Good news for four months, then inflation catches up with us. All indicators are rising in December after an already very difficult 2023.
• Also read: Do your grocery shopping backwards
• Also read: Hard, hard, the life of a consumer
With inflation at 4% in Quebec and 3.4% in Canada, the numbers for December are “not reassuring,” said Sylvain Charlebois on Tuesday morning, citing new data from Statistics Canada.
Meanwhile, the expert adds, major grocers are reducing their discounts.
Canada ended 2023 with a 3.9% increase in the cost of living, compared to 4.5% in Quebec. That's the worst inflation in 40 years if you exclude 2022, which resulted in an increase of 6.8%.
Main culprit in 2023: housing. At 28.5%, the cost of a mortgage has never risen so quickly in the history of Statistics Canada.
The other way to look at it, adds David Dupuis, “is that things have been going really well for four months and that 3.9% is not 6.8%.”
The economics teacher at the University of Sherbrooke cites the prices of clothing, goods and services as encouraging signs.
“But it is certain that food and housing prices are driving up the average,” admits the former Bank of Canada economist, who remains positive.
Returning to food, prices in Canada rose another 7.5% in 2023. That's about half as high as 2022.
“The main thing that is hurting in grocery stores at the moment is the increase in fruit and vegetables,” observes Sylvain Charlebois.
He doesn't budge: the December data are surprising and worrying, “they break the calming dynamic of the last few months.”
David Dupuis, on the other hand, finds it “calming in context.”
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Three major parts of our expenses
The booming price
+2.6% in 2022 and +28.5% in 2023 for the mortgage
A small increase in mortgage interest costs of 2.6% in 2022, then the boom comes in 2023. We just finished the year at 28.5%, the highest increase on record. We're not talking about a $200 shopping basket, we're talking about loans of $200,000, $300,000, $400,000 or more. No wonder some are talking about a coming “mortgage bomb.” When the mortgage goes from $1,500 to $2,000 a month, you feel it.
The price that makes us swoon
+9.8% in 2022 and 7.8% in 2023 for supermarket food
So it will never stop? Strong price increases have been observed in the grocery store every month for 30 months. The record in Quebec? 11.4% in November 2022, just above the 11.3% in January 2023. Last month we rose to 5.7%. It's still huge: The pack of 12 eggs that we paid $1.99 for with a discount less than 24 months ago is now $3.99. Who wants to add products to the list?
Ten food categories whose prices increased significantly in 2023
Juice +17.5%
Fruit preserves and fruit preparations +13.2%
Cookies and crackers +12.6%
Frozen and dried vegetables +11.4%
butter +10.9%
Cooking fats and oils +10.8%
Fresh or frozen beef +10.6%
Sugar and confectionery +9.3%
Canned vegetables and vegetable preparations +8.8%
Ice cream and related products +8.4%
The price that excites us
+28.5% in 2022 and -7.6% in 2023 for gasoline
Canada as a whole just had a good year when it comes to gasoline prices: -7.6%. In 2022 the increase was 28.5%. In Quebec last month: +3.6%. But be careful: oil companies and their gas stations will increase their prices this summer, as they do every year, because of the holidays. Whoever has red cans should fill them!
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