It has been claimed that the dramatic border standoff between Texas Governor and Joe Biden over illegal border crossings will “fan the flames of independence” in the Lone Star State.
Secession activists have announced a “surge” in support for their cause following a heated row between Greg Abbott and the US president over a barbed wire barrier along the border with Mexico.
Both sides have flexed their muscles and refused to concede, raising fears of a clash between state and federal forces.
Texas Nationalist Movement (TNM) leader Daniel Miller told that the flashpoint highlighted “the fractured relationship” between Austin and Washington, DC, adding that he sees secession as inevitable within 30 years hold.
But academics rejected the idea, saying it was legally impossible and the movement had little support.
Texas Nationalist Movement Chairman Daniel Miller said interest in Lone Star independence has “surged” amid a border dispute between Austin and Washington
The issue has gained traction in recent weeks after federal U.S. Border Patrol cut razor wire along the Texas-Mexico border, prompting the state to erect new fencing in defiance
Overall, according to a 2023 Axios-Ipsos poll, only one in five Americans support the idea of a “national divorce” between red and blue states, and even fewer support the idea of their state going it alone as an independent country
However, the issue appears to have greater support in southern and western states: According to a 2022 SurveyUSA poll, 60% of Texans support the idea of breaking away from other conservative states. However, this does not necessarily mean support for Texas independence
Joshua Blank, research director for the Texas Politics Project, said the current conflict would “certainly fan the flames” of independence among its current supporters, but doubted it would produce any converts to the cause.
This comes after the Supreme Court ruled last month that the U.S. Border Patrol can tear down a wire fence erected by the Texas National Guard along the border at Eagle Pass.
It handed a victory to the Biden administration, which had argued that the wire posed a danger to law enforcement and migrants.
Abbott responded by ordering new barbed wire to be laid, a move that does not appear to violate the Supreme Court's order, which says nothing about introducing new barriers.
The governor issued a statement of defiance, saying the Biden administration has “really, truly abdicated its responsibility to secure the border and enforce the laws.”
The rhetoric has ratcheted up from both sides, with some Texas Democrats urging the president to federalize the National Guard and take control from Abbott, while Rep. Brian Babin, R-Texas, said securing the border was a hill to climb that he was ready to die.
Miller, a sixth-generation Texan who works full-time as a technology consultant, said the conflict has sparked “a much larger discussion about whether or not Texas should stay in the union.”
“There has definitely been an increase.” [in support for Texit]”, added the 50-year-old. “The challenge so far has been getting the media to cover it in detail.
'But [the border row] “Not only draws attention to the support that already exists, but also puts it in a different context – since the state is at odds with the federal government.”
However, the extent to which the idea of Texas secession has gained traction among the electorate is hotly debated.
Republican Gov. Greg Abbott ordered the installation of miles of concertina wire in several areas of the Texas-Mexico border known to see high traffic for migrants
The federal government claims the wire fences threaten security and hinder rescue efforts, while the state claims they stop the flow of migrants
As migrant crossings have increased, Abbott has deployed federal law enforcement to the border and implemented his own deterrence mechanisms, which the Biden administration has fought against
The TNM did not provide any figures to support its claim that membership had increased in the wake of the border dispute.
Miller pointed to a 2022 SurveyUSA poll that found 60 percent of Texas adults supported the idea of peacefully becoming an independent country along with other conservative states in response to “political problems that some see in the United States could”.
The poll found a surprising demographic spread of those who supported the move: 54 percent of Democrats and 48 percent of black Texans supported the proposal.
But Blank, a public policy expert at the University of Texas at Austin, expressed concerns about the poll's reliability.
He said it did not ask a direct question about Texas seceding from the U.S. to form its own country and that no “selectively added components” were presented to respondents for consideration.
Instead, Blank pointed to a national Axio-Ipsos poll from March last year that showed one in five Americans supported a “national divorce” in which Republican-leaning and Democratic-leaning states would be split into separate countries.
The poll, conducted in response to House Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene's call to divide the Union into red and blue states, found that there was no majority support for the idea across all segments of the population surveyed, although this was the case among residents of the United States Southern and Western states were more likely to favor a split.
The results were not broken down by state.
Blank said there is a lack of reliable polling data because the idea of Texas leaving the union is “hypothetical.”
He claimed that most legal experts agreed that an 1869 Supreme Court ruling meant that a state leaving the Union in any way was unconstitutional.
The late Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia wrote, “If there was one constitutional question resolved by the Civil War, it was that there was no right to secede.”
Walter Buenger, a history professor at the University of Texas at Austin, also pointed out that Texas' nine-year tenure as an independent state from 1836 to 1845 was a “disaster” and that there was no reason why it should not happen again .
Not surprisingly, Miller vehemently disagrees with the view that Texas independence is just a pipe dream, arguing that secession is not expressly prohibited in the Constitution.
He also bristled at Buenger's assertion that it had little support in the business community, whose support would be crucial if the Lone Star State went it alone.
In keeping with the populist contempt for science, Miller dismissed the views of “those desiccated professors who are no better on this particular issue than third-rate associate professors at any community college.”
He advised the historian to “stay in his lane.”
Texas nationalists envision an independent state with its own military and possibly its own currency. Pictured: the Texas State Capitol in downtown Austin
Migrants seeking asylum in the U.S. gather near the fence at the U.S.-Mexico border as they wait to be processed by U.S. Border Patrol in El Paso, Texas
Texas National Guard soldiers patrol the Rio Grande near Shelby Park on Friday
The TNM leader also cited David Roberts, CEO of telecommunications company ProcureLogix, as an example of support for Texas independence within the business community.
Roberts, who also owns Defiance Press & Publishing and Comanche Rose Cattle Company, told that while immigration and the border are a major argument for secessionists, he believes a free state would prosper economically.
He noted that Texas has the eighth largest economy in the world, valued by the IMF at over $2.4 trillion, and is a net contributor to the U.S. economy.
Roberts portrayed an independent Texas as a refuge from federal taxes and regulation, which would make it “one of the most, if not the most, attractive location for business.”
But Blank thinks that's unrealistic.
He said secession advocates don't like to think about the tradeoffs: how federal money that would pay for public education, transportation or border security would be replaced.
“Essentially the belief is that you can have the same government you have now, but just give up the relationship with the federal government, stop paying federal taxes and just live in Texas,” Blank said. “That is simply an impossibility.”
The TNM is clear that secession should occur peacefully, followed by a positive vote for independence and a negotiated divorce between Austin and Washington.
According to TNM, an independent Texas would initially retain the U.S. dollar, with interest rates controlled by the Federal Reserve.
But over time they would seek a negotiated monetary union with the US or their own currency if this was not offered.
Miller also believes Texas would not be required to pay off any portion of the $34 trillion national debt.
But before that happens, Miller and the TNM will undoubtedly have to overcome some legal hurdles.
Just last month, a request to include an advisory referendum on Texas independence in the March 2024 primary election was rejected by the state Republican Party.
The petition filed by TNM in December contained 139,456 names, well above the five percent threshold of the total vote in the last Republican gubernatorial primary.
But Texas Party Chairman Matt Rinaldi rejected that, claiming the majority of signatures were invalid and missing key information such as addresses, dates of birth and voter registration numbers.
Businessman David Roberts said he believes an independent Texas would be an attractive place to do business because it would be free from federal taxes and regulations
Texas National Guard soldiers wait Friday near the boat ramp where police enter the Rio Grande at Shelby Park
Miller responded angrily, declaring that his movement would “go to war with the Texas Republican Party.”
But an emergency request from the TNM was quickly rejected by the state Supreme Court.
Blank believes the fight for independence on the ballot suggests it has no traction even within Texas Republicans.
He said this is ultimately because state politicians recognized a fact often overlooked by secessionists.
“As much as Texas pride is a key feature of our political culture, so is patriotism,” Blank said.
“The idea that the majority of Texas voters, or even the majority of Texas Republicans, are willing to abandon their relationship with the United States is at odds with the state’s political culture, which is extremely patriotic.”
A 2014 poll conducted by the University of Texas and the Texas Tribune found that only 27 percent of voters identified themselves as “Texans first, Americans second,” with the majority of all demographics seeing their country first.