Tuesday's election suggests that Donald Trump is likely to win the Republican nomination, but it also reveals his weaknesses heading into the general election.
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If you like the excitement of campaigns, I might spoil the fun a little by telling you this: The race for the Republican nomination is essentially over.
On the other hand, the general election is already well underway, and what we saw in Iowa and New Hampshire is far from proof that a Trump victory in November is certain.
Overwhelming victory?
Trump's victory in New Hampshire, where a large portion of those who voted for his opponent were not Republicans, confirms what we already knew: Since only Republicans will have the vote in most other primary states, Nikki Haley's chances of winning are close low zero.
On the other hand, Trump's victories were not triumphant. The votes for the other candidates – almost half of the total – were initially votes against him. He doesn't control the entire Republican electorate.
Polls show those who support Trump are primarily those who believe his “big lie” about the 2020 election and identify more with the MAGA movement than the traditional Republican Party. To win in November, Trump will need to mobilize voters far beyond these excluded groups.
What will Nikki Haley do?
The impact of the primary on the general election will depend in part on what the former South Carolina governor does in the coming weeks.
If she continues to attack Trump, as she has been hesitant to do for months, it won't be enough to turn the tide, but it could convince some Republicans that it's possible to oppose Trump without compromising the principles of one Opposition leaves.
Haley's persistence and her ability to mobilize resistance against him clearly bring out the worst traits in Trump's temperament, perhaps because she is a visible minority woman.
Some lessons
It was enough to see Trump's pathetic victory speech in New Hampshire to understand that with every day that Haley stays in the race, Trump risks losing control and alienating a portion of the electorate he will need in November .
Trump's inability to resort to anything other than lies and threats against his opponent may be seen as a strength in the eyes of his die-hard supporters, but they are signs of weakness that will not be lost on Democrats.
Polls in New Hampshire also show that support for Nikki Haley is based less on the candidate's attractiveness and more on opposition to Trump.
Part of the recent support for Trump is because many voters have a nostalgic view of the best aspects of his time in office. If they take stock, as New Hampshire voters just did, of what Trump has increasingly become since his Mar-A-Lago exile – a temperamental autocrat motivated by a desire for revenge against his critics – they could change things.