I found the most annoying theme of these playoffs was how all of these teams ignored Lamar Jackson when he could have been had last offseason. But no one signed him an offer, and don't they feel stupid now?
Except… the Baltimore Ravens made it clear they would match any offer, and other teams weren't interested in doing a lot of math and contract mumbo-jumbo just to make life easier for the Ravens. Jackson was never available.
But I'd rather sign up for a three-part documentary about it than listen to people screaming about whether Brock Purdy is among the elite. Or an overrated game manager.
He is a second-year player who was drafted as the last player to get the starting job and exercise it. Purdy has good mechanics, knows his system well and knows how to get the ball to good spots for his talented teammates. Period. Purdy didn't play well against the Green Bay Packers last week, but he didn't turn the ball over and outplayed Jordan Love with some crucial throws on his game-winning final drive in the fourth quarter.
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Brock Purdy with a lead and other 49ers problems and solutions
Purdy doesn't throw a wet ball well, but Peyton Manning and Drew Brees weren't good at it either. I'm not comparing these three…unless I'm saying that Purdy doesn't have to deal with a wet ball this postseason and can win a Super Bowl just like them.
Last week: 2-2 against the spread, 1-1 on best bets.
Postseason record: 5-5 against the spread, 2-2 on best bets.
Record in the regular season: 135-130-7 against the spread, 48-41-1 at best bets.
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked at the time of selection. Click here for live odds.
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What separates the Bills from the Chiefs (it's not just Patrick Mahomes): Sando's pick six
Well, we bet against Patrick Mahomes again last week… I don't know if that's the definition of insanity or stupidity. Even though he's arguably the best quarterback of all time, we lost because the already thin Buffalo Bills kept dropping linebackers like flies. There is also a mysterious fake punt, a missed throw by Josh Allen into the end zone, a drop by Stefon Diggs and a missed field goal.
Although the Chiefs won by three points, they likely lost Pro Bowl guard Joe Thuney to a pectoral injury. He didn't practice on Wednesday or Thursday and is questionable for Sunday, a big loss against a stout Ravens defense. Despite not recording a sack in their divisional-round win over the Houston Texans, the Ravens pressured CJ Stroud on 48.6 percent of his dropbacks last week, the second-highest rate of any team in a game this postseason.
The Ravens have a much more complete team than the Chiefs and are at home. You may not realize how complete they are – these Ravens and the 2007 New England Patriots are the only teams in NFL history with a lead of over 100 points over playoff teams. Jackson threw two touchdowns and ran for two last week, and the Chiefs had a tough time getting rid of Allen in the divisional round.
The Chiefs won't be able to contain Lamar Jackson in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday. (Tommy Gilligan/USA Today)
The Chiefs have a good secondary and should be able to shut down Zay Flowers. But tight end Mark Andrews is back, and although the Chiefs have allowed 6.4 yards per attempt on passes to tight ends (third-best in the NFL), the combination of Andrews and Isaiah Likely will be too tough.
The Chiefs' receivers, meanwhile, were disappointing — until Marquez Valdes-Scantling made two ridiculous catches last week. This is rarer than a lunar eclipse. Tight end Travis Kelce looked old and run-down until the Bills ran out of linebackers last week. Did we mention the Ravens have an extra day of rest this week?
So, yes, we'll face Mahomes again in the playoffs. The third time is the charm. If he makes it to the Super Bowl with this team this year, the AFC will never be able to stop him.
The choice: Ravens
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It's only right that the Ravens have to face the Chiefs to secure a trip to the Super Bowl
We've crunched some numbers for you, but in this case we're going with our gut feeling. When the 49ers didn't play well on offense or defense last week and still beat the Packers, we immediately thought the 49ers had just won the Super Bowl. They have the most talent of any team remaining and the weather won't be a factor the rest of the way.
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NFC title game key: Can the 49ers stop the run? Will the Lions' pass defense succeed?
The Lions are playing with a lot of confidence, but there are three problems:
First, the 49ers know how to play defense against Jared Goff, the hometown boy and former division rival. Goff has more touchdown passes against the 49ers than any opponent in his career (17), but he has lost five straight meetings and completed less than 60 percent of his passes in those five losses. (The Lions have a very good offensive line, but I think Nick Bosa and Chase Young bounce back and make Goff very uncomfortable.)
Second, the Lions love to use motion to manipulate defensive coverages, but the 49ers have allowed the NFL's third-lowest passer rating on pre-snap motion plays this season (79.3).
Third, the biggest weakness of the four remaining teams is the Lions' second division team. I'm not even sure the 49ers need Deebo Samuel this week, but he'll probably try to play on his bad shoulder.
I don't think this one will be close.
The choice: 49ers
Best bet: 49ers about Lions.
– TruMedia research courtesy of Jason Starrett.