For decades, diplomats have tried to promote a solution that would allow Israelis and Palestinians to live together in two separate and sovereign states, a project whose prospects have been further dented by the war in Gaza.
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his opposition to the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state last Thursday, a recurring demand of American President Joe Biden.
Where did the idea come from?
The concept emerged in the 1930s, supported by Jews who settled in Palestine under the British mandate.
On this basis, the partition plan for Palestine set out in UN Resolution 181 was drawn up, which led to the creation of the State of Israel in 1948.
This partition plan and the creation of the State of Israel were rejected by the Palestinians and Arab countries and were the trigger for the Arab-Israeli War of 1948-1949. Israel emerges stronger with increased territory and the Palestinian state disappears before it even existed.
In 1964, the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) was founded with the aim of liberating all of Palestine.
The war against Arab countries in 1967 allowed Israel to take control of the Palestinian territories in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem and Gaza. According to international law, they remain occupied to this day and all settlements are illegal.
But successive Israeli governments encouraged their nationals to settle in the West Bank and east of Jerusalem.
Oslo's hope
Hopes for peace arose in 1993 when PLO leader Yasser Arafat shook hands with Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in front of American President Bill Clinton at the White House on September 13, 1993.
The Oslo Accords they advocate provide for a limited degree of Palestinian autonomy, with the ultimate goal of peaceful coexistence between the two peoples within yet-to-be-defined borders.
Radicals on both sides are angry. In 1995, a Jewish extremist murdered Rabin, setting the stage for decades of violence.
Discussions in 2013 brought the project back on the table. “Politically, there has been no effort since then to make it feasible,” said Xavier Guignard of the Paris-based think tank Noria Research.
What do managers think?
The Palestinian Authority, currently in the occupied West Bank, supports the two-state solution. President Mahmoud Abbas called for an international conference in September, calling it “the last opportunity to save the two-state solution.”
In Gaza, the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas, which won parliamentary elections in 2006 and then seized power in 2007, accepted the principle of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip for the first time in 2017.
But their ultimate goal remains the “liberation” of the entire territory of Palestine in 1948, that is, all of today's Israeli territory.
Benjamin Netanyahu has been a strict opponent of two states since the beginning of his political career.
What about public opinion?
According to surveys, the two-state solution has significantly lost popularity.
A Pew Research study conducted before the current war shows that the number of Israeli Jews supporting the project fell from 46% in 2013 to 32% in 2023.
A Gallup poll, also before the conflict began, showed a decline in support for the two-state solution in Gaza and the West Bank from 59% in 2012 to 24% last year.
Some Palestinians have talked about a one-state solution with equal rights for all, but the response remains weak.
What role does diplomacy play?
American and European officials, the United Nations and even China have recently brought the project back to the table.
The rejection of a two-state solution “as well as the denial of the right to a state for the Palestinian people are unacceptable,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Saturday.
For his part, Joe Biden mentioned “multiple types of two-state solutions” to open the spectrum of possibilities.
European Union diplomacy chief Josep Borrell said on Monday: “We want to create a two-state solution” to create the conditions for lasting peace in the region.
Does the current war weigh?
Hamas's unprecedented attack on October 7 left 1,140 people dead, according to an AFP count based on official Israeli figures.
In retaliation, Israel vowed to “destroy” the Islamist movement. According to the Hamas Ministry of Health, 25,295 people were killed in Israeli military operations in the Palestinian territory.
The two-state solution appears to remain a mantra for the international community and a fiction for Palestinians and Israelis.