BEIRUT – FROM OUR CORRESPONDENT
Relations between the White House and Bibi Netanyahu are at an all-time low. Joe Biden is failing to make his voice heard and the interests of the US and Israel are drifting apart, at least as with the aircraft carrier Gerald Ford. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in the Middle East and says at every stop that “an expansion of the conflict in “It would be in nobody's interest.” He explains to his Arab interlocutors (who are nervous about the massacres in Gaza and unfamiliar with their own public opinion) that Israel must limit the number of civilian casualties. In response, Gaza experienced the bloodiest day of 2024 with 247 Palestinians killed.
The Washington Post reveals that the American DIA warned Israel against attacking Hezbollah, the pro-Iranian militia in Lebanon. It would split forces between Gaza and the northern front, experts say, expose Israeli cities to Hezbollah's powerful ballistic missiles, cause between 300,000 and 500,000 Lebanese casualties and therefore pressure Iran into a response. The United States would be simultaneously embroiled in several quadrants that it would like to avoid.
Israel's decision was to attack on three different fronts. In the first attack in Lebanon, a key military commander of Hezbollah's special forces was killed with a precision missile. It is the second targeted killing after that of a high-ranking Hamas official in Beirut. Two more attacks between Syria and Iraq against pro-Iranian militias. “An unprecedented wave,” Portal sources said. More accurately, it would be a “new phase” of war, but if it is not a provocation, it resembles one.
Netanyahu is in trouble on many fronts besides the judiciary. He must find a solution for the 70,000 to 80,000 Israelis who have fled the border with Lebanon to avoid Hezbollah's bombs. He wants to create a buffer zone to which Hezbollah no longer has access. It would be the application of UN Resolution 1701, but the US believes it can achieve this goal through negotiations, not bombs.
An initial positive reaction came from Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib. “The regular army is ready to disarm Hezbollah, but Israel must withdraw from the occupied territories and stop any violation of our national sovereignty.” According to the US, Hezbollah does not want open war. He could agree to a withdrawal in exchange for political recognition and economic aid, but will only negotiate after the ceasefire in Gaza. He is now flexing his muscles: one of his rockets severely damaged an Israeli air force base.
Europe is on the same wavelength as America. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell accompanied Blinken in Saudi Arabia to prevent the conflict from spreading, and Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani opened Italy's year-long G7 presidency by “working with Israel on a rapid exit from the military phase.”