LETTER FROM SAN FRANCISCO
Most Americans won't believe it, but official statistics say it: Crime is declining in the United States. A “historic” decline, even assures criminologist Jeff Asher. Such information should reassure citizens on the eve of a crucial election year. This does not appear to be the case. Rather, the national perception is that violence is increasing; All other considerations fail.
Homicides saw a record decline in 2023, according to a study by AH Datalytics, co-founded by Jeff Asher. The analysts relied on preliminary statistics from one hundred and seventy-seven major cities. These show a number of homicides (around 18,450) that is expected to decrease by almost 13%. In general, the fluctuations from year to year are 2 to 3%, recalls the specialist. The largest decline (9%) was recorded in 1996. An exceptional increase (30%) followed the lockdown in 2020. While the decline this year is welcome, crime has not all returned to pre-pandemic levels, he said.
With the exception of Memphis and Washington, the federal capital, which for unknown reasons saw a number of murders unprecedented in twenty years (two hundred and seventy-two), most major cities recorded a sharp decline in statistics: -19% in Philadelphia, -18% in Atlanta, -16% in Los Angeles, -12% in Chicago, -11% in New York. Up to -25% in New Orleans, which ranked first in crime in 2022, and in Baltimore, where the number of murders fell below three hundred for the first time since 2015.
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Proximity police
Other forms of crime — rapes, burglaries, armed assaults, etc. — are compiled by the FBI based on numbers volunteered by 14,000 of the country's approximately 18,000 law enforcement agencies. According to data published by the Federal Office in December for the period from January 1st to September 30th, these forms of crime have also decreased: – 6.3% for burglaries and property crimes, the lowest value since 1961. “This is a historic value.” decline,” Jeff Asher said on C-Span. We see it everywhere: in big cities, suburbs, rural areas. » Notable exception: car thefts continue to increase. A phenomenon that experts attribute to the ease, described on TikTok since July 2022, of stealing certain models (Kia, Hyundai) that were sold without an immobilizer.
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