Following my in-depth report on the best electric vehicle models in the world, let's now take a look at the top car brands and OEMs when it comes to electric vehicle sales.
The best-selling brands
In November, BYD continued its record high thanks to an output of 289,000 units. Tesla returned to normal and delivered 174,000 units. That was 14% more than the same period in 2022.
Among the top two Galacticians is the SGMW-JV, which ended the month in 3rd place and was hoping for the new success of its dynamic duo (Wuling Mini EV & Bingo) to finish ahead of the competition.
Both BMW No. 4 and Volkswagen No. 5 achieved their best results of the year with 50,666 and 47,116 units respectively, which could be an indicator of record results in December for the two German brands.
#6 Li Auto continues to thrive with another record month, the eighth in a row. Li Auto saw over 41,000 registrations across the program thanks to record results. With the startup brand's offerings still limited, you can expect the high-end company to continue breaking records on a regular basis for the foreseeable future. Especially when the L6 midsize SUV and L5 sedan arrive sometime next year. Oh, and the icing on Li Auto's cake is a certain bullet train mega MPV… with mega features.
Just below, the Changan No. 8 posted another record month with around 39,000 units, largely thanks to the success of the cute little Lumin and the Deepal S7 SUV. Another record breaker was #7 Geely. Thanks to consistently great results, not least the Panda Mini's record score and also the Galaxy L7's 8,473 units, Geely delivered over 39,000 units!
Zeekr's achievement is still part of Geely's brand galaxy and has not gone unnoticed. The record 13,124 registrations didn't quite allow the company to be in the top 20, but once “Secret Agent 007” lands, it will only be a matter of time.
While the 007's design is something of an acquired taste, just like vodka martinis (shaken, not stirred…), its specs leave no doubt that they have license to kill anything in this model segment – Teslas included. (Okay, I promise to stop with the James Bond analogies now…) The base version has a CLTC range of 688 km (606 km for the base Model 3) and charging can add 500 km in 15 minutes, while the Long Range version 870 km has km CLTC range (713 km for the Model 3 AWD). The basic version starts at 209,000 RMB (260,000 for the base model 3). Expect the new Zeekr model to take a permanent spot in the 2024 edition of the Top 20, with a Top 10 presence not being ruled out.
Volkswagen's premium brand, Audi, achieved its best result of the year with 26,157 registrations. But in the private race of the Three Marys (BMW, Audi and Mercedes), the brand with the four rings is still in last place and far behind leader BMW. BMW achieved an additional 24,000 units in the same period. The reason? While Audi only has three EV models, of which only the Q4 e-tron and Q8 e-tron can be considered volume models, BMW has twice as many volume models on offer (iX1, iX3, i4, iX and not to be forgotten). the Chinese i3). Even if BMW doesn't have a star player like the Audi Q4, the combination of these models is enough to significantly outperform Audi. The upcoming Audi A6 e-tron and Q6 e-tron are urgently needed….
Two big surprises were XPeng with start number 15, which achieved its second record result in a row with 20,124 registrations. The company saw its SUVs, the midsize G6 and full-size G9, shine. Seemingly out of nowhere, AITO jumped to 17th place thanks to a record number of 18,863 registrations, and while 81% of this result was accounted for by the M7 model, the XXL SUV M9 soon launched its career and heralded a profound renewal for the mid-range Expect, that this Huwaei-backed electric vehicle brand M5 will become something big sometime in the first half of 2024. As the current 100,000 orders for the M7 model prove, the Chinese tech company has more than enough power to essentially make AITO a second Li car. Expect this brand to be one of the surprises of 2024….
Another OEM on the rise was Chery, one of the EV pioneers in China. Thanks to the strong performance of its QQ Ice Cream model, the brand achieved its best result in over a year with 15,994 registrations. This gave him a table presence after a long absence from the top 20. Notably, Chery was the twelfth Chinese brand in this top 20.
But some of the more interesting stories in this ranking lie just behind Chery. No. 21 Ford only dropped 51 units in the rankings, but it was still the best-selling heritage brand in the U.S., finishing ahead of No. 2…Buick. Yes, despite all of GM's efforts in the US through Chevrolet and Cadillac, Buick is the only relevant GM brand worldwide thanks to its Chinese operations. This is thanks to the aforementioned Velite 6 compact station wagon (a model that contradicts EVERYTHING GM stands for in the USA), a record result and the good result of the latest Buick Electra E5 (5,915 registrations) in China. The Electra E5 is a model related to the American-made Chevrolet Equinox EV. If General Motors will be significant in a future EV-based automotive market, it will be thanks to its Chinese operations. Just food for thought….
Finally, in addition to the record results of Geely and Zeekr, there is another brand from the Chinese OEM that deserves mention. The unique Lynk & Co brand also achieved a record result with 14,647 registrations, thereby contributing to the current rise of the Geely Group. But more on that later…
In the YTD tableThere's not much to report about the first two places. BYD is well ahead of Tesla, and both are in a galaxy of their own. Together, the two brands are responsible for more than a third of the global plug-in vehicle market.
Far below these two, which are truly in a league of their own, there has been a position change in the leadership of NTNB (not Tesla, not BYD). Thanks to a year-best result in November and also a below-expected result from GAC Aion, BMW returned to third place and is now the favorite for bronze in the 2023 edition of the manufacturers' race. After the bronze medal in 2016, it would be Bayern's second podium finish ever.
But with only 300 units separating BMW from the #4 GAC Aion, anything can still happen and the Chinese brand can still celebrate its first podium finish. It just has to beat the German brand in December….
Back to November: There's not much to talk about in the first half of the table. The main interest is seventh place, where Mercedes could come under pressure in December from a rising Li Auto. The Chinese startup breaks records every month and could therefore overtake the German company in the last days of the year.
The remaining position change also came from Germany, where Audi overtook the two Koreans Hyundai and Kia to take 13th place. This also serves as a kind of warning to Hyundai-Kia. Not only do you have to have good electric vehicles, you also have to produce them on a large scale and at competitive prices, otherwise someone will steal the cake.
While there weren't too many changes in November, the final month of the year should see more fluctuations, especially down below where the #17 NIO is on the verge of overtaking Toyota. The Japanese brand may also be surpassed by Ford No. 18. There are also likely to be changes in the bottom two places in the table, as both Jeep No. 19 and Peugeot No. 20 could be overtaken by an up-and-coming Leap Motor, which is currently No. 21 with 127,245 units, just 15 units behind the French brand lies. Interestingly, Leap Motor recently partnered with Stellantis, the mothership of Jeep and Peugeot. Interesting coincidence, isn't it?
We also cannot exclude #22 XPeng from taking part in the race. Although it is 5,000 units behind Peugeot No. 20, it is on the rise. The startup brand could also spring a surprise at the last minute.
Looking at registrations by OEMLeader BYD remained stable with a 22.1% share, while Tesla fell 0.q% to a 13.3% share.
Third place is in the hands of the Volkswagen Group (7.3%), which is well ahead of the up-and-coming number 4 Geely-Volvo (6.8% versus 6.7%). The Chinese OEM benefited from great performances across several of its brands, ranging from Geely to Lynk & Co and Zeekr.
Even if the end of 2023 is too close for the Chinese conglomerate to put pressure on the No. 3 Volkswagen Group, the 2024 race should see an interesting duel between these two in the race for the NTNB title.
At SAIC No. 5 (5.6%, down from 5.5% in October), the stock decline has stopped and appears to be reversing. This was not the case for Stellantis, which is stable in 6th place, but whose share fell by 0.1% to 4.3%.
Things look more interesting below the multinational corporation. The BMW Group in 7th place (share 4.1%) was able to maintain its position and even beat GAC in 8th place (3.9%, minus 0.1%) and Hyundai-Kia in 9th place (3.8%, from 3.9%) gaining ground.
If we look at the ranking a year ago, we can see that both top brands have gained market share, namely 3.7% in the case of BYD and 0.3% in the case of Tesla. The other beneficiary was Geely-Volvo, which incidentally added 0.7% of its share.
On the losing side, Volkswagen lost 0.7% of its share year-on-year (YoY), while SAIC lost its share by 1.8 points from 7.4% a year ago to 5.6% currently.
Comparing the YTD share in the 2nd month of the current quarter (November) with the second month of the 3rd quarter (August), Geely was the main gainer in the last three months, increasing its share by 0.7% from 6, 1% to 0.7% currently up 6.8%, while Tesla was the biggest loser, losing its share by 1.1% from 14.4% in August to 13.3% now.
I'm just looking at BEVs, Tesla remained at the top with 19.2%, up from 19.3% in October. The US brand still has a comfortable lead over BYD (16.5% vs. 16.3%) as the US automaker found a significant lead in the first half of the year.
Next year, however… it's not so much a question of if, but more of when. I don't expect this to happen in the first quarter as there will be New Year celebrations in the Chinese market which will certainly slow down BYD's sales, but the second quarter should probably mark the turning point where BYD surpasses Tesla in the BEV race. (Editor's note: BYD overtook Tesla in BEV sales in Q4, but only for the quarter. Tesla ended the year at No. 1 for the 12-month period. Jose's comments here are presumably in reference to the lead in a YTD ranking.)
In last place on the podium, the Volkswagen Group (7.8%) lost significant ground to SAIC (7.7% versus 7.6%). Expect an entertaining race between these two in the final leg of the race.
At No. 5, Geely-Volvo consolidated its position, growing from 6.2% to 6.3% currently, while No. 6 GAC lost its share from 5.6% in November to 5.4% currently.
Finally, if you compare the current picture with what happened a year ago, Tesla's rise is clear (+1.1% share), but not as impressive as that of BYD – the Chinese electric giant gained a relevant market share of 3 ,8th %. Geely-Volvo's market share gain (+1.2%) is also impressive, especially since the company started from a much smaller base.
What about 2024?
BYD and Tesla will continue to grow, albeit moderately:
- The Chinese brand is already reaching its natural limits in China, and it is more difficult to increase significant volumes in export markets than in its own domestic market. I think BYD's main goal for 2024 is to grow without compressing margins, hence the recent bets on high-end brands.
- Tesla is limited by an aging/maturing product lineup without much growth prospects. The recently introduced model, the Cybertruck, is still deep in production hell. Even if OEM sales increase by around 100,000 to 200,000 units in 2024, that will represent less than 10% of the company's total sales volume and is therefore hardly enough to make a difference. Significant increases are only likely to occur in 2025, when the compact model is scheduled to come onto the market.
The Volkswagen Group and SAIC will likely remain close, but will likely compete for fourth place rather than third. That's because Geely-Volvo seems unstoppable at the moment. Given the growth prospects of almost every brand they have (Geely's expanding Galaxy sub-brand, Volvo's EX30 and EX90, Zeekrs 007, Lynk & Co's upcoming BEV models and Polestars 3 and 4, to name a few), we can We assume that it will be one of the winners in 2024 and is therefore a comfortable bronze medalist in the BEV ranking.
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