Reunion Island remains under a Hurricane Orange Alert. Belal has now become a tropical cyclone and is now moving at a speed of 13 km/h.
Reunion Island remains under a Hurricane Orange Alert. Belal continues its phase of sustained to rapid intensification. The system reached tropical cyclone stage at 7 a.m. local time this morning, just over 300 km northwest (18.7 South / 53.4 East). Intensification to the stage of an intense tropical cyclone is expected over the next 24 hours, with a system gradually approaching the Greater Mascarene Islands from the west-northwest. Its speed decreased slightly: 13 km/h towards the south-southwest.
Belal is therefore expected to be a very dangerous cyclone, accompanied by extreme winds and located near the center of the phenomenon as it approaches the sister islands and Réunion in particular during the night from Sunday to Monday and on Monday day. The uncertainty about the exact trajectory is still on the order of 100 to 120 km, but the probability of passing in close proximity to Reunion Island is significant.
For the island of Reunion, it is likely that the intense heart of the meteor will pass less than 100 km from the island during Monday. In the current preferred scenario, the island may face a strong cyclone impact with the possibility of devastating winds. Whatever happens, even with a passage of 50 to 100 km from the island, significant impacts are expected due to strong winds, heavy rains and cyclonic waves.
Very deteriorated conditions in terms of wind, rain and waves are also expected in Mauritius from Monday or even the following night, although the likelihood of a direct influence of the center of the cyclone on the island appears to be less high than on Réunion.
Here are the forecast intensities and positions of this low pressure system for the coming days:
Intense tropical cyclone,
The center was opened on January 15th. positioned at 20.4 South / 54.1 East at 4 a.m. local time.
TROPICAL CYCLONE,
The center opened on January 16th. at 4 a.m. local time positioned at 21.7 South / 57.0 East.
TROPICAL CYCLONE,
Center positioned on January 17th. at 4 a.m. local time, at 22.6 South / 60.1 East.
TROPICAL CYCLONE,
Location of the center on January 18th at 4 a.m. local time, 22.8 South/62.6 East.
TROPICAL CYCLONE,
Location of the center on January 19th at 4 a.m. local time, 22.5 South / 63.2 East.