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When Hamas attacked Israel almost exactly three months ago, Israel was unprepared.
They didn't see the attack coming, first struggled to contain it, and then launched a full-scale invasion of Gaza with only the outlines of one plan: the destruction of Hamas.
Beyond that, there was a yawning vacuum. But that is starting to change.
As laid out to reporters on Thursday, Defense Secretary Yoav Gallant's plan for “the day after” amounts to little more than a series of bullet points, but it's worth examining.
On the subject of security, he doesn't actually say anything that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hasn't already said: Israel will “retain its operational freedom of action throughout the Gaza Strip” and ensure that no one poses a threat to Israel.
When the plan touches on what he calls “the four corners of the civic square,” things get a little blurry.
Israel's strict control over the entry of goods into the Gaza Strip – a fact that has been practiced for the past two decades – would continue.
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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not publicly commented on the plan
Israel, Egypt and the United States would work together to secure the porous border between Egypt and Gaza – something that would include the final resolution of the tunnel problem.
However, the plan envisions a major role for foreign actors – the US, as well as European and Arab governments – in the creation of a “multinational task force” responsible for what is euphemistically referred to as the “rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip.”
In other words, these countries are expected to reassemble the entire destroyed area. And pay for it.
For countries, particularly the EU and the Gulf states, whose previous investments – hospitals, schools and universities – have been ripped apart in the last three months, this is not an enticing prospect.
Even if Israel achieves its goal of eliminating Hamas as a threat, who is to say there won't be future outbreaks of violence that trigger another round of costly destruction?
The indefatigable US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is on his latest visit to the region – his fourth since October 7th. As he travels from one Arab capital to another, how much enthusiasm is he likely to generate from leaders appalled by the scenes of suffering in Gaza?
Until now, the Arab view has been that it is impossible to talk about “the day after” unless there is a ceasefire and the devastating humanitarian consequences of the war are not adequately addressed.
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The plan calls for Israel, Egypt and the United States to work to secure the porous border between Egypt and Gaza
But Dr. Sanam Vakil and Dr. Writing for the British think tank Chatham House, Neil Quilliam urges Arab governments not to wait.
“Without serious regional planning and investment in Gaza,” they write, “lawlessness and a Palestinian political vacuum could result, alongside the grim reality of famine, disease and death.”
And what about this “Palestinian political vacuum”?
In Mr. Gallant's “Four Corners” plan, the Palestinian component is perhaps the vaguest.
“The entity controlling the territory,” it says, “will build on the capabilities of the existing administrative mechanism (Civil Committee) in Gaza – local, non-hostile actors.”
According to media reports, all appointments to local committees must be approved by Israel.
Obviously Hamas plays no role, but neither does – at least for now – the Palestinian Authority, based in the West Bank, and its President Mahmoud Abbas.
For Palestinians, the plan is reminiscent of a fleeting Israeli attempt in the late 1970s to promote apolitical “village leagues” to manage local affairs in the occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip (and thus reduce the influence of the Palestine Liberation Organization). ).
“Israel cannot imagine that Palestinians have freedom of political choice,” says Amjad Iraqi, senior editor of the independent Israeli magazine +972.
“They are basically trying to replicate in Gaza the model they have in the West Bank, but with someone who is not an organized political faction.”
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According to the plan, a “multinational task force” would be responsible for rebuilding Gaza
The use of local committees composed of personalities from the Gaza Strip would also have the effect of politically separating the Gaza Strip from the West Bank.
Palestinians have long been suspicious of what they see as a deliberate Israeli policy of divide and rule, aimed in part at preventing the establishment of a viable Palestinian state.
The West Bank and Gaza Strip may have been physically separated since the founding of the State of Israel in 1948, but Palestinians view both areas as integral parts of their national identity and will fiercely resist any attempt to sever this connection.
“Gaza is not an independent country,” says Palestinian analyst and former PA spokesman Nour Odeh. “They share the same aspirations for statehood and freedom from Israeli control and occupation.”
U.S. officials, who say they are still studying the Gallant plan (and point out that it is not yet an official Israeli proposal), do not seem very enthusiastic.
For weeks, the Biden administration has insisted that the Palestinian Authority should play a role, defying opposition from Mr. Netanyahu, who argues that the Palestinian Authority has disqualified itself by failing to condemn the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks have.
A senior State Department official who traveled with Mr. Blinken said the U.S. still wants the Palestinian Authority to rule over the Palestinian territories — the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
He also said it would be difficult for the US to persuade Arab partners to agree to work with Israel, while some members of Mr Netanyahu's government have openly called for the resettlement of Palestinians outside the Gaza Strip.
This remains the greatest Palestinian fear, stoked by heated rhetoric from some of Mr. Netanyahu's political allies and political documents from unknown parts of the government.
In recent days, these fears have been fueled by reports that the government has been conducting secret negotiations with African countries to accept migrants from Gaza.
With much of Gaza's civilian population now crammed into the southern part of the Gaza Strip, and some of them having moved several times since October 7, there are fears that they may be forced to seek refuge outside Gaza, with no certainty of being able to return – is deeply disturbing.
But it's not just the Palestinians who are skeptical of Mr. Gallant's plan.
The most vocal opposition is already coming from hardliners in Netanyahu's own fractious coalition.
Some of them believe that Israel's withdrawal from Gaza in 2005 was a fundamental mistake. The only way to ensure security, they argue, is for Israel to reoccupy the entire area and allow Jewish settlers to return.
On this score, Mr. Gallant seems pretty blunt.
“There will be no Israeli civilian presence in the Gaza Strip.”
But for the hardliners, rebuilding Gaza and allowing Palestinians to stay is just a pile of trouble.
“We will go back to October 7th, maybe in two years, five years, 10 years,” said Ohad Tal, a lawmaker from the hardline Religious Zionist Party.
“Allowing money from all over the world to flow into Gaza to rebuild the houses essentially means that they will take all the money and, like before, not turn Gaza into a Singapore, but turn it into the largest terror nest in the world.”
The widely reported dispute at Thursday night's Cabinet meeting over the separate but related issue of when and how the Israeli military should investigate the circumstances of the Oct. 7 attacks was clear evidence of the sharp divisions within Mr. Netanyahu's government.
These divisions are likely to deepen as Israel – and the world – wrestles with what to do with Gaza when this war finally ends.