The UK's bill to deport migrants to Rwanda is approaching a sensitive passage for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Tuesday, January 16, as it risks tearing his camp apart over this controversial text. The text was intended to respond to objections from the Supreme Court, which blocked an earlier version of the project in November, and failed in December over an initial obstacle in Parliament. Now things are getting difficult for Rishi Sunak, who has made the expulsion of migrants who arrived illegally on British soil to Rwanda the focus of his migration policy.
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A risky bet at the start of the election year, with the Conservatives failing to narrow the gap in the polls and continuing to be led by around twenty points by the Labor opposition under Keir Starmer. A YouGov poll published on Monday even suggests that the Tories, in power for fourteen years, could face an even worse electoral debacle than when Tony Blair came to power in 1997.
As the text goes through committee on Tuesday and Wednesday, the right wing of the Tories is trying to tighten what it sees as a too watered-down text through amendments – supported by around sixty MPs, according to the British press. For example, some conservative MPs want to completely eliminate appeal options for deported migrants.
After suffering harsh criticism from his former home secretary Suella Braverman and the resignation of his immigration minister Robert Jenrick, Rishi Sunak is now threatened with rebellion from the vice president. Lee Anderson, leader of the Conservative Party. But tightening the text too radically risks damaging the support of moderate conservatives.
“Legal carousel”
With the amendments having little chance of being passed, there is a risk that things will only become truly complicated at the next Commons vote, when the party's right realizes the threat of a revolt it has been harboring for weeks, according to Rishi Sunak. However, according to the Times, the Prime Minister is in a better position than he appears because “Conservatives who reject the text in its current form are faced with a choice: support a text that they believe will not work. “, or vote with Labor to guarantee the death” of the project.
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Rishi Sunak assured on Monday that he was “talking to everyone”. [ses] Colleagues “. “I know everyone is unhappy – I am unhappy with the situation – and I want to see an end to the legal merry-go-round,” he told reporters during a visit to Essex, showing his determination to make this project a success. Announced in April 2022 under Boris Johnson, this was never implemented. A first plane was blocked at the last minute by a European court decision, then the British courts up to the Supreme Court declared the project illegal.
To save the project, the government signed a new contract with Rwanda. It is supported by this new draft law, which defines Rwanda as a safe third country and prevents the return of migrants to their countries of origin. It also proposes that certain provisions of UK human rights law should not apply to evictions in order to restrict legal recourse.
Almost 30,000 migrants crossed the English Channel illegally on small boats in 2023, a sharp decline compared to the record in 2022 (45,000). Five migrants died this weekend while trying to reach a boat at sea in freezing water. French authorities say 12 migrants died last year while attempting to cross the English Channel, one of the world's busiest straits.