Catalans believe that Catalan independence is very unlikely. This perception comes from the annual survey conducted by the Institute of Political and Social Sciences (ICPS) of Catalonia, subordinate to the Provincial Council of Barcelona and the Autonomous University of Barcelona, which shows that only 5% believe that the Republic of Catalan will be a reality. The data confirms that support for independence (39.5%) remains below support for belonging in Spain (52.5%). The institute assures that the ERC has not exploited its leadership role in the Catalan Generalitat and that the Junts and the PSC have regained influence among voters. The survey also shows that acceptance of immigration has increased, but notes growing rejection of feminism and homosexuality among younger men.
The results of the ICPS study confirm that the independence movement continues to lose momentum in a context in which the relationship of ERC and Junts with the state parties in the House of Representatives is becoming more important. The 1,200 responses collected by the Gesop Institute were recorded in November last year, in the middle of the negotiations between Junts and the PSOE over the inauguration of Pedro Sánchez, a context that, according to the analysts, “impacted” the data collected. And in this situation, Junts makes better use of the political context than Esquerra. Junts' voting intention in parliament almost doubles in a year, rising from 8% to 15.5%, while the ERC rises from 18% to 19.5%. The PSC remains at 16%. The poll also shows a transfer of votes to the Junts of Esquerra (10%, compared to 4.9% who do the opposite) and even from the CUP (10.9%). “This shows that Junts has regained a certain appeal among independence voters,” explained Oriol Bartomeus, director of the ICPS, this Thursday.
There are even more reasons to be happy in the post-convergent party. Former President Carles Puigdemont is the Catalans' preferred candidate for President of the Generalitat. 16.7% of respondents consider the leader of the Junts as the preferred favorite to lead the government, a figure higher than that of Oriol Junqueras (12.8%) and Salvador Illa (11.7%). What stands out is the support that the former president receives among voters in the CUP (29.1%) and Esquerras (19.3%), where he even surpasses the current president Pere Aragonès. What is striking is the lack of general support that Aragonès receives (7.3%). The question only allowed an open answer and 36% indicated no preference.
But if Junts rises, the independence movement continues to lose strength. The preference for independence as the best territorial division remains the favorite among respondents, although with a steady decline since 2012 (from 44% to 34% currently), when the independence race began. The then President of the Generalitat, Artur Mas, admitted two weeks ago in La Vanguardia that “today the project does not have the conditions to move forward”. Behind this is the interest in preserving the autonomous community (29%), a federal state (20.6%) and a region of Spain (8.6%, twice as much as in 2012). “In the dichotomy of independence yes or independence no, the positive reaction is always slightly higher because some defenders of the federal relationship join in the reaction,” Bartomeus understands.
However, despite the desires, respondents minimize the actual opportunities to consume independence. Only 5% expect the process to end with independence, a similar figure to last year (4%) but a decline since 2015 (17%). Among independence voters, the proportion who are convinced is higher (12%, compared to 43% in 2015). On the other hand, the majority (54%) believe that the process will lead to greater self-government in Catalonia.
youthful machismo
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The survey also analyzes the population's perception of social issues and shows results “that tell us something,” says Bartomeus, in reference to growing youth machismo. 15.4% of boys between 18 and 24 consider homosexuality to be “serious”, a significantly higher percentage than in other age groups (only the rejection rate of 3.8% is higher among people over 65). ). The same thing happens with feminism: 58% of boys “agree” with the concept of feminism, the age group with the least support. The opposite is true for women. The younger they are (between 18 and 34 years old), the more they support it (around 81%).
With regard to immigration, the survey confirms an improvement in attitudes towards immigrants. 24% of respondents consider it serious to have a mosque near their home, compared to 38.3% in 2001; 2.3% consider it serious to have an immigrant neighbor, compared to 10.9% in 2001. “Either there is not much social support on this topic or we have not found it,” analyzes the director of the ICPS and adds The problems arising from the relationship with immigrants relate to “social rather than economic” problems.
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