SEOUL, South Korea — Is Kim Jong Un about to lead North Korea into war?
For decades, the reclusive state has declared that its goal is peaceful reunification with its “compatriots” in South Korea. Now Kim has officially abandoned that goal, portraying his neighbors as the enemy while ramping up his nuclear threats and tests – and sounding the alarm on whether the dictator will do so as the world prepares for wars in Ukraine and the Middle East focused, possibly already ready to start another conflict.
While threats and angry rhetoric from North Korea, which was led before him by Kim's grandfather and father, are nothing new, two renowned American analysts say Kim's recent moves go beyond the “typical bluster” and suggest he is preparing for an attack South Korea could be preparing to become a US treaty ally.
“We believe that Kim Jong Un, like his grandfather, made the strategic decision to go to war in 1950,” wrote former State Department official Robert L. Carlin and nuclear scientist Siegfried Hecker in a widely read essay this month the US-based website 38 North.
This analysis, as well as Kim's subsequent actions, have sparked an intense debate about how concerned the world should be.
'A serious lack of imagination'
In a historic move, Kim said last week that communist North Korea would no longer seek reconciliation with the democratic South and that the North's constitution would be changed to eliminate the idea of shared statehood between the two countries, which has since technically passed The Korean War ended with an armistice in 1953.
At a meeting of his parliament on January 15, Kim said South Korea was the North's “main enemy” and that while nuclear-armed North Korea does not want war, “we have no intention of avoiding it.”
He also said he would abolish all government agencies responsible for promoting cooperation and reunification with the South and demolish the Unification Arch built outside Pyongyang in 2001 that would symbolize the goal of a unified Korean peninsula.
The situation on the Korean peninsula has been escalating since the beginning of the year.
State media reported on Jan. 1 Kim's promise to “destroy” South Korea if provoked. Days later, North Korea fired artillery shells near the disputed maritime border off South Korea's west coast, prompting the South to hold fire exercises of its own.
Last week, North Korea announced that it had flight-tested a solid-fuel medium-range missile with a hypersonic warhead in the first ballistic test of the year. The country also conducted another test of its nuclear-capable underwater attack drones in protest against joint military exercises between the United States, South Korea and Japan. Such tests constitute a violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions.
Tensions had already escalated throughout 2023, when North Korea launched its first spy satellite and solid-fuel intercontinental rocket.
In response to the Nov. 21 launch of a spy satellite, South Korea suspended part of a 2018 military deal aimed at easing tensions between the two countries and resumed air surveillance near the border. North Korea then suspended the agreement entirely and restored border guard posts and other military measures.
North Korea satellite launch (KCNA via KNS/AFP – Getty Images)
North Korea also has close ties with China and has strengthened ties with Russia, where Kim held a summit with President Vladimir Putin last year on his first trip abroad since the Covid-19 pandemic. Last week, during a visit to Moscow by North Korea's foreign minister, Russia said North Korea was a “very important partner” and that the two countries were developing relations in all areas, including in “sensitive” areas.
The United States and its allies accuse North Korea of supplying Russia with missiles and artillery for its war in Ukraine, something both countries deny.
Carlin and Hecker argue that North Korea abandoned diplomacy with the U.S. in 2019 when Kim and then-President Donald Trump held a failed summit in Vietnam. Since then, talks over North Korea's nuclear and missile programs have stalled and North Korea has conducted a record series of weapons tests, developing more advanced, harder-to-detect missiles that could also potentially reach the U.S. territory of Guam, as well as South Korea and Japan, both of which carry thousands of American troops accommodate.
Washington says it is ready to negotiate with North Korea anywhere, at any time and without preconditions. But it also warns that any attack by North Korea on the US or its allies would provoke an “overwhelming” response and spell the end of Kim's regime.
The assumption that this threat will deter Kim from taking action is, according to Carlin and Hecker, a “fundamental misinterpretation of Kim's view of history and a serious lack of imagination” that could lead to “catastrophe.”
Obstacles to war
North Korea experts generally agree that the situation on the Korean peninsula is becoming increasingly dangerous and that Pyongyang has changed its approach in recent years, relying more on support from China and Russia as they challenge the United States on the world stage.
Meeting between Kim Putin and Russia (Vladimir Smirnov / AP file)
“There is a greater willingness to confront South Korea because there is a sense that it is protected,” said Scott Snyder, senior fellow in Korean studies and director of the U.S.-Korea policy program at the Council on Foreign Relations.
At the same time, South Korea's conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol, elected in 2022, has taken a tougher line toward North Korea than his predecessor.
“The two leaders are ending dialogue and are more willing to show their military might,” said Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.
However, most experts disagree with Carlin and Hecker that North Korea is close to starting a war. They say his provocations are still primarily aimed at persuading other countries to negotiate, and that Kim may be tailoring them to coincide with this year's elections in the United States and South Korea.
They say Kim may also be trying to shore up his regime amid instability at home, where the economy is struggling and there are reports of famine, as he spends heavily on weapons programs.
Kim “will continue to throw word bombs to maintain a high level of tension,” said former South Korean Defense Minister Shin Beom-chul. “But I believe that Kim Jong Un cannot follow his words with actions because his leadership will be severely damaged once he launches a serious military provocation and is suppressed by the South Korea-US alliance.”
North Korea fired a medium-range ballistic missile that flew over Japan on Oct. 4, Seoul and Tokyo said, a significant escalation as Pyongyang intensifies its record-breaking weapons test blitz. (Anthony Wallace/AFP via Getty Images file)
There is always the risk of an unintended conflict or a more limited attack, experts say, pointing to episodes such as this month's North Korean shelling.
“Things can quickly get out of control,” said Lami Kim, a professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu. “Shelling or minor provocations can be very dangerous.”
But when it comes to a deliberate war, there are a number of factors that stand in North Korea's way. Its conventional weapons are no match for South Korea's, and the North lacks the food and oil reserves it would need for such a conflict.
Most importantly, North Korea lacks the support of China and Russia, which prefer to maintain the status quo, Yang said.
The U.S. should exploit China's influence over North Korea, he said, “because extended deterrence between the U.S. and South Korea alone cannot control and stop North Korea's aggression.”
In South Korea, Kim's rhetoric has not impressed citizens like Margie Kim, who said it would be “suicidal” for him to attack the South.
“Kim Jong Un cannot be serious about his bluff about war against South Korea,” said Kim, a Seoul resident. “I’ve heard it over and over again, so I can’t take his threats seriously.”
Stella Kim reported from Seoul, South Korea, and Mithil Aggarwal reported from Hong Kong.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com