The Israeli prime minister, who holds the record for longevity at the helm of the Jewish state, has faced record-breaking unpopularity since the start of the war against Hamas.
In the face of corruption allegations, criticism and scandals that have marked his 27-year political life, Benjamin Netanyahu has managed to stay in power against all odds and emerge unscathed from seemingly desperate situations. “He got up every time we thought he was done, […] “It has the reputation of a phoenix reborn from its ashes,” notes Denis Charbit, professor of political science at the Free University of Israel and author of “Israel and its paradoxes: preconceived notions about a country that arouses passions” (ed. Le Blue Rider, 2015).
However, the October 7 Hamas attack, which killed 1,200 people, destroyed the myth of “Bibi the Magician,” as Israeli chroniclers called him. “Israeli citizens, whether they are Likud voters.” [le parti du Premier ministre] or not, have internalized the fact that Netanyahu is over,” explains Denis Charbit.
Embattled by public opinion and weakened by the war, which enters its fourth month on Sunday, January 7, the prime minister's days appear numbered. Franceinfo explains why.
Because his speech about security and the economy is no longer popular
“I want to be remembered as the protector of Israel,” Benyamin Netanyahu stressed to the international business elite gathered in Davos, Switzerland, in January 2016. Since entering politics in the late 1980s, he has made security one of his favorite topics. During the last campaign for the November 2022 general elections, “Mister Security” traveled across the country in an armored vehicle equipped with bulletproof glass to advance the fight against domestic insecurity.
But now this speech, “which focused on security and economic success and enabled him to hold numerous elections in the past, no longer has the same resonance in Israeli society,” comments the political science professor. Benjamin Netanyahu has faced controversy since the October 7 Hamas offensive. The head of government is criticized for his failure to prevent the Hamas attack and is blamed by public opinion for the security failures. At the end of November, the New York Times asserted that the Israeli authorities had been aware of Hamas' attack plan for several months. In addition to the failure of the intelligence services, there is also the military failure: the huge barrier around the Gaza Strip, equipped with hundreds of state-of-the-art cameras and radar devices, was easily crossed by Hamas men. The “Iron Wall”, which was built between 2018 and 2021 and forms the heart of the Jewish state’s defense system, was suspected Protect the residents of the south of the country.
As a warlord, Benjamin Netanyahu has also failed to restore his image. Despite his visits to the front and to Gaza, to the troops involved in the counteroffensive, the leader's popularity continues to dwindle. “The magic no longer works, it is broken (…), analyzes Denis Charbit. The affection and compassion of Israelis goes first to the ordinary soldiers, the soldier who is present in Gaza and risks everything to lose a person's life.
And when the army achieves its goals in the war against Hamas, such as killing the organization's No. 2 leader in Lebanon on Wednesday, “it does not reap the benefits of those actions,” points out Nimrod Goren, Hamas affairs researcher Middle East Institute and President of Mitvim, the Israeli regional foreign policy institute. These successes are primarily attributed to the military and the state apparatus.”
Because his rival Benny Gantz steals the show
The Israeli leader was forced to form a government of national unity and a war cabinet with his rival Benny Gantz during the conflict. Since then, the man who was his defense minister between May 2020 and December 2022 has grown in popularity. According to an opinion poll published on Tuesday by the independent research center Israel Democracy Institute, only 15% of Israelis want Benjamin Netanyahu to continue his mandate after the end of the war. He is in second place, eight points behind Benny Gantz, who is favored by almost a quarter of respondents and is now the favorite in the polls in the event of early elections.
For Denis Charbit, the popularity of the leader of the National Unity Party among Israelis is explained by his calmness: “He embodies a sobriety that is the exact opposite of Netanyahu. He speaks little, does not make big speeches and assumes the responsibility of the incumbent on him.” Whatever indicator is chosen to measure the popularity of Benjamin Netanyahu and his coalition, “they are inexorably losing ground,” says Nimrod Goren “What Israelis want today is for the country to be governed by leaders with different political profiles, who are responsible and concerned about the unity of the country.”
But despite polls unfavorable to the Israeli prime minister, it is difficult at this point to predict when a reshuffle of the political scene will take place. “Netanyahu may be politically devastated, but not his coalition,” explains Denis Charbit. With 64 seats, it has a stable majority in the Knesset (the Israeli parliament). “A member of the current coalition would have to leave the government for there to be a big change,” emphasizes Nimrod Goren. Early elections are scheduled to take place later this year, but the political scenario is not yet clear.”
For his part, the 74-year-old main interest refuses to comment on his political future and reacts annoyed when asked about the subject. “I am shocked. I'm just stunned. Our soldiers are fighting in Gaza. Our soldiers die in battle. The hostages' families are living in a giant nightmare, and this is what you have to do? There will be a time for politics,” he replied to the press, according to comments from the AP news agency.
Because a political and legal tsunami awaits him
Benjamin Netanyahu is also once again in legal trouble in the middle of the war. The corruption trial against the prime minister, which has been suspended for two months, resumed in Jerusalem on December 4th. The head of government has to answer for three cases of corruption, fraud and breach of trust, allegations which he rejects. He is suspected of having received bribes totaling around 700,000 shekels (or just over 173,000 euros) from celebrities in return for government favors. According to the Israeli press, this situation is unprecedented for a prime minister who will be appointed to power in a few months.
Furthermore, at the end of the war against Hamas, the establishment of a commission of inquiry into the shortcomings of the army, the government, the intelligence service and Benjamin Netanyahu himself before the October 7 attack seems inevitable. Some Likud members are already calling for it. “It will be very hard and will not spare anyone. This commission will have the difficult task of prosecuting the blindness of its leaders,” explains Denis Charbit. “But before that, we have to make sure that it is set up properly,” warns Nimrod Goren, that it is independent of the political system, that it does not serve anyone’s political interests and that it investigates at all levels of the state.” There are historical precedents. In 1974, the commission led by Shimon Agranat was tasked with investigating the failures of the Israeli army and the Israeli executive and pushed for the resignation of then Labor Prime Minister Golda Meir.