If you lack imagination, it's a simple reflex. When the polls first dip, we say to ourselves: Why not have a small reshuffle to revitalize our government?
Published at 1:07 am. Updated at 6:00 am.
But that won't happen at the start of the year at the CAQ. For François Legault that would be a very bad idea.
The Caquists' recent setbacks result from decisions improvised in apparent panic. A good example: the relaunch of the Third Left the day after the defeat in the by-election in Jean-Talon. A reshuffle would seem like an admission of failure and a new maneuver to climb back up in the polls.
The government is entering its second year in office. Given the economic downturn, it will be difficult no matter what he does.
It is better to avoid actions that, in order to make a quick difference, deviate from the long-term goal: improving the lives of students and patients and those who work with them.
In order for the mood of voters to change, the effects of the reforms must be at least somewhat noticeable from 2025 onwards. At the very least, people need to believe that the CAQ's projects serve a purpose.
Most ministers' menus are already overflowing. The year 2024 will be the year of delivery. And stability is crucial for this. The government does not want to put this work on hold while it waits for a new minister to get its files in order.
In any case, changes rarely have the effect that one would expect them to have. The influence on the polls is moderate, as shown by Justin Trudeau's last summer – name three recruits who were promoted into the federal cabinet from memory…
These musical chair games are more about getting rid of fools, recruiting stars – they are rare – and replacing departing veterans at the end of their term with new faces.
This kind of exercise is dangerous for a prime minister. Backbenchers usually have one thing in common: they are convinced that they are better than the minister hit by the latest controversy. A reshuffle awakens these ambitions and inevitably disappoints them. This makes the caucus more difficult to manage. Especially when the team, like Mr. Legault's, consists of 88 elected officials.
A reshuffle serves to revitalize a government, but it is more likely to look for runways.
Christian Dubé must found Santé Québec and choose its leaders. The phasing out of the use of private employment agencies continues, as does the division of occupations and the establishment of nursing clinics. There is also the expected action plan to ensure that people registered with the First Line Access Center can see a doctor within a reasonable time frame. Without forgetting the hope that the digitization of the files will lead to the creation of the online platform “Your Health”. And that's just a preview.
Bernard Drainville reassured many Caquistes with his back-to-school plan that was praised by the community. If unions accept the agreement in principle, they will have to find the promised classroom support, respond to demand for reception classes due to temporary record immigration, establish the National Institute of Excellence and recruit new teachers. Education faculties regret the shortage and oppose Mr. Drainville's acceleration of skills training to recruit more graduates in other disciplines.
PHOTO CHRISTINNE MUSCHI, CANADIAN PRESS ARCHIVE
The Minister of Education Bernard Drainville
In public transport, Minister Geneviève Guilbault is tired of announcing postponements and cost overruns. His bill to create an agency is expected before the summer. Expectations are high for Quebec's shelved tram and the one that could be proposed in eastern Montreal.
In finance, Eric Girard seems irredeemable despite his disastrous initiative to use public money for the Kings' millionaires.
His budget will be even more complicated than expected. In November he cut his economic growth forecast by half and also drew on his reserves for unforeseen expenses. The fundamental agreement with the unions will lead to a recurring increase in spending of several billion in the long term. This is the price to pay for quality public services.
At the Ministry of Finance, Sonia LeBel is valued by her colleagues. After the negotiations, his diplomacy will be tested again. Rising health and education costs combined with the economic downturn will lead to difficult decisions, and it is Ms. LeBel who will have to say no to certain departments.
PHOTO EDOUARD PLANTE-FRÉCHETTE, LA PRESSE ARCHIVE
Treasury Board President Sonia LeBel
Pierre Fitzgibbon will not be moving to Energy. In an expected bill, he must find a pricing scale that protects the dividend returned to the state without weakening SMEs or encouraging waste and that imposes a fair contribution on industrial consumers. He also wants to complete the battery sector by implementing the recycling aspect with a local company. This is good for ecology and economic nationalism. However, the current context will make financing these projects more complex.
PHOTO EDOUARD PLANTE-FRÉCHETTE, LA PRESSE ARCHIVE
The Minister for Business, Innovation and Energy, Pierre Fitzgibbon
Then, of course, there is the enormous challenge of building something equivalent to half of Hydro-Québec's current production. However, there is a shortage of construction workers. This will also complicate several other fundamental functions of the state – this will be the topic of my next column.
This is why the CAQ government is seeking stability at the start of the year. Internally, the motto is: stability and cohesion. This means: Stop criticizing your colleagues and putting yourself out there because of personal ambition or incompetence.
A cabinet reshuffle takes place in every government. There will be one at some point, but not until summer. When then ? It will depend on the quality of work in the next few months.