After a difficult 2023, marked by a counteroffensive that made little progress and the collapse of Western and especially American support for its cause, Ukraine once again sees very dark clouds gathering on the horizon.
Although announced for the next few weeks, the F-16s that could allow the company to regain some initiative in the air appear to be just a few months away, and the relative robustness of its vital anti-aircraft defenses could be in serious jeopardy is challenged by the announced inability of the United States to continue supplying it with missiles for its Patriot batteries, as the New York Times reports.
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Patriot batteries, very efficient and very expensive
Winter brings catastrophic temperatures and Russia continues to fire its missiles at Ukraine at all costs. His own as well as those of his allies: As the Tribune explained on January 5, it was jointly reported by Washington and Kiev that Moscow had fired North Korean ballistic projectiles at the cities, infrastructure and civilians of its neighbors after British intelligence picked it up from Business Insider, describes it as a humiliating request from Vladimir Putin to Kim Jong-un.
Fortunately, when some of these missiles and drones inevitably hit ground targets and kill many people in the process, Ukraine's allies have been able to gradually strengthen their anti-aircraft defenses in recent months, allowing the country to destroy most of these deadly projectiles before they reach the ground .
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One of the main weapons of this shield is the MIM-104 Patriot system developed by Raytheon. Although it is nothing new, it is Ukraine where its military qualities are most evident. Even the Kinjal missile (or Kinzhal missile), a “miracle weapon” that Vladimir Putin presented as “unbeatable,” is paying the price.
As Business Insider or TF1 reported, ten of these “Daggers” were fired at Ukraine on January 2 and, according to Kiev, all of the missiles were intercepted by Patriot batteries without exception. As The War Zone and especially the Kyiv Post explained, a warhead from the missile in question was even recovered by Ukrainian sappers, a boon for Western intelligence.
In #KievThe pioneers of the Ukrainian state rescue service deactivated an unexploded Russian rocket named #Kinzhal.
📷: SES pic.twitter.com/jeGVRQeFPk
— KyivPost (@KyivPost) January 5, 2024
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The Patriot systems are supplied to Ukraine by the United States, but also and to a lesser extent by Germany and the Netherlands, and are used primarily to protect Kiev, as Politico recently explained – Volodymyr Zelensky would like to receive some others to protect other major cities Kherson or Odessa.
The ammunition problem
Undoubtedly, it is quite far from that, as the New York Times explains. The American Congress is mired in internal political disputes and is struggling to release new funds that are vital and urgent for Ukraine's rearmament. Additionally, the Pentagon has warned that it cannot indefinitely supply Kiev with missiles to power its Patriot batteries; According to figures quoted by the daily, each of them would cost between $2 million and $4 million.
If the pace of its massive missile and drone attacks continues at the same pace, Russia is likely looking to empty those hanging Ukrainian ammunition supplies: According to the New York Times, there have been nearly 7,400 missiles and 3,400 drones over Ukraine since February 2022 started.
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The war has in fact become a major global industrial battle in which the protagonists and their allies now primarily strive to gain the upper hand in military factories and production lines.
According to the Associated Press, other nations could try to take over from the US in supplying Ukraine with Patriot battery missiles: NATO, and in particular Spain, Germany, Romania and the Netherlands, would try to acquire 1000 of them for a sum of 5.5 billion dollars, to help the country replenish its supplies a little and withstand the next Russian attacks. There are still a thousand rockets to be produced.
The “delay” of the F-16
The other possible bad news for Ukraine concerns one of the weapons it has, logically, demanded with utmost urgency since the start of the war: F-16 fighter-bombers, which would allow it to bolster its thin air force and regain strength against Russia.
As we or Forbes reported, these F-16s appeared at the gates of Ukraine a few days ago, with pilots completing their training at various bases in allied countries. A few days later, the catastrophe: As the Danish newspaper Berlingske explained and relayed by Politico or Le Figaro, these first six Danish devices, which seemed so close, will finally arrive only in the second half of 2024.
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“This is mainly a question related to the training of the Ukrainian personnel responsible for operating the aircraft,” the Danish Defense Minister explained in a press release, notably relayed by the Guardian.
As British intelligence Newsweek reported, Russia is struggling to gain real air superiority on Ukrainian territory, especially thanks to Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses. Their planes continue to pose a constant threat, particularly as they fire very deadly “glide bombs” at the troops flying the yellow and blue banner far behind the front lines.
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In particular, the well-armed F-16s could make it possible to somewhat deter this threat and thus loosen the influence of the ground troops – or to return the favor to those in Moscow. If the delayed delivery of aircraft is confirmed, it will be more very bad news for Kiev, which, as the Wall Street Journal explains, is already suffering from severe ammunition shortages, and its military prospects in 2024.
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