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With around half of the world's adult population voting in a record year of elections, concerns about the role of artificial intelligence in affecting election results top the list of top risks for 2024, according to a new report.
The World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report 2024, released on Wednesday, ranks AI-based misinformation and disinformation – and their impact on societal polarization – among the top 10 risks of the next two years, ahead of climate change, war and economic weakness.
“AI can develop models to influence large groups of voters in ways we've never seen before,” Carolina Klint, chief commercial officer for Europe at consulting firm Marsh McLennan, which co-produced the report, told CNBC's Silvia Amaro.
“It will be very important for us to watch how this plays out,” she added.
Looking further ahead, the balance of risks over the next decade is shifting towards extreme weather and critical shifts in the global political order, with two-thirds of respondents expecting a new multipolar or fragmented world to take shape.
The WEF report, also produced in collaboration with Zurich Insurance Group, surveyed over 1,400 global risk experts, policymakers and industry leaders in September 2023 about their top global concerns.
The report's authors said the combined risks are “pushing the world's ability to adapt to its limits” and called on leaders to focus on global cooperation and building guardrails against the most devastating new risks.
“An unstable global order characterized by polarizing narratives and uncertainty, the worsening impacts of extreme weather and economic uncertainty are leading to an accelerated spread of risks – including misinformation and disinformation,” said Saadia Zahidi, executive director of the WEF.
“World leaders must come together to address short-term crises and lay the foundation for a more resilient, sustainable and inclusive future,” she added.
Top 10 global risks
The most frequently cited risks for the next two years were, in order: misinformation and disinformation, extreme weather events, societal polarization, cyber insecurity and interstate armed conflict. The top 10 also includes a lack of economic opportunity, inflation, involuntary migration, economic downturn and environmental pollution.
Extreme weather events, critical changes to Earth systems, loss of biodiversity and ecosystem collapse, scarcity of natural resources, and misinformation and disinformation were cited as the most likely risks over the next decade. Undesirable consequences of AI technologies were also mentioned as a longer-term problem.
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2 years
1
Misinformation and disinformation
5
Interstate armed conflict
6
Lack of economic opportunities
ten years
2
Critical change in Earth systems
3
Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse
4
National resource scarcity
5
Misinformation and disinformation
6
Adverse consequences of AI technologies
Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2024
“Breakthroughs in artificial intelligence will radically change the risk outlook for organizations as many struggle to respond to threats posed by misinformation, disintermediation and strategic miscalculations,” Klint said in the report.
“At the same time, companies must contend with supply chains that are becoming more complex due to geopolitics, climate change and cyber threats from a growing number of malicious actors. “Relentless focus is needed to build resilience at organizational, country and international levels – and greater collaboration between the public and private sectors – to navigate this rapidly evolving risk landscape,” she added.
The report comes as world leaders gather next week in Davos, Switzerland, for the annual WEF summit, where they will discuss global issues under the theme of “reconstruction,” including ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, economics and technology trust .”
The world is also embarking on a historic election year, with Taiwan kicking off elections this weekend that are also scheduled in the United States, India, Russia, South Africa and Mexico.
In a separate global risk report for 2024 released on Monday, Eurasia Group named the upcoming US election as its biggest risk for the year, with “uncontrolled AI” also ranking in the top five.
Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group, said in a press conference that the consulting firm had “no choice” but to rate the risk ahead of the wars between Russia and Ukraine and between Israel and Hamas, given the broader implications of the election result.