Most of my conversations around the NFL this past week centered around the coaching and general manager firings that are expected to end early Monday. We'll come back to that in a moment.
In the last decade of being on the air as a television reporter with this information, I never had the opportunity to express to viewers that digging up information about whether someone would be fired was insensitive and sad for many reasons can be for these families.
Most trainers will tell you that it is a performance-based business that they willingly signed up for. They know that if you don't win in this league you can't compete. However, losing your job still stinks.
Now it's my job to figure out what I'm hearing and share it with you, so let's get started.
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NFL's Black Monday stories: “It's an absolute nightmare for the coaches and families”
The conversation around the league has really changed in the last month. Around Thanksgiving, it appeared there might be a record number of layoffs, but better performance saved some jobs, and in one case, organizational fear of doing something wrong again saved a coach and his staff.
I still expect there to be several layoffs on Monday and maybe one or two more during the playoffs.
It's all about New England…
Robert Kraft has a big decision to make about Bill Belichick's future. The 71-year-old Belichick wants to keep working out, he can still work out and the players in New England still play hard. After a season filled with talk of the end of the Belichick era and reports of the Kraft family's openness to change, here's what I know from conversations with multiple league sources:
• A meeting between owner Robert Kraft, Jonathan Kraft and Belichick is scheduled for next week.
• There are some who work for the team who expect change and have started to look for jobs elsewhere.
• There are other organizations, like the Commanders and Raiders, hoping for an opportunity to meet Belichick. There are more teams in the shadows, but that depends on the results of Week 18 games and playoff results.
• There has been talk for months that Houston Texans general manager Nick Caserio, a former longtime member of New England's personal brain trust, would like an opportunity to return to the Patriots as general manager if the Patriots parted ways with Belichick. But based on my conversations with league sources, Houston is where the 48-year-old wants to be.
Why would Caserio want to leave the Texans after leading the way in putting together a star-studded rookie class led by quarterback CJ Stroud? He also hired DeMeco Ryans in 2023 and the relationship flourished. Caserio is on his way to building something special, and he wants to stick around to go for his seventh Super Bowl ring, this time with the Texans.
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Why the Patriots' Bill Belichick-Robert Kraft partnership is on the verge of collapse
Ron Rivera has worn many hats in his four years as head coach in Washington. At various times, he appeared to play the role of owner, general manager, public relations officer and head coach. After holding all of these roles, he may not have any left on Monday. League sources have told me that Rivera and his staff are well aware that his time in Washington is coming to an end.
Although this season started promisingly, new owner Josh Harris began discussions a few weeks ago in search of a new head coach and general manager, according to a league source. The Commanders are keeping an eye on what's happening in New England and hope to hire a general manager first before hiring their next head coach.
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Commanders head coaching search: Which potential candidates fit Josh Harris' vision?
The Chargers are casting a wide net, and that means they have to explore all options. A league source told me they prefer to hire someone with head coaching experience and hope to avoid a first-time head coach. Does this mean potential head coaches like Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson or Miami Dolphins offensive coordinator Frank Smith are out of the running? No, not if the ownership can be convinced.
University of Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh, who recently hired NFL agent Don Yee (who represents both Tom Brady and Sean Payton), is a leading candidate for Los Angeles. We'll see how aggressive the Spanos family will be and whether they'll be the first team to get Harbaugh on the phone after Monday's College Football Playoff championship game.
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Chargers mailbag: How attractive is the head coaching position? Who are the building blocks?
Even if owner Mark Davis wanted to sign Antonio Pierce, he can't officially name him head coach right after the Raiders' final game on Sunday. To comply with the NFL's Rooney Rule, personal responsibility is required to interview at least two external minority candidates. Player support for Pierce has been strong in recent weeks and it's clear he has the trust of the locker room. Does that help? Sometimes. Does that get you the job? Not always.
Davis has always made it clear that a Las Vegas team needs a star coach. Harbaugh is at the top of his list, as is Belichick if he leaves New England. If you recall, Davis wanted to hire Harbaugh in 2015 before the coach took the job at Michigan.
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Does the NFL want “quirky” Jim Harbaugh? “He’s won everywhere he’s been, but what does that entail?”
Falcons owner Arthur Blank and head coach Arthur Smith have always had a healthy, communicative relationship. They've had three years together and on Sunday they have a chance to get into the playoffs with a win against the New Orleans Saints and some help from the Carolina Panthers. Smith has a six-year deal with the Falcons and has helped rebuild the roster, but they are still missing the most important piece – quarterback.
This season, Blank was unhappy with losses and inconsistent play at the QB position. He's been publicly non-committal about his head coach's future, and after an offseason that featured a revamped defense and plenty of heavily recruited offensive players, he has reason to be frustrated.
Internally there is a feeling that the workforce will get another chance, but the 81-year-old Blank is not getting any younger. He wants to win now. He's had conversations with people around the league that make me think he's tempted to make the move. Look for Blank to also make a big swing for Belichick when he gets past Smith. This is no longer a remodel in Atlanta.
According to a league source, owner David Tepper will try again for Ben Johnson. The play-caller is open to the job and will also meet with other teams that are expected to show interest, the source said. There's a feeling around the league that while general manager Scott Fitterer could help with some of the transition, he's still not secure in his job. Carolina could start over.
The Saints staff has acted in recent weeks as if Dennis Allen would remain as head coach. Allen appears to be safe, but in speaking with league sources, I expect there will be changes to some personnel.
Team CEO/President Kevin Warren has been watching, taking notes and evaluating his head coach and his team all season long. Although the owners have the final say on the future of Matt Eberflus and his staff, Warren will have a strong hand in the decision. Warren recently shared that he appreciated the energy of the team around Halas Hall, but did not express support for his head coach.
So what can we expect from Warren? He didn't make any spontaneous decisions this season and gave the team the entire regular season to show that they were the right team. He is described as methodical. Emotionless. A planner. His decisions are all made with a long-term approach. While Sunday's game against the Green Bay Packers feels great for the team and quarterback Justin Fields, I don't think one play will be the deciding factor.
Before I let you go…
Dallas Cowboys players were told this week that they can't make the same mistake the Patriots made in their 2019 regular-season finale against a division opponent. Here is the situation:
The Cowboys can clinch the NFC East and secure the NFC's No. 2 seed with a win on Sunday against the 14-point underdog Commanders in Washington. While Dallas fans shouldn't be worried about a Sam Howell-led Washington team, they can't overlook the Commanders. This is where the Patriots come into play.
In 2019, the Patriots were 14-point favorites over the Dolphins at home, trying to win the AFC East against a Miami team that didn't have much to offer. But New England lost and hosted a wild card game the next week against the Tennessee Titans. This game was also lost and Tom Brady never played for the Patriots again. According to a league source, the message to the Cowboys this week was: “We can’t waste the No. 2 pick.”
If that happens? I would add Mike McCarthy to my list of coaches in trouble.
Although I'm breaking Larry David's very strict rule that you can't say “Happy New Year” after January 3rd: “Happy New Year!” I wish you a great 2024 full of health, love and passion for life.
(Photo of Ron Rivera and Bill Belichick: Matthew J. Lee / The Boston Globe via Getty Images)