For the 2024 US elections, Donald Trump can count on 28 states (and one district of Maine) to be firmly on his side or leaning towards him, giving a total of 272 electoral votes, two above the magic victory threshold (270). Joe Biden, on the other hand, has 19 states on his side in addition to the District of Columbia (the capital), which corresponds to a total of 225 votes, 45 fewer than the winning quorum. This is the analysis from CNN, which created an initial “Road to 270” election map based on public and private polls, conversations with election consultants, Republican and Democratic political activists, members of Congress and political scientists. The station considers three states to be uncertain (Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and a Nebraska congressional district) for a total of 41 electoral votes. If Biden wins it, he would still have to take back at least one of the three states won in 2020 (Georgia, Michigan and Nevada) that are currently leaning slightly toward Trump. “There will be an endless fixation on national polls in the coming months, but it will be each state's battle for 270 electoral votes that will decide who will sit in the Oval Office next year,” the network explains, reminding In In the last two presidential elections, the loser and winner in three battleground states were separated by a total of less than 80,000 votes out of more than 130 to 155 million votes cast nationwide.
However, CNN warns that its map is an “exercise designed to capture the current state of race.” If we have learned anything from America's recent political history, it is that we should expect the unexpected. We don’t even know for sure whether Biden and Trump will be the party’s two main candidates in the fall.”
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