Published on January 17, 2024 at 9:59 p.m.
Updated January 17, 2024 at 10:00 p.m.
The true face of winter, here it is. Forecast.
In summary:
The first part of winter is characterized by mildness.
A paradigm shift is expected in Quebec for the rest of the winter;
The more persistent cold should appear in February.
Two winters
Naturally, the second part of winter is colder than the first. This year, the first 45 days of the season in Montreal were particularly mild. In fact, the metropolis recorded a positive anomaly of 4°C with an average of -1.9°C. According to the models, temperatures are likely to be close to normal in the second half. Overall, winter 2023-2024 would be mild, in line with our seasonal forecast.
Vertebrae present
Meteorologists expect that conditions would generally be favorable for cold spells in Quebec. In fact, the polar vortex should become more pronounced. Models suggest it would be present on this side of the globe, making sporadic cold snaps possible. However, note that temperatures would not be extreme even if the mercury occasionally dips below seasonal norms. Since the conditions are much more wintery during this time, lovers of outdoor activities get their money's worth. Is Quebec about to lose its winter? It doesn't seem.
cold outbreaks
The second part of winter this year lasts from January 15th to February 29th. So it's the meteorological season and not the astronomical one. Spring begins in Quebec on March 1st. In the meantime, there could be further severe cold snaps in the province. In fact, an increase is defined by a sequence of at least three days with temperatures below -20°C in the south of the province and -30°C in the northern sectors. On average, five of these sequences are recorded in the last 45 days of the season. During the first half of winter, a minimum of -20 °C was not observed in southern Quebec, which is rare.
In collaboration with meteorologists André Monette, Bertin Ossonon and Réjean Ouimet.