The war in Gaza has reached a dangerous peak in regional expansion that threatens to spread hostilities across the Middle East. Three months have passed since a conflict that resulted in the deaths of more than 22,000 Palestinians and 1,200 Israelis, as well as the destruction of the coastal enclave and the uprooting of 90% of its 2.3 million residents. Now the war's increasing escalation is raising fears of an outbreak in southern Lebanon after the killing of Saleh al-Aruri, Hamas' second largest member, on Tuesday and the closure of Yemen's strategic Red Sea shipping route due to harassment by Houthis from merchant ships.
The army or militia that miscalculates raids or responds with reprisals will be held responsible for a possible new conflict. That's why the sides in the fight, old arch enemies, try to do it with each other.
After four days of relative containment, Hezbollah, considered the most powerful paramilitary organization in the Middle East, fired more than 60 rockets from southern Lebanon early Saturday morning at an Israeli military intelligence observation post in Meron and against it from other border areas in Metula and Margaliot, in one the most violent attacks since the start of the war in Gaza, following the Hamas attacks on October 7th.
The pro-Iran militia party defined the barrage as a “preliminary response” to the death of Hamas' number two in Beirut in a drone strike. Hezbollah has accused Israel of what appears to be a selective killing carried out in one of the Lebanese capital's Shiite strongholds, but Benjamin Netanyahu's government has not claimed responsibility for the action, which bears the seal of Israeli intelligence. Hezbollah's leader, Shiite cleric Hasan Nasrallah, warned on Friday that his organization would not leave the attack on Al Aruri “unanswered.” He claims to have ordered 670 operations against Israel since October 7th.
The army initially responded with artillery and drone attacks on Shiite militia positions in southern Lebanon, where the rocket launch pads were located. A common reaction, despite the magnitude of the wave of missiles fired. However, a few hours later, according to a report, Israeli forces launched ground and air strikes against various Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon in Ayta Shab, Yarun and Ramyeh. military declaration.
Israel is on “very high alert” on the border with Lebanon, its chief spokesman, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, admitted on Friday, citing the precedent of open war between the two sides in 2006. At that time, 1,300 Lebanese were killed. , mostly civilians, and 165 Israelis, almost all military, in 33 days of fighting. Subsequently, 10,800 UN peacekeepers from 40 countries were stationed at the border, including 600 Spaniards.
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The Secretary of State of the United States, Antony Blinken, and the EU High Representative for Foreign Policy and Security, Josep Borrell, met this Saturday on diplomatic trips through the Middle East that have the common goal of preventing an escalation of the Gaza conflict . passes at the regional level. Blinken has stated that Israel “does not want an escalation of the conflict but has the right to defend itself,” referring to attacks by Hezbollah and Hamas. During his visit to Greece as part of his trip to several Middle Eastern countries, he also assured that Turkey was ready to use its relations with “critical actors in the region to de-escalate the conflict.” “We want to ensure that countries in the region use their connections and relationships to ensure that we do not see an escalation,” he told reporters, quoted by Portal.
The head of EU diplomacy said this Saturday in Beirut that “it is essential to avoid that there is a regional escalation in the Middle East and that Lebanon is drawn into a regional conflict,” as Efe said in an appearance before the Press quoted. He also sent a message to Israel: No one will emerge victorious from a regional conflict. “Even in war there are rules and there are international humanitarian norms that must be respected. “One horror does not justify another.” “There must be another way to eradicate Hamas that does not mean so many innocent people dying,” he emphasized together with Lebanese Foreign Minister Abadalah abu Habib.
“Over time, the parties’ low propensity to slide into a regional conflict on the northern front is confirmed,” argues Israeli analyst Daniel Kupervaser. “It is important for them to express their presence on the ground, but they avoid overdoing it,” he emphasizes. He considers the exchange of blows this Saturday to be a good example. “Hezbollah claimed that this was in retaliation for the murder of Al Aruri,” explains Kupervaser, “knowing that their rockets would not cause any significant damage.” Other actors are also operating on the northern front, such as the Palestinian militias exiled in Lebanon, who are close to both Hamas and the secular nationalist party Fatah.
Since hostilities began in Gaza, at least 177 deaths have been recorded on the Lebanese border front: 13 in Israel (nine soldiers and four civilians) and 164 in Lebanon (127 members of Hezbollah, 16 members of Palestinian militias, one Lebanese soldier). and 20 civilians, including three journalists), according to the Efe agency. Israel has deployed more than 200,000 troops on its northern border, where more than 80,000 people have been evacuated due to the hostilities. On the Lebanese side of the border, more than 70,000 civilians have been forced from their homes.
“Netanyahu's decision to evacuate from the beginning of the war the towns closest to the Lebanese border, including Kyriat Shmona (pop. 60,000), which were later occupied by soldiers, has allowed Hezbollah to attack them daily, seeing them as considered a military target,” emphasizes Amos Harel, defense correspondent for the Haaretz newspaper. “The exchange of attacks in the current format (of relative intensity) may take months as the United States continues to mediate to reach a diplomatic solution.” The alternative is military action, especially if the response to Al Aruri's death is a chain of attacks “It triggers misjudgments,” warned the expert in his weekly article on Friday.
Netanyahu rules out stopping fighting
Amid the usual instability plaguing the Middle East, the chaos of famine inexorably looms over hundreds of thousands of civilians huddled in the open air in the southern Gaza Strip. Malnutrition and disease will decimate the child population unless urgent action is taken. There is no ceasefire in sight. Netanyahu assured Saturday evening that he would not end the war until “all objectives are achieved.” “Three months ago, Hamas committed a terrible massacre,” he said in a statement. “The government ordered the army to go to war to eliminate Hamas, free our hostages and ensure that Gaza never again poses a threat to Israel.” The prime minister warned that there would be no immunity for Hamas .
Despite Netanyahu's enthusiasm for the war, the Israeli armed forces have actually entered the so-called Phase 3 of the war, which involves the demobilization of the reserve units fighting in the enclave and an operational strategy aimed at very specific objectives. Late Saturday, spokesman Hagari assured that the Israeli army had completed dismantling the “military framework” in the northern Gaza Strip and was now concentrating its operations in the center and south of the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, people in Gaza continue to die in a war that is expected to last well over 100 days. According to the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip's Health Ministry, at least 122 people died between midday Friday and Saturday. Most of the victims are women and children.
Unless the release of the 136 hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza is achieved, presumably in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners accused of “security crimes,” Israel will not end hostilities or allow a mass return of these hostages displaced to their homes – or what remains of them – in northern Gaza. In the now past three months of war, 175 Israeli soldiers have died in combat, compared to the 8,000 Hamas militants Israel claims to have killed.
Benny Gantz, former defense minister and member of the emergency government formed in Israel for the war, recognized two months ago that his country was waging a “multi-front war” and at the same time fighting against Hamas. “We are fighting in both the north and the south,” warned Gantz, who led the previous major conflict in the Palestinian territory as chief of general staff in 2014.
Attacks against Israel, mostly by Iran-linked militias and armed groups, extend from the borders of Lebanon and Syria to the Red Sea. On that southern front, the head of the Yemeni Houthis' Supreme Revolutionary Committee, Mohamed Ali al Houthi, told the BBC on Friday that any country involved in the United States-led international coalition in the Red Sea “will do so.” Lose the right to maritime security” of its ships, which will be considered “targets”. The major international shipping companies are already avoiding passage through the Red Sea towards the Suez Canal and are forced to take longer routes on the border with Africa.
Funeral of some Houthi militiamen who died after a US attack in the Red Sea last Friday in Sanaa, the capital of Yemen.KHALED ABDULLAH (Portal)
Since last November, Yemeni rebels have been carrying out attacks on ships en route to Israel or owned by Israelis. They also attacked the southern tip of Israeli territory: the port city of Eilat in the Gulf of Aqaba, where the Jewish state has access to the Red Sea. The launch of suicide drones as well as cruise and ballistic missiles from Yemen has doubled the threat posed by pro-Iranian forces against Israeli territory, which has resorted to the new Arrow defense system to protect it. It is the most advanced missile defense shield available.
“We are facing a new kind of multi-front war,” said former General Yossi Kuperwasser, who was head of the armed forces’ intelligence research department, recently. For this analyst, Iran's allies are putting pressure on “a simultaneous operation by Shiite forces,” for which Tehran is generously providing weapons and funding.
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