assistance to Gaza,” and addresses the administration’s plans for “transitioning to the next Phase”. of the operation,” said the spokesman.
It will be some of the sharpest conversations of the tour. Israel rejects the two-state solution advocated by the United States and proposes a Palestinian civil administration in Gaza while maintaining military control of the area. He assured that he would continue his offensive and demanded that Washington force Hezbollah to end its rocket fire from southern Lebanon into northern Israel and to withdraw north of the Litani River. This week he warned Hochstein that time for such mediation was running out and threatened to deal a major blow to the Iran-backed Shiite militia.
Time for democracy
Washington recognizes that there is still time for diplomacy. “From what we see, there is no clear desire by Hezbollah to go to war with Israel and vice versa,” a senior government official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, remarked this week.
But at the same time the USA is tightening its military stance. Although it has withdrawn one of the two aircraft carriers it had sent to the area at the start of the conflict, the Gerald Ford, it maintains the Eisenhower and a group of combat ships, as well as the additional aircraft and soldiers with which it was reinforced.
This Thursday he killed the leader of a Shiite militia in Baghdad with a drone, triggering the anger of the Iraqi government. Prime Minister Mohamed Shia al Sudan has announced the creation of a committee to plan the withdrawal of international coalition troops from the country.
In the Red Sea, the United States is leading a coalition of more than a dozen countries to protect merchant ships from Houthi attacks, more than 25 since the crisis began. Earlier this week, the coalition issued a strong warning against new attacks and promised that these militias, also backed by Iran, would “bear the consequences” if clashes broke out again. “Do not expect a second warning,” emphasized the senior American official mentioned above in this context.
But on Thursday, these militias sent an unmanned ship loaded with explosives into the Red Sea for the first time since the crisis began. According to the Pentagon, it did not hit any ships but contributed to a further rise in temperatures in the region. Washington's great fear is that one of these attempts could result in the sinking of a merchant ship, which would represent a serious escalation.
The White House asserts that it will act decisively to protect the interests of the United States and its citizens, but also that it does not want to help create a situation in which it could be drawn into a larger role in the Middle East .
“We will act very forcefully against any threat to our people or our interests. “We will also do it in a very intelligent way that may not drag us into the depths of a situation that is in favor of these Iran-backed groups,” the senior official stressed.
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