Michael Rothstein, ESPN Staff Writer January 9, 2024, 12:33 a.m. ET
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- Michael Rothstein is a reporter for NFL Nation at ESPN. Rothstein covers the Atlanta Falcons. You can follow him on Twitter @MikeRothstein.
ATLANTA — In August, Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank said he would be disappointed if his team wasn't more competitive and showed improvement in 2023. What Blank saw all season was far too much of the same.
So Blank decided to make a change, firing coach Arthur Smith after three seasons late Sunday night after a 48-17 loss to the New Orleans Saints and a playoff spot on the line.
It was a somewhat quick turnaround for the typically patient Blank, who gave Jim Mora Jr. three seasons, Mike Smith seven years and Dan Quinn more than five years. The difference is that these three coaches all made the playoffs in their first or second year as head coaches.
While Arthur Smith's situation was different than that of his three predecessors when he took over due to salary cap restrictions, he also never finished a season with a winning record or never made the postseason. So Atlanta is now looking for a coach.
Why fire Smith?
The one thing the Falcons were during Smith's tenure was inconsistent. Atlanta never won more than two games in a row under Smith, and he had at least a three-game losing streak in his final two seasons.
After the Falcons ended a three-game losing streak with a win over the New Orleans Saints in December, Smith was asked how he kept the energy up. In a way, he summed up his tenure in this process.
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“Consistency, right,” Smith said. “That’s the biggest challenge week after week. In order for us to take the next step, we have to do this. Be consistent and play with the same concentration and energy in the last week.”
And a lot of that comes down to quarterback play. Smith has had four starting quarterbacks in his three seasons: Matt Ryan in 2021, Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder in 2022, and then Ridder and Taylor Heinicke this season. Perhaps it was the decision to go with Ridder – and then Ridder's propensity for turnovers and critical errors – that ultimately brought Smith down.
Smith and general manager Terry Fontenot were hired in an unenviable situation and spent two offseasons trying to clean it up. This season was the first in which Smith had a roster made up primarily of players he and Fontenot were looking for. There was no improvement in the protocol or at quarterback.
Smith's playmaking and decision-making were also suspect at times. Against the Carolina Panthers in Week 15, he followed a far too conservative game plan against a one-win Panthers team. It was a decision that contributed to Atlanta's 9-7 loss to the Panthers and threatened their playoff hopes.
Atlanta had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL and couldn't take advantage of it. The Falcons lost to the Panthers, Arizona Cardinals, Washington Commanders and Tennessee Titans – all teams that finished in the bottom 10.
“If you look at it, there were moments in games where we obviously looked good,” offensive coordinator Dave Ragone said. “And there were times when we struggled.”
On offense, Ragone called eliminating turnovers and improving third-down conversion rates inconsistent; The Falcons ranked 24th with 28 turnovers and 13th with a 40% success rate on third downs.
What is the pulse of the locker room?
The Falcons' players seemed to genuinely enjoy playing for Smith and often supported him when questions about his job arose toward the end of the season. There was a consensus that they appreciated how he treated them as players and how he also handled the responsibility.
“I believe in what he stands for and what we’re trying to accomplish here,” left tackle Jake Matthews said on Dec. 17. “And I am absolutely convinced.”
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Even after the disastrous loss to the Saints in the season finale, they continued to support their coach. Several players expressed that the problems did not lie with the coaching staff and that they hoped the staff would return in 2024.
The concept of shared responsibility – which Smith preached often and publicly to his team – resonated with the players. The locker room stayed together until the last few days. After the final day of practice, Smith even participated in a brief shootout at a basketball hoop in the locker room.
“Coach Smith is the best coach I've ever had,” right guard Chris Lindstrom told ESPN on Sunday. “I absolutely love him and I think this group and this team does too.”
While money also helps attract free agents, Atlanta was able to acquire coveted players like safety Jessie Bates III and defensive lineman Calais Campbell this offseason in part because they believed in what Smith wanted to build.
So why didn't it work?
It starts with the quarterback.
Ridder was named the starter in 2023 after playing in four games at the end of the 2022 season. He showed potential that was marred by fumbles and untimely interceptions, which eventually led to a disagreement between Ridder and Heinicke, who had starting experience in Washington.
While the quarterback was the main problem – along with defensive issues in Smith's first two seasons, which were largely addressed by the hiring of defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen and a personnel upgrade last offseason – there were other factors on offense.
For every well-thought-out and innovative play Smith came up with, there was the decision to run on a third-and-long situation or give the ball to someone other than one of his stars in critical situations.
But Smith's failed tenure can be attributed to problems at quarterback.
What's next for the quarterback?
The new coach will dictate that, but it seems clear that Ridder and Heinicke are not the answers.
While Ridder had flashes of success, he turned the ball over far too often to be an effective starter, including in the season finale when he was reinstated as a starter after Heinicke suffered an ankle injury and had two turnovers in the second half – an interception and a lost fumble. His decision-making was head-scratching at times. Ridder threw an interception in the end zone against Washington, a fumble across the goal line against Tampa Bay and an interception in the red zone against Carolina; Two of these three games ended in defeats.
Ridder finished the season completing 64.2% of his passes for 2,836 yards, 12 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and 12 fumbles. Heinicke had a 54.4% completion rate for 890 yards, five touchdowns and four interceptions.
A question for the new coach will be whether Ridder and/or Heinicke should remain in the team as replacements. Heinicke has one season left on his contract and a $9 million cap hit for 2024. Ridder's rookie contract has two years remaining. But it would be hard to imagine a coach sticking with Ridder as a starter.
Whether Atlanta goes for an experienced starter or takes a rookie in the upcoming draft may depend on the next head coach and offensive coordinator. A rookie may have to move up in the draft, but the Falcons have cap space to spend. The problem might be who is available. Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield and Ryan Tannehill are the top quarterbacks scheduled to become free agents.
Who could Atlanta be targeting as their next coach?
Teams often take the opposite approach to what they had before, so Blank and Fontenot could consider a candidate with previous head coaching experience. However, this may not be the most attractive year for it, especially because former Detroit Lions and Indianapolis Colts head coach Jim Caldwell said last year that he was tired of pursuing head coaching jobs (he could have been a sensible choice).
Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh would be an obvious choice as he has won everywhere he has coached in college and in the NFL. Despite being 71 years old and suffering losing seasons in three of his last four years, Bill Belichick remains one of the greatest coaches of all time and would be worth a call-up if he were to part ways with the New England Patriots.
Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson might make a lot of sense considering Atlanta's offensive playmakers are similar to the Lions' No. 1 receiver (Detroit's Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Atlanta's Drake London) and No. 1 tight end. 1 (Sam LaPorta) against Kyle Pitts) and running back (David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs against Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson).
If the Las Vegas Raiders decide not to retain interim coach Antonio Pierce, he would be someone worth interviewing and taking a closer look at based on his performance this season.
Regardless of who Atlanta has its sights on, the head coaching position should be an attractive job given the team's offensive talent, adequate player depth and young playmakers on defense. In addition, the new coach will not be tied to the incumbent quarterbacks.