The Brewers and free agent first baseman Rhys Hoskins ESPN's Jeff Passan (X Link). Milwaukee adds one of the best remaining hitters on the open market.
Hoskins will receive a modified cushion contract after missing the entire 2023 season. At the end of spring training, he tore a cruciate ligament in his left knee while retreating to the outfield turf to field a chopper. Although he was able to take batting practice at the end of the season, he never fully made it back into the squad. Philadelphia suspected that Hoskins might have come off the injured list had they advanced to the World Series.
With the Phils just one game out of the Fall Classic, the torn ACL marked an unfortunate end to a productive tenure at Citizens Bank Park. Hoskins appeared to be a potential qualifying offer candidate at the start of the offseason. The Phils decided against the QO and said they would move Bryce Harper to first base permanently. That made it clear that after nearly a decade in the organization, Hoskins was headed elsewhere.
The Phillies initially selected him in the fifth round of the 2014 draft. Despite his modest draft stock, he took off in pro ball. He posted tremendous numbers in the minor leagues and made it to the major leagues in the second half of the 2017 season.
This outstanding production on the farm was a harbinger of strong numbers against MLB pitching. Hoskins hit a .259/.396/.618 clip with 18 home runs in his first 50 games. Even though he wasn't able to maintain this pace throughout the season, he was always in the middle of the field in Philadelphia.
Hoskins hit between 27 and 34 home runs in his four full seasons from 2018-22. He had a similar pace in the shortened season, hitting 10 long balls in 41 games. In addition, he posted a walk rate of over 10% in every year of his career. That power and patience give him a solid offense, even though he hasn't batted above .250 in a season since his rookie year.
Since 2018, Hoskins has a batting line of .241/.350/.483. He strikes out in about a quarter of his plate appearances. That's slightly higher than league average, but hardly unusual, especially for a player who hits based on his power. Hoskins has destroyed left-handed pitching with a .250/.399/.522 average in his career. His .240/.336/.482 slash against same-handed weapons isn't quite as impressive, but remains well above average.
This offense shapes the overall profile. Hoskins doesn't offer much as a baserunner. He has performed as a slightly below average defender throughout his career. His defense is unlikely to improve as he is in his 30s and recovering from a serious knee injury.
That's fine for the Brewers, who needed an offensive upgrade. Last season, Milwaukee ranked 17th in runs allowed, a below-average mark for a team that plays its home games at hitter-friendly American Family Field. As measured by park-adjusting WRC+, Milwaukee ranked 24th in total batting power. This was the worst of any playoff team.
First base was particularly problematic. Milwaukee received a dismal .231/.292/.389 performance from the bat's first position. This led to the Brew Crew not being advertised Rowdy Tellez. Milwaukee acquired a veteran Carlos Santana to stabilize first base for the stretch run. The Brewers have remained in contact with Santana this winter, but will instead take advantage of the opportunity for a more significant lineup upgrade.
The contract is in line with MLBTR's projection of two years and $36 million. Several priority rebound targets have received two-year, opt-out guarantees in recent offseasons. This is more attractive to the player, securing more security than he would have received on a straight one-year deal, while also allowing him to return to free agency after one season.
Hoskins' contract is almost equal to the two-year, $36 million deal Michael Conforto signed with the Giants last winter after missing the '22 season rehab due to shoulder surgery. Players like Josh Bell (two years, $33 million) and Lucas Giolito (two years, $38.5 million) signed similar deals after terrible finishes in their respective platform seasons. This contract structure isn't achievable for every bounceback candidate, but it's one that higher cap free agents of this type are increasingly able to secure.
There's more to come.