A Russian attack on NATO in phase 2 of the war. It is the scenario that Germany does not reject and that it actually illustrates in a secret document published by Bild. While Ukraine is aiming for a high-level summit on its peace plan and President Volodymyr Zelensky is currently in Davos, Russian President Vladimir Putin could move in the opposite direction and plan an escalation, which is mentioned in an armed forces response plan developed by the Federal Ministry of Defense Defense. The document puts forward the hybrid attack hypothesis that Moscow could be preparing a hybrid attack on NATO.
In the secret file, the Federal Ministry of Defense outlines in detail the possible “path to conflict” between Russia and the Western defense alliance. Month after month, both Russian and Western actions are described. Among other things, the Bundeswehr, which combines the armed forces of the Federal Republic of Germany, plans to mobilize hundreds of thousands of NATO soldiers.
The escalation
Russia wants to call up another 200,000 men to launch a new offensive against Ukraine in the spring. According to these scenarios, Moscow would then begin increasingly open attacks against the West in the summer months, starting with serious cyber attacks.
The major maneuver with 50,000 soldiers in western Russia and Belarus is scheduled to begin in September. At the end of the year there would be a Russian invasion of areas of eastern Ukraine, after which NATO would station around 300,000 troops on Ukraine's eastern flank.
The Berlin Defense Ministry declined to comment. “Basically, I can tell you that evaluating various – even extremely unlikely – scenarios is part of everyday military action, especially in training,” a spokesman told Bild.
Last week, Swedish security experts warned of the risk of war with Russia. “Many have said it before me, but let me say it on my authority: There could be a war in Sweden,” said Carl-Oskar Bohlin, Sweden’s civil protection minister. “Everyone needs to prepare for the worst case scenario, such as war with Russia, before it is too late,” he added.
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