The scenario is new. Even unlikely. It could be straight out of a B-movie on Netflix. Three years after the attack on the Capitol, Donald Trump is moving quickly toward the American presidential election, despite obstacles that do little to slow his progress. He could actually shape the history of the United States… again.
Not only is he one of the few defeated presidents to run for a second term, he could also be one of the few to do so. Only one other president has achieved this feat. It's about Grover Cleveland at the end of the 19th century, says Daniel Béland, professor of political science at McGill University.
That's not all. States including Colorado and Massachusetts are even disputing Donald Trump's eligibility in the Republican primaries. They point to the 14th Amendment, which states that a person who has participated in an insurrection or rebellion against the country cannot represent the American people.
“It has happened before that a judge or magistrate has been disqualified because of this change, but never a former president or even a top candidate. “It's remarkable and unrealistic!” says Jason Opal, a professor in McGill's history department.
The two scientists agree that a triumph for Donald Trump would be historic. “But this victory would be bad news for Canada,” says Mr. Béland.
Canadian and Quebec authorities must prepare for a possible Donald Trump victory. When the Republican billionaire won the election in 2016, the Canadian Immigration Service website was no longer accessible. Too many Americans had inquired about moving across the border.
Emigration to our country is very plausible and a phenomenon that Ottawa and Quebec need to take seriously, says Jason Opal.
“I personally know several Americans who are tired of living in the United States due to political tensions. They told me they wouldn't want to live there if Trump was in power. I’m already being asked about moving to Canada.”
— Jason Opal, professor in the history department at McGill
Daniel Béland, for his part, is not expecting a mass exodus. Despite numerous requests, very few Americans came to Canada after the Republican victory nearly eight years ago. Instead, he expects an increase in asylum seekers, people without American citizenship and people in an irregular situation.
“Having an American president who is anti-immigration could encourage people from abroad to settle in Canada instead of the United States. We could be more attractive to many qualified foreign workers.”
However, immigration is not the only problem that a possible Donald Trump victory poses. Canada depends on the USA for trade. The opposite is not the case.
Since the former president is very protectionist – much more so than the Democrats with their Buy American Act – trade agreements between our countries could be weakened, argues the McGill professor of political science. The renegotiation of NAFTA, now CUSMA, also caused a lot of headaches under the Trump administration, he adds.
Due to its geographical location, Canada is a staunch ally of the United States. They are essential to our national defense. Even on the international stage we are in the shadow of Uncle Sam.
“However, Trump could increase certain geopolitical tensions. It's a Pandora's box. Geopolitically there is great uncertainty. He was never a good player at NATO or NORAD,” says Mr. Béland.
According to the scientist, regardless of whether our government is liberal or conservative, there will be clashes between the governing parties because the former president is unpredictable and not very diplomatic. “Can we really trust Trump?” asks Daniel Béland.
However, that does not mean that relations between our two countries have been impeccable under Joe Biden. However, Jason Opal is of the opinion that everyday life is usually made easier by more transparent administration.
Trump, the prophet
Despite the trials, the storming of the Capitol and his sometimes incoherent statements, Donald Trump is still as popular as ever. How is it possible?
“This is the question of the century,” says Jason Opal.
“As an American, I hate to say this, but it is simply the truth. There is no point in denying that there is a fascist movement in the United States. About 30% of Trump's electorate rejects the constitutional order and supports violence.
–Jason Opal
All of these people, most of whom support the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement to the death, cling to the image of the United States as a nation chosen by God.
“Trump would embody the nation in all its glory. He would be a supreme being. A masculine and violent creature. He is not a politician. He is a prophet who transcends everything,” explains Mr. Opal.
Shortly after the attack on the Capitol, an overwhelming majority of Americans blamed Trump for the insurrection. Today half of the population no longer believes he is guilty.
“The MAGA movement rejects facts in favor of ideology. They are clear that what happened on January 6th was not an act of violence. Which is absolutely wrong. But by repeating the message, the lie quietly becomes reality for certain people,” says the McGill history department professor.
Trump is not just counting on the support of these voters. The other 20% of their electorate are typical conservatives. They usually vote Republican, but are not ardent admirers of the billionaire. They are primarily interested in the country's economy and therefore are willing to forget the Capitol insurrection in order to achieve a growing GDP.
Who will be able to convince the moderates?
As the presidential election approaches, the United States is split in two. There is a political camp in every divide. This gap has only grown larger over the years. Partisan polarization has been going on for several decades. On one side are the Republicans and on the other side are the Democrats.
“There is a bipartisan vision in which members of the other party are enemies. There is no trust in the political system because the rules of the game would be against it. Democracy is in decline and the election of Donald Trump was a symptom of a political crisis that began long before him.”
It is in these troubled waters that the next American election will take place. While anything is still possible, Jason Opal is willing to put his hand on the fire that Trump will be the Republican nominee and Biden will be the Democratic nominee.
However, a majority of American women do not like this choice. Both scientists also believe that these are not two great admirers.
“I don’t think there are any really good candidates. Trump is probably the worst president in American history. If he returns to the presidency, it would be a serious blow to American democracy, which is already spiraling.”
— Daniel Béland, Professor of Political Science at McGill University
However, things won't get any better if Biden returns to power. “He will be 82 years old in January 2025. He could become disabled or even die during his presidency, leaving the White House to the vice president. This raises many questions. Do Americans really want the obviously not very popular Kamala Harris at the helm of the country? he asks.
It is the people who do not wear political colors who decide the outcome of the election. Who will be able to convince the moderates?
“Trump and the Republicans will focus on immigration, immigration and immigration. While Biden and the Democrats are more likely to talk about abortion, women's rights, the threat to Obamacare and democracy,” mentions Jason Opal. These will be the cornerstones of the election campaign.
The outcome of the elections is very difficult to predict. Both experts predict that it will be a close race. However, this American presidential election will lead to even deeper divisions between the reds and the blues. Some states may even erect new barriers between federal and state law to deny existing powers in different ways.
Despite the uncertainties, one thing is certain, even from his own words. If Donald Trump returns to power, he will be thirsty for revenge. His enemies and his allies will not be safe. An arrow or two could even be sent to Justin Trudeau. But it wouldn't be the first time.