Kyiv – A big hunt for a cargo flight with missiles, a game of espionage and the Russian checkmate with unprecedented cynicism: all this, according to several sources consulted by Repubblica, was the reason for the crash of the Il-76 plane in Belgorod.
The crisis caused by the plane crash revolves around two points Kyiv And Fly They stand firm: one is trying to hold on as best he can to contain the embarrassment, the other is trying to exploit the tragedy against Ukraine's Western partners. The first point is the organization of the prisoner exchange: Kiev's military secret services accuse Moscow of not having agreed on safe escape as has always been the case and of voluntarily putting its prisoners in danger. The Russians argue the opposite.
The second point is who or what was on board the plane. Kiev has always maintained that it was a transport of missiles and components for the ongoing attacks on the country Kharkiv, which has cost dozens of people their lives in the last few days alone. Instead, Moscow said 65 Russian prisoners, three escorts and six crew members should be exchanged.
On both counts, the Russians, the only ones in a position to do so since they had banned access to the disaster area and did not allow any international intervention or investigation, actually provided no evidence. Not even in the UN Security Council, where the Ukrainian representative was Kristina Gayovyshyn reiterated that Kiev had not been informed about the transport and warned that if confirmed, it would be the “first evidence of the use of human shields” to cover the transport of ammunition.
The crash would certainly get the Ukrainian president in big trouble Zelensky, if the killing was proven using Western weapon systems, as the Russians claimed, but also, informally, as the first Western findings confirmed. If this were the case, a humanitarian flight (prisoner exchange) would have been shot down on Russian territory and with Western help, which would have made new arms deliveries to Kiev increasingly difficult. The front of those hostile to support with weapons and ammunition capable of deeply hitting Russia would have a formidable argument to oppose. That is, the incident risks undermining the core of Ukraine's foreign policy these two years, as President Zelensky remains committed to explaining to the world the reasons why full military support for Kiev is essential.
Belgorod, the mystery of the crashed plane: between Moscow and Kiev exchange of accusations and contradictory theses without evidence
by our correspondent Paolo Brera, January 25, 2024
But the reconstruction that prevails is that of a mistake made by Kiev, which Moscow immediately exploited. Russian and Ukrainian mediators were working on the exchange as always: after a long five-month break, it would be the second in a few days. The formula was 192 of 192, i.e. the exchange of as many Russian and Ukrainian prisoners of war: It was supposed to have taken place on the afternoon of the 24th at the land border post, but something went wrong.
It is almost certainly true that, having agreed to the exchange organized by the mediators, Russia notified a quarter of an hour before departure through the established channels, from which it supposedly received confirmation of receipt. However, various military forces operate in Ukraine, some of which carry out clandestine special operations, which also use very advanced and valuable weapons such as Western surface-to-air systems, theoretically intended for the defense of cities from Russian air attacks. These forces do not directly depend on the General Staff and do not agree anything with the defense, only to maintain secrecy as much as possible.
These are forces capable of moving complex systems for hit-and-run operations: top-secret operations like those successfully completed last May, when the Ukrainians shot down four Russian military aircraft in a single day Bryansk. It was the worst day for the Russian Air Force since the end of World War II, it happened on Russian territory and probably with Western surface-to-air missiles, but no one batted an eyelid.
This time they may have repeated the operation by attacking one of the flying cargo planes in the Belgorod area, close to the border and in an area from where the missiles fired at Kharkiv depart almost daily. “A legitimate target,” is how the Ukrainian services define it, implying that they actually shot down the IL-76. But obviously everything changes if there were actually Ukrainian prisoners on board, ready to return home.
Here we enter the second cornerstone of this air tragedy. The Ukrainians repeatedly emphasize that if there was evidence of their presence on board, the Russians would not have waited a moment to present it: names, photos of the bodies, irrefutable evidence of a massacre from which they could reap great political dividends . Instead, they delivered six bodies to the Belgorod morgue, published some videos and photos of scraps with Ukrainian tattoos, and allowed the publication of lists of suspected passengers that contained gross errors. The presence of the 65 Ukrainian prisoners is neither obvious nor proven. There may actually have been weapons or ammunition on board. The Russians could have sent more flights over the “safe” air channel agreed upon for the exchange, and if the man shot down had actually had weapons on board, this would explain discrepancies such as the few bodies found and the decision to prevent access to emergency services.
Igor Moseichuk, Ukrainian investigative journalist and one of the founders of Azov, claims that Ukrainian forces were hunting in the area for flights used by the Russians to transport weapons and ammunition, and they received a tip about the IL-76 flight with cargo on board Rockets. But the Russians also had a clue: “Someone betrayed us and warned them that the Ukrainian armed forces were ready to shoot down the flight.” At that time, they brought our prisoners on board instead of weapons.” In any case, that is the political line of Ukraine now inconspicuous. The desire is to bring the case to the attic as quickly as possible, which remains scandalous – at least for – both at international and internal levels due to the controversy over the bad end of the “defenders” and a killing that will in any case wipe out a while – prisoner exchange. Wednesday would have been the icing on the cake for Zelensky's birthday celebrations, who canceled a series of appointments in which he would have highlighted the gift of the homecoming of heroes.
Now Kiev is focusing on contradictions. He calls for international investigations that will never be approved by Moscow, allowing an infinite number of theories to flourish. In doing so, he can rely on Russia to raise the usual cloud of suspicion over the whole affair, avoiding providing clear evidence and thereby leaving doubt that it has set a cynical trap for the Ukrainians: using their prisoners as human shields, and Then you blame the West for the “criminal” use of its “defensive weapons” on Russian territory.