“Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Oppenheimer,” “Poor Things,” “Barbie,” and “The Zone of Interest.”
Apple TV+; Universal Images; Searchlight Pictures, Jaap Buitendijk/Warner Bos./Courtesy Everett Collection; A24
PLEASE NOTE: This prediction, put together by Scott Feinberg, managing editor of awards show coverage at , reflects Scott's best attempt at predicting the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, rather than his personal preferences. He arrives at these predictions by relying on conversations with voters and other industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results from pre-Oscars awards shows, and the history of the Oscars themselves. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.
* * *
best picture
Expected nominations
1. Oppenheimer (Universal)
2. Barbie (Warner Bros.)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple)
4. The Leftovers (Focus)
5. The Interest Zone (A24)
6. Poor Things (Searchlight)
7. Maestro (Netflix)
8. Past Lives (A24)
9. Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)
10. American Fiction (Amazon/MGM)
Change
Saltburn (Amazon/MGM)
Possible surprise
Rustin (Netflix)
Should have been a contenda
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)
Best Director
Expected nominations
1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
2. Greta Gerwig (Barbie) – Podcast
3. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon) – Podcast
4. Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)
5. Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
Change
Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
Possible surprise
Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
Should have been a contenda
Todd Haynes (May December) – Podcast
Best actor
Expected nominations
1. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) – Podcast
2. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
3. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
5. Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Change
Jeffrey Wright (American fiction)
Possible surprise
Barry Keoghan (Saltburn)
Should have been a contenda
Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario) – Podcast
Best Actress
Expected nominations
1. Emma Stone (Poor Things) – Podcast
2. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
3. Carey Mulligan (Maestro) – Podcast
4. Margot Robbie (Barbie) – Podcast
5. Sandra Hülser (Anatomy of a Fall)
Change
Annette Bening (Nyad)
Possible surprise
Greta Lee (Past Lives)
Should have been a contenda
Helen Mirren (Golda) – Podcast
Best supporting actor
Expected nominations
1. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
2. Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
3. Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) – Podcast
4. Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) – Podcast
5. Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
Change
Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) – Podcast
Possible surprise
Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)
Should have been a contenda
Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry)
The best supporting actress
Expected nominations
1. Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
2. Jodie Foster (Nyad) – Podcast
3. Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) – Podcast
4. Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) – Podcast
5. Sandra Hülser (The Zone of Interest)
Change
Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) – Podcast
Possible surprise
Julianne Moore (May December) – Podcast
Should have been a contenda
Penélope Cruz (Ferrari) – Podcast
Best Adapted Screenplay
Expected nominations
1. Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
2. Barbie (Noah Baumbach & Greta Gerwig) – Podcast (Gerwig)
3. Poor Things (Tony McNamara)
4. The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)
5. American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)
Change
Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth & Martin Scorsese) – Podcastro (Scorsese)
Possible surprise
We're All Strangers (Andrew Haigh)
Should have been a contenda
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Dave Callaham, Phil Lord & Chris Miller)
Best Original Screenplay
Expected nominations
1. The Leftovers (David Hemingson)
2. Past Lives (Celine Song)
3. Anatomy of a Fall (Arthur Harari & Justine Triet)
4. Maestro (Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer)
5. Saltburn (Emerald Fennell)
Change
Rustin (Dustin Lance Black & Julian Breece)
Possible surprise
May December (Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik)
Should have been a contenda
Air (Alex Convery)
Best International Feature
Expected nominations
1. The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
2. Society of Snow (Spain)
3. Fallen Leaves (Finland)
4. The Teacher's Lounge (Germany)
5. 20 days in Mariupol (Ukraine)
Change
The Taste of Things (France)
Possible surprise
Four daughters (Tunisia)
Should have been a contenda
Anatomy of a fall (France)
Best Documentary
Expected nominations
1. American Symphony (Netflix) – Podcast (Matthew Heineman)
2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (Apple) – Podcast (Davis Guggenheim)
3. Beyond Utopia (Roadside)
4. 20 days in Mariupol (PBS)
5. 32 Sounds (Abramorama)
Change
The Eternal Memory (MTV)
Possible surprise
Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of the Midnight Cowboy (Kino Lorber/Zeitgeist)
Should have been a contenda
Kokomo City (Magnolia)
Best Animated Feature
Expected nominations
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)
2. The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)
3. Nimona (Netflix)
4. Elemental (Pixar) – Podcast (Pete Docter)
5. Suzume (Crunchyroll/Sony)
Change
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix)
Possible surprise
Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibbertia (GKIDS)
Should have been a contenda
Robot Dreams (Neon)
Best camera
Expected nominations
1. Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Rodrigo Prieto)
3. Poor Things (Robbie Ryan)
4. Maestro (Matthew Libatique)
5. The Zone of Interest (Lukasz Zal)
Change
Barbie (Rodrigo Prieto)
Possible surprise
El Conde (Edward Lachman)
Should have been a contenda
The Murderer (Erik Messerschmidt)
Best costume design
Expected nominations
1. Barbie (Jacqueline Durran)
2. Poor Things (Holly Waddington)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Jacqueline West)
4. Napoleon (David Crossman & Janty Yates)
5. The Little Mermaid (Colleen Atwood)
Change
Maestro (Mark Bridges)
Possible surprise
Oppenheimer (Ellen Mirojnick)
Should have been a contenda
Priscilla (Stacey Battat)
Best film editing
Expected nominations
1. Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame)
2. Poor Things (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Schoonmaker)
4. The Holdovers (Kevin Tent)
5. The Zone of Interest (Paul Watts)
Change
Ferrari (Pietro Scalia)
Possible surprise
The Murderer (Kirk Baxter)
Should have been a contenda
Past Lives (Keith Fraase)
Best makeup and hair styling
Expected nominations
1. Maestro (Kay Georgiou, Sian Grigg, Kazu Hiro and Lori McCoy-Bell)
2. Poor Things (Mark Couler, Nadia Stacey and Josh Weston)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Kay Georgiou & Thomas Nellen)
4. Napoleon (Jana Carboni & Francesco Pegoretti)
5. Oppenheimer (Luisa Abel, Jason Hamer, Jaime Leigh McIntosh & Ahou Mofid)
Change
Society of Snow (Ana López-Puigcerver, Belén López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé)
Possible surprise
Golda (Suzi Battersby, Ashra Kelly-Blue & Karen Hartley Thomas)
Should have been a contenda
Barbie (Ivana Primorac)
Best Original Score
Expected nominations
1. Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson)
3. Poor Things (Jerskin Fendrix)
4. Barbie (Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt) – Podcast (Ronson)
5. The Zone of Interest (Mica Levi)
Change
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Daniel Pemberton)
Possible surprise
The Leftovers (Mark Orton)
Should have been a contenda
Origin (Kris Bowers)
Best Original Song
Expected nominations
1. “What Was I Created For?” (Barbie), Billie Eilish & Finneas – Podcasts (1 and 2)
2. “I'm Just Ken” (Barbie), Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt – Podcast (Ronson)
3. “Road to Freedom” (Rustin), Lenny Kravitz – Podcast
4. “Meet in the Middle” by Flora and Son, John Carney, Gary Clark and Eve Hewson
5. “The Fire Inside” (Flamin' Hot), Diane Warren – Podcast
Change
“It Never Went Away” (American Symphony), Jon Batiste & Dan Wilson
Possible surprise
“Can't Catch Me Now” (The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes), Dan Nigro & Olivia Rodrigo – Podcast (Rodrigo)
Should have been a contenda
“Better Place” (Trolls Band Together), Amy Allen, Karl Schuster and Justin Timberlake – Podcast (Timberlake)
Best production design
Expected nominations
1. Barbie (Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer)
2. Oppenheimer (Ruth De Jong & Claire Kaufman)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Jack Fisk & Adam Willis)
4. Poor Things (Shona Heath, James Price & Szusza Mihalek)
5. The Zone of Interest (Joanna Kus, Chris Oddy & Katarzyna Sikora)
Change
Maestro (Rena DeAngelo & Kevin Thompson)
Possible surprise
Saltburn (Suzie Davis & Charlotte Diricks)
Should have been a contenda
Society of Snow (Alain Bainée & Angela Nahum)
Best sound
Expected nominations
1. Oppenheimer (Willie Burton, Richard King, Kevin O'Connell and Gary A. Rizzo)
2. Maestro (Richard King, Steve Morrow, Tom Ozanich, Jason Ruder and Dean Zupancic)
3. Ferrari (Tony Lamberti, Lee Orloff, Andy Nelson and Bernard Weiser)
4. The Zone of Interest (Johnnie Burn)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (John Pritchett, Philip Stockton and Mark Ulano)
Change
Barbie (Dan Kenyon, Ai-Ling Lee, Kevin O'Connell and Nina Rice)
Possible surprise
The Killer (Ren Klyce, Drew Kunin, Jeremy Molod and Stephen Urata)
Should have been a contenda
The Color Purple (Richard Bullock, Paul Massey, Steve Morrow, Julian Slater and Renée Tondelli)
Best visual effects
Expected nominations
1. Poor Things (Simon Hughes)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Theo Bialek, Stephanie Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot & Guy Williams)
3. The Creator (Jonathan Bullock, Charmaine Chan, Ian Comley and Jay Cooper)
4. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Part One (Neil Corbould, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Alex Wuttke)
5. Society of Snow (Félix Bergés, Pau Costa & Laura Pedro)
Change
Napoleon (Henry Badgett, Neil Corbould, Charley Henley and Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet)
Possible surprise
Godzilla: Minus One (Kosuke Taguchi & Takashi Yamazaki)
Should have been a contenda
Oppenheimer (Mike Chambers, Dave Drzewiecki, Scot Tisher, Andrew Jackson & Giacomo Mineo)
Best Animated Short Film
Expected nominations
1. Once Upon a Time in the Studio (Disney)
2. Wild Summoning
3. The war is over! Inspired by the music of John & Yoko
4. Ninety-five senses
5. Boom
Best documentary short film
Expected nominations
1. The ABCs of Book Banning (MTV) – Podcast (Sheila Nevins)
2. Camp Courage (Netflix)
3. Decisive Vote (The New Yorker)
4. The Last Repair Shop (LA Times/Searchlight)
5. Oasis (New York Times Op Docs)
Best Live Action Short Film
Expected nominations
1. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (Netflix)
2. Strange Way of Life (Sony Classics) – Podcast (Pedro Almodóvar)
3. The Anne Frank Gift Shop (Reboot)
4. Yellow (MUBI)
5. The After (Netflix) – Podcast (David Oyelowo)