Awards Circuit Column: Is Sandra Huller on her way to a double Oscar nomination and is 'The Holdovers' the dark horse for best picture?
The BAFTA film nominations this year were staggering with their inclusions (and exclusions) and also threw up a few surprises.
Always an interesting precursor to the Oscars, in recent years there has been less overlap between them, partly due to jury intervention in picking the nominees. That makes it more complicated to decipher what the BAFTAs mean for the entire awards landscape, since juries are only responsible for directing and acting races that feature the most shockers.
The Oscar nominations closed earlier this week, so there is no direct impact on voters; Instead, the BAFTA nominations merely serve as hints at what we'll see when the nominations are announced.
Here are five things we learned from the BAFTA nominations.
“Barbie” supporters don’t appear to be international voters.
“Barbie” ©Warner Bros./Courtesy Everett Collection
Much energy has been spent interpreting the results of the Golden Globes chosen by an international voting panel, where “Barbie” underperformed. It won only Original Song and the newly created Box Office category (no connection to any Academy Awards). At the same time, the meta-comedy won a respectable six trophies at Critics Choice, including original screenplay and a lot of technology. However, after being longlisted in 15 categories, the BAFTA only received five awards, including neither Best Film nor Best Director. It's not surprising that a movie about a toy doll doesn't resonate with international voters, and it's a sign that the constituency may not respond as enthusiastically as their domestic counterparts. More pessimistic observers might even think this represents a possible snub for Greta Gerwig, the first woman to make a billion-dollar film. Would this lead to a similar situation to when Ben Affleck missed Argo? Or is the fact that “Barbie” has made it so far impressive enough, as noted at this week’s Variety Awards Circuit podcast roundtable?
It's worth remembering another film that didn't do particularly well at the BAFTAs, missing out on Best Picture and Best Director – the best film of 2022: CODA. Even last year's Everything Everywhere All at Once managed to win seven Oscars after winning just a single BAFTA trophy for editing.
Look out for Jonathan Glazer and Justine Triet in the Best Director category, which helps Sandra Hülser.
Neon / A24
Leaving aside the omissions of Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”) and Greta Gerwig (“Barbie”), it’s even harder to parse the directing cast by guessing who the top two are voters. According to the rules, the two best directors, regardless of gender, are automatically nominated, with the rest decided by a jury. The safe assumption is that Nolan was among those for “Oppenheimer,” but who is alongside him is up for debate.
I am most fascinated by the contributions of Jonathan Glazer for “The Zone of Interest” and Justine Triet, who skillfully expresses the strength of “Anatomy of a Fall” in the awards race. In conversations with awards strategists and voters, many believe both international filmmakers could be among the Oscar-nominated directors. But who they would replace is confusing. Could it be one of the three snubbed authors? Possibly.
Interestingly, the mention of both roles could be the biggest clue that actress Sandra Hülser, who stars in both “Anatomy” and “Zone,” could be on her way to historic dual actress nominations for her stunning performances. It would be the first time an actor has been double-nominated for two non-English-language performances.
And as for Bradley Cooper's inclusion in Maestro, the multi-hyphenate was one of the director nominees at the CCA, Golden Globes and now BAFTA, alongside DGA. Is it safer than the online discourse predicts? Under no circumstances should he be counted out.
Lily Gladstone's Best Actress snub represents a significant hurdle to overcome.
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Lily Gladstone's Oscar campaign was dealt a major blow with her BAFTA blowjob for Killers of the Flower Moon, as her closest rival, Poor Things' Emma Stone, won recognition. Gladstone won the Golden Globe in the Actress (Drama) category, while Stone won the Actress (Comedy) award. Additionally, Stone won the Lead Actress award at Critics Choice, highlighting a potentially close race between the two critically acclaimed actors.
With Gladstone eliminated from BAFTA, only the SAG Awards remain as the last chance to gather enough momentum to win the category. Since the jury methods were introduced, the best actress race has been the most upended by the changes. In 2020, BAFTA only nominated two of the Oscar actresses – Vanessa Kirby (“Pieces of a Woman”) and eventual BAFTA and Oscar winner Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”). If Carey Mulligan hadn't been rejected from BAFTA for Promising Young Woman, would she have built on her CCA win and won the Oscar? The world may never know.
In 2021, none of the Oscar nominees were nominated for best actress, leaving Oscar voters to their own devices and awarding the award to Jessica Chastain for “The Eyes of Tammy Faye,” the only modern-era winner to achieve it without a BAFTA (if the film was eligible).
Gladstone's snub is frustrating because it's fair to assume she was among the six voters who received the most votes, and the jury chose three others in her place. According to BAFTA rules, the top three vote-getters in the acting categories are nominated, while the jury selects the other three.
Even if Gladstone manages to win SAG, the BAFTA Awards will be an opportunity for Stone to continue her momentum unless two-time nominee Sandra Hülser manages to secure a win, which is possible considering how well “Anatomy of a Fall” did with the group.
“The Holdovers” is the dark contender for best picture that no one has fully recognized yet.
Courtesy of Focus Features
Alexander Payne's heartfelt drama has flown under the radar since his Telluride Film Festival debut as a nominee. Industry experts and journalists are focusing on “Barbie,” “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Oppenheimer” and “Poor Things.” The film received seven notable nominations from the British voting community, including one of the top five films to win Best Film. With two acting frontrunners, Paul Giamatti and Da'Vine Joy Randolph, and a serious original screenplay contender, how could stirring up excitement in the race to the top not be considered an option? That could also benefit breakout star Dominic Sessa, whose BAFTA nomination could signal he's on the path to recognition.
“Oppenheimer” Everett Collection
In case you don't believe it, “Oppenheimer” is the one to beat.
The only film to have been nominated at every major guild and television ceremony (so far) is “Oppenheimer.” Christopher Nolan's biographical drama topped the BAFTA rankings with 13 nominations, nearly reaching its maximum initial 15 longlist mentions. The only categories missing were visual special effects (which didn't make the Oscar Bakeoff list) and casting (not an Oscar category). It could reach the same top number in Tuesday's Oscar nominations.