Former United States President Donald Trump leaves his Trump Tower building to go to the federal court in Manhattan to hear an author's libel lawsuit against him, January 22, 2024 (AFP / Charly TRIBALLEAU)
Donald Trump is holding a campaign meeting on Monday evening in the state of New Hampshire, where the Republican primaries take place on Tuesday. His only competitor, Nikki Haley, is trying to block the ex-president's path after Florida Governor Ron DeSantis unexpectedly resigned.
Like last week, the Republican Party's all-time favorite shuttled on Monday between this small northeastern state and the New York court that he uses as an election platform: he was preparing to testify in the libel trial brought against him by the author E. Jean Carroll , who accused him of rape and had him convicted of sexual assault in civil court in 2023.
But a juror who may have Covid forced the judge to postpone the hearing until Wednesday, a day after the New Hampshire primary.
With a lead of almost 20 points, these are “good polls in New Hampshire. +Sparrow Brains+ is down, I'm up,” Donald Trump launched on his Truth Social network, insulting Nikki Haley, his former UN ambassador and former governor of South Carolina.
This weekend he took the liberty of calling her “not tough enough (…), not smart enough (…) and not respected enough.”
– “Tsunami” –
“I'm all for Trump,” Tony Ferrantello, a 72-year-old architect who expects a “tidal wave” on Tuesday, told AFP.
Denyne Sanville, a 59-year-old entrepreneur from neighboring Massachusetts, also says she “doesn't really like (Nikki Haley) because she seems close to people who have a lot of money and think highly of (other people).”
The former president has a final meeting to hold at around 9pm in Laconia (Tuesday, 0200 GMT) in New Hampshire after his other rival, Mr DeSantis, threw in the towel on Sunday by running for president in the November election had put behind him.
Florida's conservative governor came in second in Iowa on Jan. 15, but was credited with only 6% of voting intentions in New Hampshire.
Now alone on the track against Donald Trump, Nikki Haley is giving it her all after a disappointing third place in Iowa, which the New York businessman won comfortably.
No candidate has ever managed to win the Republican nomination after winning these first two states.
Unless Ms. Haley can prevail, the path appears to be clear for Republicans to nominate Mr. Trump this summer to face, barring any surprises, Democratic President Joe Biden.
The latter will campaign on the issue of abortion with his Vice President Kamala Harris on Tuesday in Virginia.
Nikki Haley, candidate in the Republican primary for the US presidential election in November, during a campaign trip to Manchester, New Hampshire, USA, January 22, 2024 (AFP / Joseph Prezioso)
Ms. Haley, trying to appeal to moderate Republicans and independent voters — who are allowed to vote in the primaries of both Republican and Democratic parties without being affiliated with them — is returning the blow against the 77-year-old Mr. Trump.
“He's just not at the same level as he was in 2016,” she attacked on CBS, judging the former president as “degenerate” and at risk of causing “chaos.”
But it won't be easy for her.
– “It’s nice to have Haley” –
Chronology of the most important events in the run-up to the American presidential election on November 5, 2024 (AFP / Jonathan WALTER)
Before Mr. DeSantis withdrew, she trailed Mr. Trump by at least 15 points in the RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight polling averages. The recent good momentum from which it benefited appears to have waned.
However, a good performance cannot be ruled out, which would put Ms. Haley in a good position for the next February 24 primary in South Carolina, which she chaired.
“I think it would be great to have Nikki Haley as president,” Madison Gillis, 18, who will vote for the first time on Tuesday when the Republican has “her chance,” told AFP.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis for the Republican primary nomination during a campaign rally in Hampton, New Hampshire on January 17, 2024 (AFP / Joseph Prezioso)
New Hampshire represents just 22 delegates out of a total of 1,215 who will nominate the Republican candidate at their convention in July in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
But compared to more conservative states, New Hampshire provides a better indication of possible success in national and later primaries.
In particular, “Super Tuesday” on March 5th, with 874 delegates at stake and three-quarters of the number of delegates needed for the nomination. Donald Trump's supporters assume that he will cross this crucial threshold by March or April at the latest.
Because the former president wants to act quickly given the judicial clock: two criminal cases will be opened against him in March, including one over his attempts to overturn the results of the November 2020 presidential election. He, too, is eyeing the Feb. 8 deadline when the U.S. Supreme Court must begin reviewing his ineligibility case in Colorado.