The NFL playoffs are in full swing. Super Wild Card Weekend has just arrived in our rearview mirror and we are now quickly racing towards the Division Round, which features some great matchups.
Patrick Mahomes will be on the road for the first time in his playoff career as the Chiefs travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills. Meanwhile, the other AFC game pits a standout QB against one another, with MVP favorite Lamar Jackson facing off against Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite CJ Stroud. In the NFC, the Niners are coming off the bye week and hosting the Jordan Love-led Packers, who just upset the Cowboys in Dallas. Fresh off their first playoff win since 1991, the Lions host the Buccaneers, who defeated the Eagles at home on Monday night. As we said, we've got another fantastic weekend of football ahead of us and we're here to give you a first look at the action.
Here's a first look at the divisional round and some storylines to keep an eye on.
Outlook for the AFC divisional round
Texans (4) at Baltimore Ravens (1)
Saturday, January 20 at 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN, ABC, fubo)
Odds (via Caesars Sportsbook): Ravens -9.5, O/U 45.5
This is a game with two quarterbacks who will likely bring home some hardware at NFL Honors. Lamar Jackson is the presumptive MVP after leading the Ravens to the No. 1 seed in the conference, while CJ Stroud shined in his first year in the league and is the overwhelming favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. From a quarterback perspective, it's a phenomenal matchup that we'll be seeing for years to come, as Jackson is only 27 and Stroud is only 22.
As far as their teams go, the Ravens have been dominant this season, especially on defense. They were the league's second-best unit in the red zone, allowing opponents to score on just 40.8% of their drives. They also had a league-best 4.6 yards per play allowed and were also in the top 10 on third downs. On offense, they could have a key role back with tight end Mark Andrews coming back from an ankle injury that sidelined him missed the second half of the regular season, will return from injured reserve.
For the Texans, the offense led by Stroud executed the football extremely cleverly. They had the fewest giveaways in the league this year, including zero in the wild-card win over Cleveland. Nico Collins will be the key weapon for Stroud that Baltimore will have to try to contain. He exploded for six catches, 96 yards and a touchdown in the win over the Browns. Houston's offense also relied on explosive plays in this playoff win, with four different pass catchers hauling in a pass that traveled 25 or more yards. While Baltimore's defense is elite and will get most of the attention, this Texans unit has been solid. They ranked 13th in the league in red zone efficiency, 14th in yards allowed per game and seventh in the league on third downs.
Kansas City (3) and Buffalo Bills (2)
Sunday, January 21 at 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Odds (via Caesars Sportsbook): Bills -2.5, O/U 46
It doesn't get much better than this – Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen.
This is the third time these rivals have faced off in the playoffs, with Mahomes holding a 2-0 record. However, this will be the first time their matchup will be played in Buffalo. In fact, it will be Mahomes' first time on the road in his playoff career. Overall, this is the seventh meeting between these two QBs and the record is currently 3-3. The last meeting took place at Arrowhead Stadium earlier this season. In this Week 14 game, the Bills were able to claim a 20-17 victory.
The Chiefs come into this game having beaten the Dolphins in pretty convincing fashion. The defense stifled Tua Tagovailoa as Miami scored just seven points in the loss. This unit has truly been Kansa City's calling card this season. They were among the top five units in the league on third downs in the regular season and held the Dolphins to just one third-down turnover on 12 attempts in this playoff win. On offense, the wide receivers have been an issue all year due to their absences, but Rashee Rice has been a bright spot. In Saturday's win, he excelled with eight catches, 130 yards and a touchdown. If he can continue this strong play, he will be a strong complement to tight end Travis Kelce for Mahomes in the passing game.
As for Buffalo, there are injuries to keep an eye on heading into this game. Linebackers Terrell Bernard (ankle) and Baylon Spector (back) along with cornerback Taron Johnson were out of this playoff win against Pittsburgh. In addition to those players, linebacker Tyrel Dodson, safety Taylor Rapp and cornerbacks Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford did not play Monday due to injuries. It's worth keeping an eye on the progress they all make in this short week. Despite this, Buffalo continues to be hot. They won five straight and finished the regular season moving to No. 2 in the conference. Josh Allen played at an MVP level during this run and did a little bit of everything in the win over the Steelers. He had three passing touchdowns and a 52-yard touchdown on Monday.
NFC Divisional Round Outlook
Green Bay Packers (7) at San Francisco 49ers (1)
Saturday, January 20 at 8 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
Odds (via Caesars Sportsbook): 49ers -10, O/U 50
The Packers gave us the stunning opening weekend of the playoffs when they invaded Dallas and beat the Cowboys 48-32 in a game that wasn't even as close as the final score suggested. Jordan Love bore similarities to Aaron Rodgers in this playoff win, completing 16 of his 21 passes for 272 yards and three touchdowns. He distributed the ball to seven different pass catchers and also enjoyed some help from a deadly backfield attack from Aaron Jones. The veteran back rushed for 118 yards on 21 carries and scored three rushing touchdowns in the game-winning drive.
As for the 49ers, they are past their first-round bye and appear ready to go deep. They have been considered the team to beat for most of the year and are currently the betting favorites to win Super Bowl LVIII. They were the second-best offense in the NFL, led the league in yards per play and were fifth-best on third downs. Defensively, they continue to be top-notch, ranking in the top 10 in the league in yards per game. Brock Purdy worked his way into the MVP discussion this year with a spectacular sophomore season, as did running back Christian McCaffrey, who led the league in total yards from scrimmage.
Of course, this coaching duel will also draw some attention given the relationship between Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur and San Francisco's Kyle Shanahan. When Shanahan was Washington's offensive coordinator from 2010 to 2013, LaFleur was his quarterbacks coach. The two then reunited when Shanahan became OC for the Falcons from 2015 to 2016, where LaFleur also served as QB coach before taking on the coordinator role with the Rams (2017) and Titans (2018) before taking over in 2019 accepted the job as head coach of the Packers.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4) at Detroit Lions (3)
Sunday, January 21 at 3 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
Odds (via Caesars Sportsbook): Lions -6, O/U 48.5
The Lions just had their first home playoff game since 1993 and will now play their second in as many weeks as they host the Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon. Detroit earned its first playoff win since 1991 after defeating the Rams on Super Wild Card Weekend, tying the longest playoff losing streak (9) in league history. The Lions' offense got off to a roaring start against LA, scoring touchdowns on the first three possessions of the game and moving the football with relative ease in the first half. In the second game, it was the defense that played a big role, not allowing the Rams to find the end zone on two red zone plays and three total plays in the game. However, the secondary was vulnerable to the pass, as evidenced by Puka Nacua, who set a rookie playoff record of 181 yards against them, albeit in a loss. It will be fascinating to see how this sophomore decides to defend the Buccaneers' pass-catching collection led by Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Tampa Bay defeated the reigning NFC Champion Eagles on Monday night to advance to the divisional round. Baker Mayfield remains arguably the most underrated offseason signing of any team this year. He threw for 337 yards and three touchdowns in the win over Philly. From a play perspective, it will be interesting to see if the Buccaneers can continue their success against the spread on the road. Outside of Raymond James Stadium during the regular season, Tampa Bay went 8-1, a league-best ATS.
The Lions defeated the Buccaneers 20-6 in Tampa in Week 6 this season. In that game, Jared Goff threw for 353 yards and two touchdowns, while Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 12 of his 15 targets for 124 yards and a touchdown. Will there be a repeat? Or is this version of the Buccaneers capable of pulling off another upset?