by Guido Santevecchi
On Saturday, January 13, the island will elect its new president: the favorites include outgoing deputy Lai Ching-te, former police chief Hou You-ih, surgeon Ko Wen-jie, former mayor of Taipei
FROM OUR CORRESPONDENT
TAIPEI – Rallies of the three presidential candidates packed with people, contenders for the 113 seats of the Legislative Yuan (Taipei's parliament), walking around the city in open vans, door-to-door propaganda in the villages, personally canvassing for every vote .
a campaign, also in the old pre-Social style, that of Taiwan, the democratic island of 23 million people that can supply 90 percent of the most advanced semiconductors that power the world's globalized industry. Taiwan, which Beijing considers one of its reunified provinces, is voting, and people here appear much calmer than Western governments that fear a third war front. The Taiwanese are used to decades of threats, planes, spy balloons and even gunfire and missiles coming from across the strait.
The outcome of the presidential election is uncertain. With their nuances of thinking, the three presidential candidates share a problem: the idea of a prosperous and democratic island where Chinese is spoken, which Xi Jinping cannot accept.
Lai Ching-te, the progressive
The Chinese Communist Party, which never submits to popular elections and claims that they destroy harmony and sow chaos, has decided to elect Taiwan's next president on its own terms. Beijing is warning its compatriots, saying they are faced with a choice between war and peace. The election of Lai Ching-te of the DPP, the Democratic Progressive Party, which has been in government for eight years, as president would lead to ruin. Lai Ching-te (who calls himself William for convenience), 64 years old, current deputy to President Tsai Ing-wen, who is leaving the stage after two terms in office, had in the past defined himself as a political activist for Taiwan's independence. He corrected his position and now said that there is no desire to officially proclaim independence, our island is already de facto sovereign and the status quo in the Strait serves the interests of global stability. His goal is to strengthen the island's military defenses to repel a Chinese invasion, counting on help from the United States. All in all, the Chinese statement against him helps him on the internal front, because he has a good hand when he explains that we cannot rely on the goodwill of those who threaten attacks and invasion: peace is our way , Democracy is our path compass. His victory would be a record as the DPP has been in power for two terms and voters have never allowed a third consecutive term in Taiwan's history. Its weakness is that in eight years, President Tsai has never (really) sought an opportunity to dialogue with Beijing. Now Lai says his victory would give Xi a political opportunity: to responsibly return to supporting the international order by resuming talks with Taiwan. He appointed a woman as his deputy: Hsiao Bi-khim, 52 years old. A decision that poses a challenge to Beijing: the lady was de facto ambassador to the United States for three years and was blacklisted by China for this reason. Hsiao is nicknamed the Cat Warrior, given to him to mock the wolf warriors of aggressive Chinese diplomacy. Cats are agile, flexible and can maintain balance in small spaces. You can't force them to do things they don't want to.
Hou Yu-ih, flexible towards Beijing
How to prevent the invasion threatened by Xi Jinping? The Kuomintang candidate, seeking to return to power after eight years of anti-Chinese and quasi-independent DPP rule, has developed a 3D policy. Hou Yu-ih, 66, a former police commander who became known as the mayor of New Taipei (the satellite city of the capital Taipei), explains that 3D stands for defense, dialogue and de-escalation. According to the man who is tied in the polls with William Lai, in the face of the threat from Beijing, it is not enough to strengthen armed defenses, we must find a way to reduce tensions and restart dialogue. Hou argues that the current Taiwan government, despite its rigidity, has not found a way to cooperate with China, even in the face of the common ultimate challenge in fighting the pandemic, and therefore it is necessary to take some conciliatory steps. The Kuomintang was also Mao's ally in the Patriotic War against the invading Japanese, then fought and lost in the Civil War. He knows his opponent well. As president, would Hou meet Xi Jinping, as his Kuomintang predecessor Ma Ying-jeou did in 2015, and make history with a 46-second handshake? Times have changed, I have no unrealistic illusions about China. First of all, we must try to renew contacts between private individuals, win back the millions of Chinese tourists who have arrived from the continent, resume exchanges between our scientists and theirs, and then restart trade flows, and a new political dialogue could follow, he replies. And to dispel any doubt that he wants to give in too much, he immediately adds that we also need to increase defense spending and increase military cooperation with the United States. But here too with realism: Taiwan does not have the military strength to repel an invasion, we can only make it clear to China that the price of war would be too high. Hou is massive like a movie cop and plays with it: A president must look after the interests of people who want to live in peace before ideology, I know how to do it, as a police officer I have defended people from crime for thirty years. Basic message to the Taiwanese who will vote tomorrow: Do you think the situation could improve if Lai Ching-te wins?
The third way of surgeon Ko
There is a third man in the race for Taiwan's presidency: 64-year-old surgeon Ko Wen-jie, who leads the Taiwan People's Party (TPP). He suggests a different path for the dangerous navigation: neither de facto independentist like Lai, nor conciliatory like Hou. There is no further step after saying no to Beijing, so we have to think about how we can have a dialogue without obeying the dictates. I'm not saying that I would be the best president, but rather the one who best suits the situation. Doctor Ko was mayor of Taipei from 2014 to 2022, he has a good following among young voters because he talks about the too low salaries, the strenuous work shifts, the houses at prohibitive costs, the support of young couples without children. In order to keep up with the times, he went on stage with children dancing and singing in his campaign commercials. He has a character weakness, he doesn't like contact with people: his opponents have diagnosed social embarrassments. He doesn't deny it: You know, I worked as an intensive care unit surgeon for many years and all my patients were intubated, they couldn't speak, so I got used to working for them without arguing. But in emergency surgical situations, you can't be emotional, you have to assert rationality and mental order, just like a president who wants to save Taiwan. He doesn't appear to have the numbers to become president against the two traditional parties, but his votes can tip the balance in the election campaign.
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January 11, 2024 (modified January 11, 2024 | 10:59 p.m.)
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