Although there is a lot of talk about heat-related deaths in Spain, statistics show that the mortality rate is now higher in the winter months than in the summer months. Can global warming reduce deaths during cold spells or have other benefits for agriculture or tourism? The data on the negative effects of rising temperatures is overwhelming, but the problem is often viewed very differently in winter than in summer. An undeniable advantage for citizens of a milder climate on cold days is, for example, lower heating costs, but these positive effects usually also have the other side of the coin, such as increased electricity consumption in cold times. Heat from air conditioning systems.
As for the number of deaths, according to Julio Díaz, researcher at the Carlos III Health Institute, “the number of deaths caused by cold is always higher than those caused by heat, at least that has been the case so far.” Like this physicist and health expert and Climate, in 2019 (the most recent year not affected by Covid deaths) there were an average of 38,000 deaths per month in Spain in November, December, January, February and March, while in June, July, August and September the average number of deaths did not reach 32,000. These are all non-accidental deaths that may or may not be related to the temperatures. One way or another, mortality in the cold months exceeds mortality in the hot months.
Now, as Díaz indicates, there is a maximum temperature (in Madrid it is around 36 degrees) at which deaths due to heat skyrocket, and another minimum temperature (1.9 in the same city) at which it occurs . The same applies to the cold. With this measurement the result changes completely. During 2000-2009, there were an average of 1,400 deaths per year in the country due to heat waves, compared to about 1,000 deaths due to cold waves.
The researcher at the Carlos III Health Institute explains that in times of extreme heat, deaths occur in a very short time and only between 2 and 3% of them are due to heat stroke. The vast majority of deaths are due to the exacerbation of other pathologies such as circulatory diseases, strokes or even neurodegenerative diseases. “We see in Madrid that three days after a heat peak, deaths from Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s and dementia increase,” says Díaz. In the case of a cold, death can occur between 7 and 20 days later after a very pronounced low point in temperature. Although there are also deaths due to an exacerbation of pathologies, here certain diseases such as influenza, pneumonia or bronchiolitis have a major impact.
Can rising temperatures in the cold months prevent deaths enough to offset heat wave deaths? Although the situation may vary from place to place, this is not what Díaz found in his research inside and outside the country. In the case of Spain, the physicist highlights that maximum temperatures in the summer months increase at a rate of 0.4 degrees per decade, while minimum temperatures in the winter months increase at a rate of 0.2 degrees. “There will be more and more heat waves, but cold waves are not decreasing at the same rate,” concludes the researcher, who also considers it important to pay more attention to the impact of pollution on mortality during heat waves that are spreading due to the increase in temperature due to Diseases transmitted by mosquitoes or ticks. In his opinion, it is important to continue working on prevention against both heat and cold.
Frost and agriculture
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When the thermometers break 40 degrees in summer and forest fires break out, most people realize the catastrophe that global warming represents. However, this is less obvious when temperatures above normal are recorded during the cold months. In fact, we often still talk about bad weather when it rains or the thermometer drops. Sara Sánchez researches the impacts of climate change on agricultural systems at the National Institute of Agricultural and Food Research and Technology (INIA/CSIC) in Alcalá de Henares (Madrid). To do this, he manipulates the climatic conditions of crops using heating chambers – a type of greenhouse – and rain shelters, explaining: “A rise in temperatures may have some positive effects on agriculture, but it is doubtful whether these outweigh the negative ones.” Above all when there are all the problems caused by droughts, floods or other extreme events exacerbated by global warming.
Even if the problem is limited to the increase in temperature, the ecologist points out that a warmer climate causes crops to grow faster and flower earlier in cereals. However, this does not lead to a larger harvest, but on the contrary. In addition, soils cause higher greenhouse gas emissions, changes in biodiversity and an imbalance in nutrient cycling. These changes can also have significant impacts on the natural environment. As the researcher notes, “earlier flowering can also impact pollinators.”
As for the cold specifically, Sánchez explains: “Although frosts are negative if they come at the wrong time, there are plants and seeds that need these processes to be able to germinate.” According to the ecologist, “a harsh winter is also like a Environmental filters” to reduce populations of bacteria, fungi or insects that can behave as pathogens. “If these populations do not decline over the winter, there will be many more pathogens at the start of the growing season. “This is what happened to large coniferous forests in northern Canada and the United States, where there was a huge amount of tree die-off,” he points out.
Deseasonalization of tourism
One of the sectors where unusually high temperatures in the cold months are often perceived as good news is tourism. Santiago Vallejo, president of the Spanish Association of Tourism Professionals (AEPT), believes that a milder climate in winter can be an advantage in certain areas, which may lead to changes in habits or even a “deseasonalization” of tourist trips in the summer months they are less concentrated. The other side of the coin is snow tourism in the cold months. As Vallejo points out: “We have a winter with little snowfall and the ski areas open with a few kilometers of slopes.”
There are many uncertainties about the impact of global warming on tourism. A recent article in the Financial Times looks at changes in European tourist bookings to destinations further north following the heatwaves and fires that have hit the Mediterranean in recent summers. “Tourism is not mathematics,” says the president of AEPT, who believes that the rise in temperature will not have such a big impact on the sun and beach tourism model traditionally offered by Spain. Still, Vallejo recognizes that “climate change is a reality that lies ahead” and is particularly concerned about other climate impacts such as drought. “The fact that the swamps of Andalusia or Catalonia are so low also has a major impact on the tourist offer,” he emphasizes.
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