Experts warned that the deaths of three US soldiers in a drone strike by Iranian-backed militants could further deepen the ongoing crisis in the Middle East.
A former CIA director called the weekend attack on the U.S. base a “dangerous escalation” of tensions already gripping the region following the Oct. 7 Hamas terror attack in southern Israel and Israel's subsequent attack on Gaza.
After warning that the US will “respond” to the attack, analysts say US President Joe Biden will be calculated in his retaliation, balancing between satisfying those at home who want to see a show of force and turning it away of a major conflict.
If the White House is not strong enough in its response, experts say Iran's proxies will remain unfazed and continue to carry out attacks. Too strong, and Biden risks plunging the Middle East into deeper conflict.
Further escalation, one expert warned, “would bring the Middle East to the brink of regional war,” while another said they “expect a serious escalation soon.”
But in doing so, Biden also runs the risk of playing the “optimal scenario” for Vladimir Putin, whose war in Ukraine would benefit greatly from a larger conflict.
Meanwhile, a British MP warned that the escalation in the volatile region was also affecting the UK, saying it could become a “necessity” for Britain to get involved.
“It is important that the British people understand this: this is an example of much of the new era of uncertainty that we have entered and for which we must prepare,” said former Defense Select Committee chairman and soldier Tobias Ellwood .
These fears go hand in hand with concerns that the wars in Europe and the Middle East could escalate into something even larger. Former US President Donald Trump warned on Sunday: “We are on the brink of World War III.”
The deaths of three US soldiers in a drone attack by Iranian-backed militants on the US base at Tower 22 in Jordan (pictured) risks further worsening the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, experts warn, and could lead to a wider conflict
“While we are still gathering the facts of this attack, we know that it was carried out by radical, Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq,” Biden said in a statement after the attack. “Make no mistake – we will hold all those responsible accountable at a time and in a manner of our choosing,” he warned.
At least 34 people were injured in Sunday's attack in northeastern Jordan near the Syrian border, according to a statement from U.S. Central Command.
According to the US military, the attack occurred at a base near the Syrian border.
The name of the base was not disclosed, but a person familiar with the matter identified it as Tower 22 in Jordan – a base that occupies a strategically important location in Jordan, at the northeasternmost point where the country's borders meet Syria and Iraq .
Iran's mission to the United Nations said in a statement on Monday that Tehran was not involved in the attack.
The attack came amid concerns that Israel's war against the Iran-backed Hamas terror group in Gaza could escalate into a larger conflict with Iran's proxies in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq.
According to the Pentagon, the armed forces of the United States and its allies in Iraq and Syria have been targeted since October 7 following the deadly Hamas terrorist attack in southern Israel that triggered the ongoing Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip than 150 attacks.
Washington has already carried out retaliatory strikes in both Iraq and Syria.
Former CIA Director John Brennan called the deadly attack a “dangerous escalation” in the Middle East amid the Israel-Hamas war.
“Given that three American service members were killed and over two dozen were injured, this is an attack of significant magnitude,” Brennan said on MSNBC's “Inside with Jen Psaki.”
“Whether it was one drone or multiple drones, they are drones that are loaded with explosives and then explode on impact.” “But that number of casualties suggested that it was a fairly large number,” he added.
The former CIA man also predicted that the attack would have “consequences.”
“As the White House has emphasized, Iran has cultivated relationships with a number of militias and extremist groups in Syria, Iraq and other areas to pressure regional adversaries as well as the United States,” Brennan said.
“So I think the big question for the White House is whether this is an Iran-backed group or whether we want the indirect attack, but either way, I think.” [there are] will have consequences.'
In a scathing attack on Biden, former US President Trump suggested that the attack on the Jordan base had brought the US to the brink of a third world war.
Trump wrote on Sunday: “This brazen attack on the United States is another terrible and tragic consequence of Joe Biden's weakness and capitulation.”
“This attack would NEVER have happened if I had been president, not even a chance – Just like the Iran-backed Hamas attack on Israel would never have happened, the war in Ukraine would never have happened and we would now have peace everywhere. ” World. Instead, we are on the brink of World War III.”
Former President Donald Trump believes a third world war is imminent as he blamed Joe Biden's “weakness and surrender” for the suicide drone strike that killed three US soldiers in Jordan on Saturday
Michael Butler, an associate professor of political science at Clark University in Massachusetts, said the attack was a “game changer” for the Biden administration's strategy in the Middle East, adding that he expected a “serious escalation” soon.
“The attack on Tower 22 is undoubtedly a turning point for the Biden administration’s deterrence policy,” Butler said.
“While the U.S. has attempted to balance reducing the capabilities of Iranian proxies without directly intervening in Iran itself, it is difficult to imagine that policy remaining viable now.”
“I assume that a serious escalation is imminent,” he added.
However, experts also warn that the US must strike the right balance in its response or risk bringing the Middle East “to the brink of regional war.”
“The challenge for those designing the U.S. response is to ensure it is significant enough to prevent further attacks on U.S. forces while not triggering another war in the region,” said N7’s Alex Plitsas -Middle East Program Initiative to Atlantic Council Think Tank.
“For this reason, the United States and its allies must hold adversaries accountable at lower levels of deterrence to prevent a ladder of escalation that would bring the Middle East to the brink of regional war,” he added.
Sir Hew Strachan, a professor of international relations at St. Andrews University, said Biden was “caught between his desire not to escalate the situation in the Middle East and domestic political pressure not to appear weak in an election year.”
He said, based on Biden's initial comments, he expected the U.S.'s initial response to be calculated and rash, but that the attack could not go unpunished.
“He cannot let the attack go unpunished, but he will do his best not to cause an escalation.” “Some kind of widespread and targeted response with drones and/or guided missiles is the obvious result,” the professor said.
Sir Strachan played down the possibility of Britain becoming involved in the conflict at this stage, saying the US, Britain and their ally Jordan did not want an escalation.
However, he added: “The problem for all three is that the desire not to escalate the situation does not preclude the other side's desire not to escalate the situation.”
As for what such a U.S. response might look like, Matthew Kroenig, senior director of the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, said targets could include “Iran's navy, its top leadership or even its nuclear program.”
He said Iran had been waging a “shadow war” against the U.S. in recent weeks and blamed America's “cautious” response, fearing escalation, for showing Iran it could “attack with impunity.”
“Deterrence works by convincing an adversary that the costs of attacking the United States and its allies and interests far outweigh any conceivable benefits,” he said, before calling on U.S. forces to “hit Iran hard.” .
“Washington could sink the Iranian navy, as then-President Ronald Reagan did in the 1980s,” he told the Atlantic Council.
“It could hit Iranian naval bases.” It could target Iran’s leadership, following in the footsteps of then-President Donald Trump’s assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. It could use this opportunity to weaken Iran's nuclear and missile programs – which definitely needs to be addressed soon.
Such actions, he said, “would convey to Iran that it completely miscalculated and that attacking the United States was a stupid decision that should not be repeated.”
The drone strike hit a US outpost in the northeast of the country called Tower 22 near the Syrian border, leaving at least 34 others injured
But the US response to the attacks, experts warn, also risks playing directly into the hands of another of its opponents: Vladimir Putin.
With the Russian president currently waging war in Ukraine, Moscow would benefit greatly from further distraction in the form of a major Middle East conflict, says Vlad Şutea, founder and senior analyst at threat group T-Intelligence.
Kiev has been provided with funds and military support by its Western allies since Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
However, that support has run into obstacles in recent months, with the attention of the US and its allies divided in the Red Sea due to Israel's ongoing fight against Hamas as well as attacks on ships belonging to Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebel group.
“Global geopolitical and war risks are at their highest level in recent years and tensions are escalating on all continents,” Mr Şutea told Web at the weekend.
“The current situation appears to be remarkably beneficial for Russia, diverting attention and resources from its ongoing war against Ukraine – as we are already seeing with Israel.”
“The optimal scenario for Putin involves coordinated moves by his allies toward their respective goals: China’s aggression against Taiwan, Iran’s full unleashing of its proxies in the Middle East, a resumption of the Korean War and a Venezuelan invasion of Guyana,” he said.
Meanwhile, British MP and former soldier Tobias Ellwood warned that an escalating conflict in the Middle East would also impact the UK.
Speaking to TalkTV, he said: It's worth simply stressing, and it's important that the British people understand this: this is an example of much of the new era of uncertainty that we have entered and are looking forward to need to prepare. That is why there has been so much debate about the size and composition of our armed forces.
“This concerns the UK, we need to be clear: this is not an action of our choice, it is a necessity because our economy is increasingly affected by instability in the Middle East,” he added.
“And of course, don’t forget that any price increases will benefit Iran.”