Some experts say the US and British bombing campaigns are likely to escalate the situation in the Red Sea.
US airstrikes target sites used by Houthi rebels in Yemen
US and British militaries attacked sites in Yemen linked to rebels who have attacked ships in the Red Sea.
Coordinated US and British bombings on Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen early Friday were in retaliation for weeks of attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea. The question that arises: Is the USA rushing towards war?
The attacks represent a significant escalation in U.S. involvement in the Middle East amid Israel's war in Gaza – and perhaps the most dangerous escalation of a conflict that threatens to spread throughout the region. Just days earlier, Secretary of State Antony Blinken launched his fourth urgent mission to the Middle East in three months to contain the impact of the ongoing conflict.
Some foreign and defense experts say the U.S. military response against the Houthis may not deter a battle-hardened group that has survived years of bombing by a coalition of Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – and has sworn – relatively unscathed not to stop its attacks until Israel has completely ended its military operation in Gaza.
“The U.S. has now placed itself in a situation where further military action is all but certain if (or more likely, if) the Houthis strike back, creating a contest that could quickly spiral out of control,” said Daniel DePetris , a foreign policy fellow at Defense Priorities, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank that advocates for a smaller global role for the U.S. military.
Whether it is a series of limited strikes or the start of a longer, more complex war, the timing could have far-reaching political implications in a U.S. presidential election year
Why are Houthis attacking ships in the Red Sea?
There have been 27 Houthi attacks since November – attacks portrayed as retaliation for Israel's war in Gaza that began after the October 7 Hamas attack.
The Pentagon said initial assessments of damage from a spate of U.S.-led attacks on sites in Yemen used by Houthi fighters to fire missiles and drones on commercial shipping routes in the Red Sea were positive.
The U.S. military fired missiles from ships and submarines and supported these attacks with airstrikes by American and British warplanes on Houthi sites hosting drones, ballistic and cruise missiles, and coastal radar stations. Several other nations supported the attack.
“Early indications are that they have had a good impact,” Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, said Friday. “We have not seen any retaliation from the Houthis so far.”
Still, the Houthis have vowed that the U.S. and U.K. attacks will not be without “punishment or retaliation.”
It's a promise that could bring the United States and a handful of its Western allies ever closer to all-out war in the Middle East, experts say.
“Bombing them will very likely escalate matters, meaning that not only will the attacks not be stopped, but the broader war that (President Joe) Biden wants to prevent is likely to become a reality,” Trita Parsi said in Washington , DC-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft when the attacks began.
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“The attacks on the Houthis will not work,” said Benjamin H. Friedman, policy director at Defense Priorities. “That means it is very unlikely that they will stop the Houthi attacks on shipping.”
Friedman said “the likely failure of the attacks will lead to an escalation to more violent means, which may also fail.”
Attacks against Yemen's Houthis: What just happened?
The US and Britain, with support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand and South Korea, bombed more than a dozen sites in Yemen used by Houthi rebels. They attacked the Houthi's missile, radar and drone infrastructure to limit their ability to attack international merchant ships and warships in the Red Sea.
The U.S. Air Force Middle East Command said it hit over 60 targets at 16 locations in Yemen, including “command and control nodes, ammunition depots, launch systems, production facilities and air defense radar systems.”
A Houthi military spokesman said at least five of its fighters were killed and six wounded in the attacks.
Is this a war?
The Biden administration emphasized Friday that the military action in the Middle East is not an all-out war.
“There is no war with the Houthis,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said during an Air Force One briefing for reporters. “We are not seeking war in Yemen.”
“This was intended to disrupt it and weaken the Houthi military capabilities,” Kirby said, adding that they were still assessing the impact of the attacks.
Kirby also said the U.S. would continue to hold Iran accountable for “its destabilizing activities” because it supported the Houthis, Hezbollah and Hamas, although he did not detail any specific plans.
Asked about the involvement of Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who is still hospitalized, in the planning of the attacks, Kirby described it as “seamless.”
“His participation was no different than any other day, except for briefing the president on options and participating in the discussions at the hospital,” he said.
Who are the Houthi rebels?
The Houthis are an armed group from Yemen's Shiite minority.
Along with Hamas and Hezbollah in Lebanon, they are part of a group of Iranian-backed militants in the Middle East that view Israel, the United States and the Western world as their enemies.
After the Hamas attacks on Israel, Houthi leader Abdul Malik Al-Houthi said his troops were “ready to march in their hundreds of thousands to join the Palestinian people and confront the enemy.”
The Houthis are trained, financed and militarily supported by Iran. They have been waging a bitter war with Yemen's internationally recognized government since 2014. The Houthis control northwest Yemen and its capital Sanaa.
One of the reasons Iran supports the Houthis is its longstanding hostility toward Saudi Arabia, which, along with the United Arab Emirates, is trying to restore Yemen's exiled government to power. Some progress has been made towards a peace solution in recent years, but this is temporary and fragile.
Years of waves of bombings against the Houthis by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have not proven effective in weakening their military power. after Thomas JuneauProfessor of International Affairs at the University of Ottawa, Canada.
Britain and US bomb Houthis in Yemen. What now?
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak described the attacks as “limited, necessary and proportionate”. President Joe Biden warned of possible further action to “protect our people and the free flow of international trade.”
However, there was no indication that further bombings were planned immediately.
For now, the proverbial ball is in the Houthis’ court.
Nevertheless, Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a senior Houthi official, said both countries would “regret” their “follies.” He said: “Soon they will realize that direct aggression against Yemen was the greatest folly in their history.”
And Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdulsalam threw down the gauntlet more directly, saying the group would continue to target ships bound for Israeli ports as well as others passing through the waterway.
In Iran, Nasser Kanani, a spokesman for the country's foreign ministry, wrote on the Telegram platform that the attacks “will have no other result than stoking insecurity and instability in the region.”
In an analysis written days before Friday's retaliatory strikes by the U.S. and Britain, Gregory D. Johnsen, a Yemen expert at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, appeared to agree with that assessment.
“The Houthis have not been deterred by the United States shooting down their drones and missiles and sinking their ships,” he wrote. “What if the rocket attacks were no different? What if, instead of being deterred by US airstrikes, the Houthis were actually emboldened?”
Farea Al-Muslimi, a Yemen-born Middle East and North Africa expert at Chatham House, a London think tank, said the Houthi sites targeted by the U.S. and Britain “are actually just peanuts in the broader context of Houthi weapons and armament” are military capabilities – especially their naval weapons. They are smarter, more prepared and more equipped than anyone really acknowledges.”
Al-Muslimi said the attacks would not deter the Houthis from further attacks in the Red Sea.
“If anything, the opposite is true.”
Contributor: Swapna Venugopal